저자: RakeshJhunjhunwala · 외국인
요약 보기
첫 줄: 라케시 준준왈라가 투자 판단 프레임(기회→경쟁력→확장성→경영진→자본효율·지배구조→매수가격)을 설명한 영상으로, 특정 종목·자산에 대한 가격 예측은 없음. 투자 판단 1단계 — 기회: 수요가 있는 산업에 투자해야 하며, 수요가 자연스럽게 존재하는 곳을 선호. 소비재(치약 등)의 수요 성장 가능성, 에탄올 플랜트 등 기회 확대 사례를 예로 듦. 투자 판단 2단계 — 경쟁력: 자본주의에서는 기회만으로 부족하고 경쟁력과 수익성이 필요. 기술·문화·진입장벽(세금, 입지, 자본 등)이 수익성을 뒷받침. 투자 판단 3단계 — 확장성: 소형주 중 대형주가 될 기업을 찾는 것이 핵심. 자본·기술·야망보다 경영 방식(시스템, 프로세스, 권한 위임)이 확장의 관건이라고 강조. 경영진 평가: 시장에서 경영진의 평판과 실적을 보고 판단하며, 한두 번 미팅으로는 파악이 어렵다고 설명. 지배구조: 기업이 주주·직원·사회 등 이해관계자를 어떻게 대하는지로 정의. 핵심 기업 기준: 낮은 자본으로 성장하고, 외상 매입·현금 판매 구조를 가진 기업이 좋다고 제시. 주가수익비율(PER) 상위 기업 중 이런 특성이 나타난다고 언급. 매수 가격: 가격이 가장 중요하다고 강조. 1999년 United Spirits 지분 매수 사례(이후 큰 수익)와, Hindustan Unilever가 11년간 주가가 오르지 않았던 사례(2001~2012)를 들어 매수 가격의 중요성을 설명. 리스크·조건: 확장성 부족, 경쟁 과열, 경영 방식 문제를 주요 리스크로 제시. 투자는 '정보가 제한된 무지' 속에서 직관에 의존하는 측면이 크다고 언급. 출연자 전망: 특정 종목·지수에 대한 향후 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
then he asking a question how do I how do I analyze an investment a lot of people think that you know I have an investment philosophy I think I'm too young to a philosophy you'll find most investors are white hair right and they get better with time and they and the quest to learn is a journey and not a destination so I think rather than saying I have a philosophy I think I have an investment approach or a thought the first thing I look at is a without opportunities there can be no economic activity and without economic activity there can be no profit for example when I look at Colgate I look at the present demand for toothpast in India and the potentially for the growth in in demand for enforces became enforces partly because what enforces was but ences also became ences but enforces did not create the internet or enforces never Force you the explosion in the use of Information Technology but that was one of the key ingredients and reasons why enforces TCS Vio and other software companies were successful why because opportunity just expanded right so I first look at Opportunity if you look at I mean I made a lot of money in compan called PR why because the the need to make ethanol plants the opportunity of ethanol just you know just went through the roof so first thing I look for opportunity unfortunately I think retail is one industry which has one of the highest opportunities in this country and I call it external you can do internal things to create demand but it is too taxing and that's not the favorite place where I want to invest I want to invest where demand naturally exists then in then this is a very important part of my investment invested rally a large investment because I think there is no question that the usage of pesticides and seeds and all other agricultural inputs has to go through the roof because you cannot increase food production without increasing productivity and this is one of the only means of increasing productivity one of the main means so the Appo for rallies is going to go through the room then I look at competitive ability you know in a in a in a capitalist Society or a free Society you cannot make profit just one opportunity you got to be competitive you got to be profitable those profits can be driven by technology they can be driven I think culture is very important company they can be driven by a culture they can be driven by barriers which could arise because of maybe taxes location Capital so I try zero on try and understand a company zero on in its competitive ability or what it already has in relation to the opportunity and the price third you know what I look at is my friend said they should I invest in large cap companies or small cap companies I said no we should invest in the small cap companies which will become the large caps what do you need for that you need scalability and believe me you know I saw marui K said when I grow will I be a Mercedes I think they're prophetic words how does a small organization grow into a large organization right when I invested in Titan at 500 cres I made a lot I made a lot of money part was Titan today is 11,000 compan and great are the challenges of skill Capital ambition especially smaller organizations I've seen entrepreneurs don't want to give up control they don't want system they don't want processes they still want to work on intuition right so therefore I think working on intuition up to a point is extremely important right but you got to have some systems and processes they don't want to delegate power opportunity will be limited competive intensity will be very high so it is very very important to judge whether the company will be able to scale I call it scalability then of course I look for management and how do you find out whether you have good management or not I mean you know first thing I see is say no in the market does the market play the market does the management play the market and then in one meeting or two meeting is very really difficult to judge but you know we investors we invest I invest in in a jewelry company I invest in a software company I invest in a hotel company I invest in a footware company finally I think we invest out of informed ignorance we have some information but that is very limited in relation to what our ignorance is so finally we invest out of intuition so then you have to individually feel and every management carries a reputation I think that's what is also very important is Corporate governance what kind of corporate governance and I Define corporate governance as how the company views all stakeholders with Society with employees with shareholders right and of course I belong I believe in investing a lot of key companies why I call them key companies they should carry two characteristics that capital investment and profitability ratio should be I mean they should need very low capital in order to enhance growth right and they should buy on credit and sell in cash I think if these if a company can these two characters it has the highest p in the markets you go to any you should take the top 50 PS in the stock market price earning ratios 45 companies will carry this and they should be you know EV positive and last but not the least sir what I buy is important at what price I buy is extremely important you know I made lot of money I bought in 99 I bought 5% United BR and United Spirits for about 6 CR of rupees if I had held on to that investment today it would be worth 2,000 crores and everybody told me of course I sold at 50 60 crores everybody told me you're buying Willam Mal shares he's a thief he's this he's that nobody ever gained from him but to my common sense I was getting 55% of the Indian liquor industry not for a market cap but for Enterprise value of 200 and for a person like to have four drinks a day he knew the value of that money of that you know value you can't believe the Indian liquor industry both beer and whiskey and every item 55% at a price value of 200 cres to my common I said no I don't want to so it's important what you buy a lot of people you know Hindustan liver talk fmcg if I tell you you'll be shocked in 2001 at the index of 2900 the price of liver was 327 liver did not exceed that price for 11 years and the index went from 2900 to 23 22,000 liver exceeded that price only in 2012 or 139 so if you invested in liver for 11 years except dividends you had no returns when the market had gone up 78 times
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