저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
Fort Knox 금 보유 의혹을 다루며 1971년 이후 금 태환 의무가 없어 실물 확인 관심이 낮았다고 설명. 실사가 이뤄지면 금 부족 시 금값 상승을 예상하나 시장이 반응할지는 불확실. 관세는 미국 소비자에게 부담이며 무역적자(월 1530억 달러)는 구조적 문제로 관세로 해결 어렵다고 봄. 달러는 고평가로 하락 전망, 미국은 이미 경기침체 상태라고 주장.
다듬은 글
The Mystery of Fort Knox in Kentucky. Does it still hold American gold, or is it just an empty vault? The United States has long claimed that Fort Knox holds about 147 million ounces of gold, worth hundreds of billions of dollars. But skepticism is growing. It's a question that has fueled speculation for decades, becoming something of a modern financial folklore.
Well, renowned market commentator Peter Shipp will join the discussion on this. Peter, thank you very much for joining us. Well , I'm glad. Thank you for inviting me. Well, Peter, let's start with how we got here. I mean, how does this question get woven into a kind of financial folklore with all this doubt about the gold at Fort Knox?
How did we get here? Well, you know, no one has really checked it, I think, since the 1950s. So there's always a rumor that, well, maybe he's not there. You know, I mean , I would assume that the gold is there, because if it wasn't there, then obviously a lot of people would know about it . I think it would have been hard to keep it a secret all these years.
It is possible that some of this gold was leased. Perhaps not all the gold is in place. Maybe that's part of the problem. But you know, at one time the gold had to be there because it was our money. Um, the Federal Reserve notes we had were exchangeable for gold. They were backed by real money, that is, gold.
And the gold, I think most of it was stored there, at Fort Knox. But if you had Federal Reserve notes, you were entitled to gold. So the gold had to be there, and it had to be verified, because our creditors had to know that we had enough gold to meet our obligations to pay the gold. But since 1971 we have had no obligation to pay anything.
We have defaulted on our promissory notes. And so no one really cared how much gold was in Fort Knox, because no one had any right to it. But theoretically, gold is important, uh, because it means the United States has an asset that can be used to support the dollar. Because if the dollar came under, you know, a lot of pressure in the currency markets, the U.S.
government would have the intention of selling it to buy up dollars to support the price. But if we don't have gold, then we do n't really have anything that can be used to support the value of our fiat currency. Yes. And I want to talk about the impact of the dollar in a moment. Now, Elon Musk's new government efficiency department, Dodge, is calling for an audit.
And Trump himself, mind you, says that he can personally inspect this storage facility. So, you've had heated conversations about this. I mean, that's one thing, but I wonder how seriously the market takes this, Peter? I do n't know if it, uh, you know, really reacts to that in any way. I mean, the price of gold has been rising for some time now.
So I don't think the recent growth has anything to do with, you know, Fort Knox and whether there will be an audit or whether all the gold will be there. But I think if there is a significant shortage of gold at Fort Knox, if it is actually found, then I expect a much higher price for gold. But I, I, I don't think that's true.
I think there is a purpose. You know, I want to look at some of these scenarios . I mean, let's look at some of them. First, if a full independent audit takes place and confirms that every ounce of gold is indeed accounted for, what happens next? Well, I don't think anything will happen because I don't think the market is pricing based on the lack of gold.
So, I think if there's no gold there , it will be a surprise to the markets. Now, if the opposite were to happen, that is, if the audit revealed that some of the gold had disappeared or, worse yet, most of it had disappeared, what would that do to the currency markets and everything related to them ?
Well, that means the price of gold should go up significantly because there isn't as much of it as we thought, right? This entire proposal will not exist. And I mean, it will exist, but it just exists in a different proposition that we know about. Er, gold held by the public, or gold held by foreign governments.
Er , but it won't be stored by the US government, which would be a problem. And it's interesting that all this is happening when gold prices are reaching record highs. I wonder how this factor enters into this debate. Well, that might be one reason why people are starting to doubt whether we really have gold.
But I think, you know, right now, with the Trump presidency and some of the people who are there , a lot of people are looking for answers, right? They, you know, have a lot of, uh, potential, uh, problems that have arisen. They're trying to release, uh, all of Epstein's files right now. They make, you know, an agreement about this .
I don't know if people are trying to get something more. They're looking for, uh , 9/11 records, or the Kennedy assassinations, or, you know? And so, one of the, uh, theories that's out there, I hesitate to call it a conspiracy theory, but I guess it would involve a conspiracy to keep it a secret , but one of the questions that's been around for decades is, do we have all the gold that we claim to have, or has the U.S.
government already sold that gold in an attempt to suppress the price of gold? And this issue has been around for some time. And people think: well, now that Trump is in the White House, we can be transparent. We can find out for sure, you know, is there any truth to this, uh, this speculation that there's no gold there, or is there really gold there ?
You know, I know that Stephen Minutian, who was, uh, Trump's first Treasury Secretary, I heard him interviewed, and he said he went down to the vault and said the target was there. I don't know how carefully he studied it, whether he counted everything, you know, what he did, but he seems pretty confident that the target is there.
Yes. Regarding this, Peter, I wonder what the review should actually include. I mean, the exercise should be convincing. It's probably more than just someone walking around with a tablet and saying, "Yeah, it's there." How do you think this should turn out? Yes. Well, you're going to need, you're going to need a real audit.
I mean, someone, you know, a professional auditor, and they do audits of gold vaults, private vaults are constantly being audited to make sure the gold is there. But you need a team of auditors who can account for all the gold and conduct its analysis. You know, making sure it's not some tungsten bar painted gold , you know, and making sure it's real gold, which they can do, and they can look at the serial numbers of the bars and match them to what the government is supposed to have, and they can see if it's all there.
If this turns into a political spectacle where Trump, Musk, and others only make headlines, will that diminish the seriousness of the problem historically and now? I don't know what their intentions are. Do they want to try to, um, put the US back on some kind of gold standard, which would be a very positive development.
So maybe that's one of the reasons why they need to check how much gold, um, they have there. Um, but no, I don't know what else they could be thinking. I want to quickly switch my attention to the currency markets while I let you go. I mean, we've seen , uh, in the last few hours, the US dollar index rise to a two-mile high on the back of President Trump's announcement of upcoming tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China.
How do these events affect the strength of the dollar? I mean , what are the broader implications for the global economy? What are you watching? Well, the dollar, I think, is overvalued. Uh, it got bitten by speculators, actually, uh, you know , because of its safe haven status, so- called safe haven and reserve status.
I don't think the tariffs don't affect the Chinese, the Canadians, or the Mexicans, although they do affect, uh, some companies there , but the tariffs do affect the Americans. These are consumption taxes for American citizens, and they are aimed at imported goods from these countries. So, Americans will pay taxes, but there will be consequences, because if Americans can no longer afford to buy, uh, as many goods from these countries, then the businesses that sold these goods will have to find other customers.
So either they will have to look for customers in other countries to buy these goods, or their own citizens will buy these goods, or they will stop producing these goods, uh, because there won't be enough demand, and they will produce something else, uh, with their capital, their labor, and their land.
Uh, but, you know, there will be an impact, but it's the Americans who pay, they pay the tariffs. But I don't think tariffs will be enough to, uh, solve our problems that we have in America. We have a huge budget deficit. I don't think they will collect enough revenue through tariffs to offset the tax cuts, let alone the increase in government spending we will get from higher interest rates on the debt, Social Security, defense, and all the other costs that are constantly rising.
Even if Dodge manages to cut a lot of waste, fraud, and abuse, you know, they won't get rid of enough of that to offset all the other cost increases. And I don't think our trade deficit, you know, we just got the trade deficit today for January. I mean, it was a real shock. I mean, it's just unheard of to have such a large deficit.
This is an all-time record high. Nothing compares. That was a merchandise trade deficit of $153 billion in one month. Just absolutely phenomenal. Perhaps part of this is due to companies trying to import goods before the tariffs are implemented. Uh, but the trend was already accelerating towards that.
So that's a terrible number. And tariffs won't fix the situation. Uh, you know, the United States simply doesn't have the industrial capacity to produce the goods that we currently import. And in order to get this capacity, it will take many, many years of capital investment, rebuilding supply chains, and training employees.
And this cannot be done without a massive recession between now and then. Uh, which would be a necessary, uh, you know, part of the medication, even though it might be painful for a lot of people. This is what we need. Uh, you know, we need higher interest rates. We need more savings and investments.
We need less consumer spending, government spending, and consumption. But I don't see that happening. So I just look at tariffs as a tax increase, uh, for Americans, and I-I think the impact here will be much greater than overseas. I also don't think it's good for the dollar. I think the dollar is falling, you know.
Yes. Bill, as I wrap up and let you go, I just want to focus on one last point. You see, a recession is inevitable. Well, I think we've been in a recession in the United States for a while now. That's why Donald Trump was elected, because voters, you know, are living in a recession, and they're hoping for change.
That's why, you know, the economy was the number one problem, because it's so bad, and it's getting worse. And I guess I think the statistics will eventually bear that out. But I think we're in a recession, and maybe the government will go back and rework the data and officially declare that the recession started, you know, in early 2024, maybe even earlier, or, you know, earlier.
Well , we'll have to stop there. Well, thank you very much, famous market commentator Peter. I appreciate your time. Okay, take care of yourself.
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