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this thought market talks to me and I mean that figuratively not literally nikhat you to what you may have read over Twitter I do not hear voices well the periodically I think that my left molar crown does plays some music but that's what we're talking about here I'm constantly sneer the tape not music to get a read on what the big institutional money managers are up to and to do that I need to separate the signal from the noise okay what I mean by that or any given day there might be monster moose and individual stocks it's telling to assume that all these swings are equally significant so when you see the cloud stocks get killed for you but your natural conclusion to draw is that something must be wrong with the cloud when a really loath group bounces it's not much of a stretch to assume that maybe the pain is it less than over but that's just too easy people the truth is some of these moves are a signal and some of them are noise say will mean something it tells you that the stock will probably keep moving the same direction noise the other hand is noise to borrow a line from one of my favorite characters Macbeth noise is a poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage and then is heard no more it is a tale told by an idiot full of sound and fury signifying nothing in other words while single carries a message there's no real take away from noise and not another why Shakespeare would have been just a dynomite investor distinguishing the one from the other is as much an art as science so how do you tell when a major stock swings really Harold something larger or should be ignored before we get into what makes me move meaningful you need to understand that we get major single day advances and declines with no real significance all the time but we try to read some into it good stocks can get ahead of themselves rallying too far too fast before selling off the technical term for this is called overbought and Chartist measure with the slow stochastic oscillator or the williams percentage our awesome talk about these on Tuesdays and off the charts when you're over abroad it means pretty much everybody wants to stock in a given levels already purchased it even the highest quality company can have an overbought stock and when you run out of buyers you almost always get a pullback but this kind of overbought sell-off doesn't tell you anything other than the fact that the stock in question needed to take a breather and digest the gains at the same time even bad socks can rally and for similar reasons if they get oversold because they've come down too quickly you need to get a nice oversold bounce once again though this is the sort of reality it doesn't convey much information it's technical it's noise I stock got oversold it bounced and unless something else changes it can go right back down once it works off that bounce that's that thing you see head and shoulders to go down and down it with some ridges I bring this up because when you see dramatic swings in individual stocks your mom will try to draw a conclusion and it's connects to the fundamentals the real-world facts about how the underlying company is actually doing you think that somehow they relate sometimes that connection does generally exist other times the accidents doctors noise not a single and you'll end up feeling very foolish if you take your cue from that kind of action those who want to know more about this can go back to the Canon on stock markets right here Wow early release no doubt ah confessions of a street act tells us where I described how easy it is to see a stock move a point and convince yourself something's really happening underneath I described a move of a point and Anatomy one-point game you will love it all that really happens is that you have more buyers than sellers at a given moment in a way that may be totally unrelated to the actual company disturbing don't you think voice let's hope of course it's not just the technicals there are plenty of other reasons why stock might explode higher meltdown nothing doesn't fundamentals are all sometimes the market simply makes a mistake and that mistake gets rolled back no greater significance I want you to consider from it the cloud computing stocks if your sales force the most majestic of the cloud Kings policy of acquiring tableau software similar data for an enormous premium in an all-stock transaction at first the pin action Bester's figured that all the other cloud place might be in potential takeover targets to service now workday Adobe Cooper sulfur Twilio octa Z scaler Zendesk the old ward higher on rampant takeover speculation however the very next day the cloud stocks came right back down I mean they were really obliterated biggest surprise prize the Salesforce tableau type was more of a one-off transaction Salesforce needed a data analytics platform and they had a unique opportunity which is why they agreed to pay such a huge premium EV cloud they delay analytics Salesforce one of them when Wall Street realized that the other cloud place probably weren't going to be bought any time soon their stocks just plummeted and once again it meant nothing you only take away from that cloud pullback was that they never should have been up in the first place because the tableau news was again Sooey Genesis we did say in law school so what kind of action carries real sentiments how do you know when a big move is foreshadowing something even bigger all right there's a lot of signal that's obvious a couple reports a blowout course and it's not course obvious an analyst cuts estimates stop plummets obvious that's just business usual and it's why I like to look it for the unusual company catches analyst downgrading the stock goes up ooh interesting signal counterintuitive in my experience when the stock confuses a goal or on bad news it often means that stock is putting in a significant bottom and it's ready to rock it higher I like that but the same time gonna couple reports of fantastic order with great guidance Bulls comfortable you have to stop get slammed oh boy it means Wall Street police that this company's looking at its last good quarter that happens very often when you're stopped for some positive news I gotta tell you something that is the definition of a possible top for the most part though you can't decide for hidden messages in the way stocks are trading except in some rare cases you probably shouldn't even try it's important to know what's working and what's not working and then you get Macker and you market but you can't let your money management decision to be completely be completely guided by what's in or out of style on the wall street fashion show I always tell you that otherwise you end up owning stocks just because they're going higher oh that's a terrible place to be because you don't know what to do when they never we start coming down the bottom line when you're evaluating a stock take your cue from the fundamentals the underlying company don't put too much significance on day to day gyrations in the share price sometimes you get you can extrapolate a great deal from a big move in individual stock but more often it's telling you something you already know or it's just noise it means nothing let's go to Dell and Florida Dell booyah Kramer first time long time here from the University of Florida whoa love that go Gators hey yeah and your book real money you say that a company doing and in the whole secondary is not one you want to be invested in so I'm wondering is this rule without exception or are there circumstances where it's okay for a not yet profitable company to do a secondary offering and expand while they can if there's a particular piece of news that is driving the stock up and it's really positive news and they do a secondary I might get behind it on a little case-by-case but typically you know I'm just I'm suspicious I'm critical and that's the way to play it how about a DJ in Ohio indeed yeah booyah Jim oh yeah I'm a longtime listener I appreciate you taking my ball oh come on it did you I love it what's going on so you always suggest owning index funds in a portfolio absolutely and my question for you is two part one what percentage of my portfolio should be in index funds versus individual equities and number two you also suggest owning index funds that track the SMP do you also indicate also suggests that you should own sector related index funds in addition to a general S&P for example and health right no I definitely don't want sector related I think that those are wrong I with the full panoply that's why I like yesterday 500 I think that it should be 85 tonight for sending index fund the rest is your made money for individual stocks that you can still make a lot of make a lot of money and write no index funds are the bedrock I wish it weren't the case but you know what I gotta be worried too I do think individual stocks with a lot of homework can make you more money right fundamentals matter knock date any moves there's much more minute money add I won't bring a word of warning for the next time we see a big wave of upcoming IPOs oh you're not gonna want to miss this then you may want to do the right thing but if it's for the wrong reason I well it'll cost you I'll explain and I'm taking your question to sweep my tweet so send them my way with hashtag mayor tweets and stay with h you
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