Peter Schiff: “What's Coming Is WORSE Than A Recession...” (2026 Warning)

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01. Can you use this to pay your employees? Can you use this to pay for your expenses? No, you cannot use this as savings. Bills. Yes, you can. But, but, but then we go back to the network effect, Peter. And then there's no way that the dollar, and we all have to admit this, has the biggest network effect that we've ever seen in human history.

02. Now, we may not like it, but it is what it is. When we look at the entire global monetary system, the banks, by the way, the banks benefit enormously from this dollar monetary system and this network effect, right? Uh, you're looking at multinational corporations. Because like this, this is really, really getting into a dead end right here.

03. Uh, but what if you only have one ledger, right? So as an example I'll take it it's important that everything is denominated in dollars, right? In such a world, prices would also skyrocket because if you create all this credit, and it creates demand, but there is no supply associated with it. There was no production that was not consumed, because when you create credit from savings, there is underconsumption.

04. Someone who saves does not consume, and this allows them to buy more goods and services with borrowed money. But if no one reduces their consumption and credit is simply created, then there is just a massive increase in prices because you don't have that consumption. Right and wrong. So, productivity is key.

05. Right? So, if all this bank lending that creates this new money supply is going to unproductive assets , then you're right. You will have more currency units, sorry, chasing the same or fewer goods and services. And if you combine this with the speed of circulation, it will increase the level of consumer prices by a full 100%.

06. But if you have these banks creating this new money supply for productive purposes, like lending to a widget maker to make more widgets, then you won't do that because now you're increasing the supply of goods and services along with the money supply. Right. Yes, I mean, but at least then we agree that to the extent that this process is financed by consumer credit or government spending, it is purely inflationary.

07. Yes, and government spending is also key because not all government spending is created equal. So if we look at the government spending that we saw throughout 2021 as an example of stimulus checks, it increases the velocity significantly. And that's where you'll get acceleration in consumer prices. But, if that's the case.

08. Well, that's what most government spending does. These are transfer payments, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, government pensions , even military. None of these are productive investments. It's all consumption. And then you have mortgages , car loans, student loans, credit cards. All of this...

09. But, if it's not productive, but it's not productive, then wo n't it lead to inflation? Yes, it must. No, no, no, no, no. Well, again, are we talking about Peter's definition or most people's definition of inflation? There is only one definition. I...I did n't make it up. Just look in an old dictionary and you will get the correct definition.

10. Yes, but, but today most people, when you say inflation, uh , they think of an acceleration or an increase... Yes, of course, intentionally. That it's no coincidence that people don't understand inflation. They don't understand it because the government wants to blame the private sector for inflation.

11. They want to blame inflation on prices, not the money supply. Okay, but let's talk about the mechanics, not necessarily the semantics, uh, that's involved. So, uh , I... If you go back, and I think, Maro, you were doing this, like, in the 1950s, uh, you see that this system that we're talking about, this dollar monetary system, the Euro-dollar system, whatever you want to call it, is actually a network of banks outside of the United States.

12. And it was, uh, a free market invention, uh, because they didn't have enough dollars in circulation after the Bretton Woods system, so they had to find a way to create more dollars. They did n't have bank reserves, and we didn't have the huge deficits that we have now, so you didn't have enough dollars being taken out of the United States.

13. So they started creating this money, which is essentially loans denominated in dollars. And this is the monetary system we have today . And this was the result of the free market. Um, it wasn't the result of government intervention or forcing them to do X, Y, and Z. So the system that we have today , uh, where they don't necessarily...

14. Now they can use bank reserves to make payments, uh, but they don't necessarily need those bank reserves, or they don't need savings, or they don't need dollars to create more dollars. And the key is that they borrow it for existence. So if... uh, as an example, uh, there's less demand for dollars in the world , uh, because the Fed's balance sheet is a very small percentage of the world's dollar aggregate M2.

15. If you have less demand, you have more loans being repaid because most of these loans are short-term and the actual supply of dollars is shrinking . And that's one of the things that is...There are a lot of bugs in the system, but that's definitely one of its features. Come on, Pierre. Yes, at the heart of every discussion about inflation is a simple but controversial question.

16. Does new lending raise prices, or does it also raise production ? When banks borrow money to finance actual production, new goods, new capacity, the extra money is offset by additional supply, which controls prices. But when credit goes to net consumption, government transfers, stimulus checks, consumer loans, there is no new production to absorb it.

17. More currency chases the same goods, and prices rise. The argument is not whether credit expansion matters, but whether today's spending creates real wealth or simply inflates the numbers. I mean, the problem is that we're not contracting the money supply as much as we should, especially during a recession.

18. You should get a reduction in the money supply. Uh, that's it, that's the whole idea. But you can't say that, um , even though, you know, the free market created the concept of bank credit , that today it's not a free market because there's so much government intervention in the banking system that there's almost no free market forces.

19. I agree. And the reason the banking system is so fragile, the reason that virtually the entire U.S. banking system is insolvent today, is because of government intervention in the banking system. What do you mean by insolvency? What do you mean by insolvency, Peter? Well, I think all the big banks in the US would go bankrupt if the government stopped its, uh , support.

20. So, if you know, if the U.S. government were to actually say, "Look, there's no more deposit insurance," institutions would have to stand and fall on their own creditworthiness. I think all the big banks will go bankrupt. I do n't think it's just because the government supported them. And I think they'll all go bankrupt even with government support, except they won't go bankrupt because they'll be bailed out, right?

21. So they won't be allowed to go bankrupt because they're too big to go bankrupt, but I think they're in a position where they will go bankrupt. You know, if we had an economic downturn, say, like we had during the Great Depression, the current banking system would be much worse than the one we had then.