저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2020년 7월 기준 시장은 경기방어·기술주 쏠림(안전자산 선호)으로 과열 양상이나, 저금리와 유동성 덕분에 중기(2~3년)는 버블이 아니라고 봄. 금리가 오르는 2023년경 조정 가능성 언급. 보유 종목은 레모네이드, 테슬라, 이츠이, 레드핀, 펠로톤, 아마존, 애플 등 장기 보유 위주이며 Dave&Buster's·Cheesecake Factory 등 리커버리주는 파산 위험을 감안한 투기적 투자로 언급. 주장 근거로 M1 포트폴리오 수익률 47.7%, 테슬라 자율주행 주행거리 등을 제시.
다듬은 글
ive you a no-nonsense explanation of what my stock market investing strategy has been and whether or not I think we're in a bubble and my favorite stock picks for the time being now no guarantees that these will be successful for you going forward but let's be real I've been plowing money into the stock market since the bottom of the market on March 23rd and I'm gonna pop up here an m1 finance portfolio I'm gonna blur out the actual stock names because well that would kind of give away some of the parts of the video that we're going to talk about but anyway as you can see this m1 Finance account that I opened this year has obviously done very well it's returned 47.7% which on this portfolio is about 1.2 million dollars now I do also personally love using the Weeble app which you should use as well because this video is sponsored by weeble if you open an account with weeble you will get a 2 completely free stocks as long as you deposit $100 but for now let's get into the topic of the video here's how I'm going to break this video down first I'm going to give you some background that's very important for understanding the rest of what's going on then I'm going to explain what I believe is currently happening then I'm going to talk about my seven favorite stocks and why I'm investing in them so heavily as well as some of the more risky ones then I'm going to explain whether or not we are in a bubble in my opinion alright let's get started first let me start with the stock market and what's changed as some of you might think that this initial part sounds a little redundant but I encourage you to listen to it because of the big change that happened so you have to understand some of this is a little baseline first here's the baseline there are two real types of stocks in the kind of economy that we're in right now there are recession stocks and there are recovery stocks recession stocks are stocks that do well in a recession zoom Apple Tesla technology companies Walmart Apple whatever Chipotle is even in there either honestly whatever it's in there then you've got the recovery stocks those are companies like the traditional restaurants airlines cruise lines at travel hotels casinos the Simon Property Group the Dave & Buster's those are the recovery stocks in march/april and the first half of May we could really play either of these it didn't matter what we were buying because everything was kind of what we called a barbell that is you kind of go to lift up a barbell oh it's really heavy and it's kind of leaning to one side one day and then it's leaning to the other side the next day but all in all you're kind of still lifting it up and unless there's that April 3rd double dip we saw a little bit and then kind of things went back up that was kind of what the market was like so it didn't matter which side you were on in fact if you had a little bit over here a little bit over here it made you have less heart palpitations and made you feel like you didn't need life insurance like what you can get in the lake down below but the problem is things changed it's kind of like the weights on the recovery stocks that Airlines the cruise lines and the travel groups kind of fell on to the floor and spilled onto the floor and then that kind of guy lifts it up by more and more defying gravity tech stocks that is the tech stocks and all the recession based stocks are just blowing the lids out of everybody's earnings targets and price targets and because of that at the end of May in the beginning of June I stopped investing in the recovery stocks I stopped putting new money into the Simon Property Group the Dave & Buster's and things like that I shuffled around a little bit of money but I stopped putting new money into those because I saw that tank was just jumping past everything else and here's why I think we're seeing what we're seeing now number one we're seeing a flight to safety everybody who's been holding on to the recovery stocks you know the Dave & Buster's the airlines the restaurants right now is foam going hard because the tech stocks are doing so well and so I believe a lot of people are moving over from these to the tech stocks leading to new highs at the tech stocks again Amazon Apple Tesla right I mean Tesla's like over $1300 it's been three days in a row of over 10 percent gains at Tesla it's insane the second problem is the people have been sitting on the sidelines who have been waiting for a double dip are possibly starting to realize that okay maybe there's not going to be a double dip maybe now is the time to get in okay well what am I gonna buy I don't know do I want to buy you know the untouchables like the restaurants or the Dave & Buster's or do I want to buy what's been doing really freaking well the Tesla the Etsy and the Amazon and so on and I think that's exactly what people are doing and third obviously this can't have a video about stocks without talking about the money printer the fed's injection into the market has been so unprecedented but we're starting to see the massive available cash pile flowing right kind of into the market aka the stock market it's kind of like the rich get richer right and that's why it's so frustrating to see this kind of stimulus happen for the market and for big corporations for big companies and poor people get left behind it's not fair it's people without assets are getting screwed in situations like this pandemics make poor people poor recessions make poor people poor and rich people more it like it doesn't make sense anyway now many of you in my course already know a lot of what I'm talking about because I talk about this every single day in the livestreams as it's happening I tell you what my changes are anyway let's keep going on for those of you that aren't in that so if you're of course remember sorry some of this might already sound too familiar now The Untouchables like David Buster's the cruise lines and the airlines and so on and so forth right now they're pretty dirty and they've been weighed down a lot they are massively on sale and you'd think that more money would flow into these but the reality is right now a lot of hedge funds and people are looking at the dirty untouchable companies and they're saying you know what we have bankruptcy risks we have risks of restructuring we have risks of a share dilution that is issuing more shares which makes my shares less valuable we have risks of long term struggles paying off all this fat debt nobody even cares anymore if the Main Street loan program comes around when bars in Miami keep getting re closed and where do Penang is the phrase now I guess how are these companies ever supposed to be profitable again and so this is why we're getting so much of this money consolidating in my opinion into what already seem like very expensive companies and that's a very fair complaint that comes up to why our valuations so high valuations that tech companies are historically way high I mean everything we look at it's like everything's overvalued and right now it's quite frankly in my opinion because the fundamentals aren't what matter right now which is terrible like me just saying the fundamentals aren't what matter right now terrible it's a bad way to invest the reality is that's a bad way to invest in my opinion but the reason that is doing so well right now that is ignoring the fundamentals and focusing on tech and safety is solely because of safety where are you guaranteed to do well whether or not there is a pandemic in the tech sector where are you probably pretty much guaranteed to do well over the long run in the tech sector so what you're really doing is you're paying a premium and you're really paying to play right now and that's why hedge funds and investors are bending over basically jumping into these tech stocks because bonds are yielding nothings savings are yielding nothing and anybody who's holding the untouchables is pulling their hair out because the untouchable airlines and cruise lines and restaurant groups are falling way behind every dollar you have and one of the losers right now is sucking compared to Apple that reaches a new high every day Shopify Etsy whatever and again it makes sense because we're in a pandemic these companies they don't face bankruptcy risks and they're going to be here whether or not there's a pandemic that makes them safer place and I think there are a lot of people who are looking for what is a safe option right now it's not bonds it's not savings and it's not Dave and Buster's because that's risky even though that has a better chance of you know two to three xìng faster than Tesla might hold on who knows at this rate Tesla and Amazon and the big tech companies are where people at least feel like they have safety right now that does not mean that there actually is safety there could be a rebalancing and going a reversion to the fundamentals and then prices might come substantially down we'll see but let's talk about what's happening now and what I'm doing with my portfolio so first in the middle of May I removed some of my recovery holdings into Simon Property Group I got rid of Delta and they move that into Simon because their sister companies I talk about that in the money in stock course how I tracked sister companies and stuff like that you know Carnival is another one that that's a sister company as well with like Dave and Buster's for example but I also put some of my portfolio into Dave and Busters and all-in-all I had some around 15% at the end of may of my portfolio in Dave & Buster's and the Simon Property Group that means 85 percent of my portfolio was in these tech companies which is why the gains are what they are on my portfolio the vast majority of my portfolio has been based on these very well performing at least recently tech companies now they can totally collapse going forward but we will see let's now in the meantime talk about some specific stock picks why I like them and what I'm doing from here on because it's easy to talk about the past it's hard to try to understand what the future might look like number one lemonade a lemonade is an insurance company that I announced on their IPO day last Friday in my course and I even mentioned it on the art stimulus videos that I was buying into that company I bought in right when the market opened at around $55 per share it's now somewhere around $80 per share and it went as high as like 92 which this is so normal to see this kind of volatility on an IPO very very very normal lemonade is an insurance company but rather than investing in an insurance company that goes and invests kind of the money the insurance float that they have where you're kind of subject to the claim cycle lemonade in my opinion is a bit different I spent the weekend reading their earnings report in addition to what I read on Friday and this is a company that really is focused on customer acquisition and artificial intelligence to determine the likelihood of claims for example and this was mind blowing but when you go through the application process you're given a copy of their terms of services I hear the terms of services and since it's all electronic is supposed to click on it right but most of us don't they factor your decision as to whether or not you actually read the terms of services into your policies likelihood of having a claim that's insane they use the same artificial intelligence to pay claims detect fraud and write policies they also make it very easy to determine what kind of options you want for your policy which is really friendly for people who don't fully understand insurance it makes it very easy to say oh yeah I'll pay five bucks more a month for that or five bucks more a month for that and it's a great way to incremental e increase the profit the insurance company can make unfortunately they don't do rental properties yet they just do like renters insurance and homeowners insurance and are coming out with pet insurance but they boast having a very strong retention base specifically from Millennials that is of the Millennials and the people that use lemonade 90% of them say that they're not going to leave and this is proven by the data that lemonade already has they have a very strong retention rate this is really important because lemonade spends a lot of money on marketing that's why the company looks like it's losing so much money and it doesn't really look like it's losing autumn money it is losing money but the money that they spend in marketing pays for itself within about two years which is a very quick return and if they can maintain the long-term retention and customer satisfaction this insurance company has the possibility of being a very very good growth company to invest him know as with any IPO it's high risk so unless you're interested in high risk this is not a company to invest in heck if you're interested in I risk you probably like Dave & Buster's in my opinion if you want low risk you go with like an apple super cash heavy maybe less growth to come in the future but a great solid company or just park it in an index fund Vegas if you really wanted risk and fluctuation you could go buy Bitcoin although some people would argue with me on that and say that bitcoin is less risky than some of these stocks but I guess that's a debate for a different day and over a nice ice-cold schooner of beer when the bars finally open up again but anyway this company also expects to add new policy options in the future and they offload 75% of their risk through reinsurance their goal is really to have a predictable stream of profit which the cool thing about that is it's gonna make my life easy I don't have to do crazy adjustments and trying to value the company again the company's lost money and in their initial perspective initial prospectus so for me this company is a 10-year hold no sell during that 10 years we'll see it's a company that I'm bullish on we will see they do have shared dilution happening in January so mark your calendar for January there are not a lot of shares outstanding right now I think we've got about 11 million shares outstanding right now out of about 55 million that are supposed to be outstanding now unlike niccola though there is a 180 day ban on these extra shares could be sold so that's good speaking of Nicola Nicola is getting whacked today they're down almost 14% and this is what happens when type investors get approval to sell their shares and they all of a sudden start flooding the market with a bunch more shares who knows this might create a buying opportunity for Nicholas knock them number two favorite Tesla when Tesla hits two million dollar or I'm sorry two million vehicles produced in my opinion it's a fair value is about two thousand dollars for the stock that is two million cars produced two thousand dollars for the stock value that's at about 40 times earnings not even including Tesla solar or Tesla insurance Tesla solar is becoming the staple for a cup of the company and it's barely even mentioned it's innovating the solar lease systems that they have where you can cancel at any time I've been looking into getting solar Tesla solar the customer service is phenomenal it's all just right up there with the cars customer service which I will say it first Tesla customer service you know it had some issues okay there was some quality control problems but the increasing propensity of this company to get better and better every single day is absolutely astonishing and I expect their solar roofs to be massively profitable as well Tesla insurance also stands to be cheaper than the competitors and doesn't really compete with lemonade because this is car insurance and they don't do car insurance but anyway Tesla wholly ensures their own product and their product is based on their artificial intelligence that is their self-driving cars which Tesla has three billion miles of autonomous driving on actual roads not in simulations Google's way Moe is in number two at twenty million miles which means Tesla is a hundred fifty times as far along in terms of autonomous driving as Google is in terms of miles driven on actual roads so Tesla 10 year no cell for me number three is Etsy Etsy is a relatively affordable stock next to the insanely price Shopify and Wayfair Etsy has seen tremendous gains are during the lockdown as small businesses across the country are shut down or struggling at sea well has been the outlet for those small businesses who are struggling Etsy doesn't rely on the heavy furniture shipping industry and it's easy for small businesses to get a start on Etsy which makes Etsy from me I originally bought Etsy heavily in the 70s and I have a target of about $130 per share for Etsy but this is actually with a richer valuation than Tesla but it's a much lower valuation than Shopify or Wayfarer so I haven't been adding incredibly heavily to Etsy but Etsy is a good portion of my portfolio although if I were going to add today as crazy as it sounds I'd probably rather add to lemonade or Tesla although I do still love Etsy and I will not leave them behind number four is Redfin Redfin stands to be the largest disrupter to real estate agents and as a real estate broker in case you don't know I'm the real estate broker I got my face on my car I first started investing in red fin as a way to hedge against myself going bankrupt because of red fin that is if redfin did so well that I ended up going bankrupt at least my red van stock was probably doing well that's when I started being interested in investing in red fin and I personally think the transition to red fin as being a domination in the real estate space is still five to ten years away but the thing is red fin knows how to sell being a broker I shake my head at how many agents are too cheap to get a professional photographer do proper listing prep and to fix up the properties before they sell them let alone do 3d scans red fin does all of that and at a lower price than what agents usually charge this is going to be very very popular with Millennials who are delaying home ownership which again delays how long I think it'll be until well red fin becomes much more dominant unless of course agents start picking up the slack and providing more value or maybe that's just what I teach in my real estate agent course where I teach you how to use the trademarked slogan providing more and no pressure agent anyway red fin is going to dominate the real estate space at some point within this next decade especially since I'm calling this the frugal decade that's my opinion now pricing red fin is a little bit more difficult I initially bought red fin heavily at 17 a little bit of 10 and some in the high 20s a little bit in the low 30s and obviously now their price said about $43 so you know big wins so far but in my opinion the big big win is coming when red fin has the ability to automate home showings we know this is just a of time think about it you open up the Redfin app they've already got your ID they've got that your pre-approval letter and they're already doing redfin loans so you've got everything on your phone in theory you could walk into a house and I'm speculating here but I see this happening you take your phone swab it over a lockbox the house unlocks you go in honey I like this home you click a button on your phone and boom you just made an offer on it that's my expectation for the future of real estate and that is not what the real estate agents who follow me are going to want to hear but it's what you need to hear because if you don't pay attention to your risk factors you're lying to yourself and I'd rather be upfront and honest now pay attention to this company it's a great company the CEO Glen Calvin is a very smart person and people that this company are brilliant and as much as I'd love to hate the company because I'm a real estate broker I invest in it this is a 10 year no sell for me number 5 peloton okay all right this one's a little mixed on this one okay peloton is a home exercise treadmill and bike manufacturer they actually stopped manufacturing their treadmill even though that's what I wanted during the pandemic because they're worried that they can't socially distance install the treadmills because they're too heavy I don't know that's mind blowing to me they're only selling the bike that's the bottom line right now they basically have this popular app the peloton app that you could use to train with fitness pros virtually and you could work out with them in groups and do voice chants and there's that or whatever one of the things I hate about the company is the fact that their app is so close source it's not like you know it's kind of like the Apple iPhone when it first came out you couldn't put any different apps on it I can't watch netflix on my peloton bike because they they lock you into their system and that drives me nuts that really grinds my gears now they have released the peloton app for other devices like Roku and the Apple App Store so you could put the app on your iPad and not have to buy the expensive bike is the bikes like $2,500 now they give you 30 days to return it but if you go on Amazon I could literally take this iPad that I got right here and pop it on to an exercise bike that I could buy off Amazon for like three hundred eighty bucks why am I gonna spend twenty five hundred dollars on a bike I don't know but people are and so I started buying Palatine bike in the high 30s I missed out on the dip when it went down to the nineteen but now it's at about sixty now peloton should smash earnings coming up unless this is already expected and built in which could be and that I'd be wrong but I believe they might smash earnings because the latest earnings reports all rely heavily on peloton selling their bikes and equipment through salespeople in malls which means they have to pay like 50% in commissions to those people well guess what hasn't been happening malls and sales in malls because well we're in a pandemic instead peloton has been it benefited from viral marketing that's really you know it should be showing up in their bottom line here that is they've been able to have sales and attention go to their website because of the pandemic without needing salespeople to drive that business which means they don't have to pay the salespeople to 50% cut which means a lot more money should go to the peloton bottom line that is of course unless peloton either becomes a fad and people start canceling their orders or if Hallett on has supply chain issues it already takes like six weeks to get a peloton bike which is crazy peloton is blowing nordic out of the way and then some of the other competitors peloton is standing out above the entire crowd sure Lululemon is trying to get into the game now with their acquisition of the mirror for I think five hundred million dollars but there's a lot to be desired when you compete against peloton so keep an eye on peloton now number six and number seven I'm gonna keep these short because number six and seven come on we've all we know these companies okay we don't need an explanation on these companies Amazon this is another tenure no cell for me I have a $3,200 price target on them Amazon is my second largest holding and well like I said Amazon needs no introduction the same actually goes for Apple Apple I see as a stable safer bet they've got the brand value they've got the stability and they've got the cold hard cash which allows them to innovate when they want although you kind of wonder like where's the innovation we'll see now they're trying to replace Intel and do their own vertical integration maybe that'll increase cash flows I don't know this Mac right here has been a lemon and that was not a cheap Mac but anyway let's now touch on the Simon Property Group at Dave and Buster's and Cheesecake Factory here's the thing I've been waiting desperately to hear that Dave and Buster's and the Cheesecake Factory have had access to the Main Street Landing program as soon as I hear these companies apply for the Main Street lending program I'll probably invest more money into Dave & Buster's and cheesecake because I believe Cheesecake Factory can double and I believe Dave & Buster's can triple the problem is Main Street loans don't let you refinance high interest rate debt you also have to repay that money from the Federal Reserve it's the Federal Reserve's stimulus money for big companies within five years which is kind of a short fuse to pay back all of that debt coming out of a pandemic and trying to get people back into the habit of going to restaurants and going to Dave & Buster's so even though the loan might be a lifeline some of these companies might honestly just be smarter to file bankruptcy screw the shareholders and start over now do I really think cheesecake and Dave & Buster's are going to go bankrupt probably not but look at this okay as of quarter one this isn't even the latest earnings report this is as of the end of March quarter 1 2020 the Cheesecake Factory had 507 million in current debts due within the next year's now granted half of that was for gift cards and leases and the Cheesecake Factory stopped paying their lease agreements and I'm assuming a lot of people probably aren't using their gift cards so maybe that's not so bad but they've only got 270 million in current assets as of the end of March now on top of that they consider most of their assets to be long-term leases but the problem is they just defaulted on most of their long-term leases so how bad this is going to look in q2 it remains to be seen now Dave and Buster's has almost 900 million in actual assets not just leases they have another about billion in actual leases Dave & Buster's this 900 million of assets probably has to do with their gaming machines because well they have a whole gaming section as part of their restaurant right but both Cheesecake and Dave & Buster's do have that potential to double even potentially triple and problem is these are hot potatoes we don't know there's speculative bets and when I say they're speculative bets they should only be you should only put a speculative amount of money into them if you actually believe in the companies both the Cheesecake Factory Dave & Buster's are great companies I personally prefer dave & buster's I think it has a higher potential to pop even higher than the Cheesecake Factory and I think it's a better company than the Cheesecake Factory but my opinion on the company isn't gonna change the fact that if bars and restaurants continue to get shut down and closed both of these companies might end up filing bankruptcy now I guess the real question is do I believe we're in a stock market bubble is this the beginning of the end and in my opinion the answer is in the medium term no I don't believe in the medium term which I when I say that I mean like two to three years that word about them as long as interest rates stay this low and bond yields remain as low as they are interest rates right and taking into account the trillions of dollars in stimulus that has been injected into the market yeah we've escaped fundamentals but what we're seeing today is expected it's an expected flight to safety is it sustainable no it's only as sustainable as well more stimulus comes into the market which right now it's quite possible that the market is pricing in some expectation of future stimulus which we could see a dramatic pull back if that stimulus does not come or interest rates go up now my expectation is we're not gonna see a dramatic pullback and there will always be red days don't get me wrong and those are good days to go shopping on instead of these crazy euphoric green days but come 2023 or whenever rates start ticking up that's when we're going to start in my opinion seeing some of these deflating at least me here in 2020 looking forward three years obviously more information will help us guide our decisions but for the meantime I would rather be in the market than not in the market and that's what I've said for years just like I said forever now make sure that your life insurance in the link below and your two free stocks with the stock trading app weevil deposit just $100 and get two free stocks there you go if you liked this video consider sharing this because sharing is caring folks I look forward to seeing you in the next video let me know your thoughts in the comments down below I look forward to hearing them and folks we will see you soon
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