저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
Grantham은 시장이 지금 거품 붕괴 후의 '고기 분쇄기' 국면에 있으며 바닥은 내년 말쯤 나올 것으로 본다. 1월 효과 관련: 1월에는 소형주·가치주, 그리고 전년 폭락한 종목이 강세를 보이는 경향이 있다는 점을 설명했다. 2000년 닷컴 버블과 비교: 당시 나스닥은 연말까지 40% 하락했고 성장주 다수는 50~60% 떨어졌다. 2001년 1월에는 전년 폭락주가 반등했다. 대형 약세장은 2~3년 걸리는 경우가 많고, 이번에도 긴 하락이 될 것이라고 본다. 약세장의 반등: 1929년 이후 약 45% 반등 뒤 80% 이상 추가 하락한 사례처럼, 대형 약세장에는 큰 랠리가 끼어 있을 수 있다. 3년 연속 손실 가능성: 올해는 그만큼 크게 떨어지지 않을 여지가 있으며, 4월까지는 상승할 가능성도 크다고 봤다. 연준 평가: 볼커 이후 정책이 자산 거품을 키웠고, 연준은 거품 붕괴를 막지 못했다고 비판했다. 주택 거품도 3시그마급 사건이었다고 설명했다. 경기: 거품 뒤에는 보통 평범하거나 심한 경기침체가 온다. 연착륙은 기대하기 어렵다는 입장이다. 장기 리스크: 기후변화, 탈세계화, 냉전 재부상, 천연자원·노동 부족을 주목하고 있다.
다듬은 글
Market bottom could be late next year warns GMO co-founder but Great Bear markets can contain wonderful rallies he adds Federal Reserve policy has been a horror show ever since former chair Paul volcker stepped down in 1987 resulting in a series of Bubbles and crashes according to Jeremy Grantham the co-founder of investment firm GMO that's why the stock market is now on what 84 year old Grantham calls a meat grinder phase arising after a Super Bubble fueled by extraordinarily low interest rates in the decade following the global financial crisis he doesn't expect the market to find a bottom until late next year and advises against expecting a soft Landing for the economy none of the great psychological bubbles have ever had anything other than an ordinary recession or a Savage recession Grantham joined the what goes up Podcast to discuss the current state of play in markets as well as some of the long-term risks he's been studying like climate change deglobalization the return of the Cold War and shortages in natural resources and labor here are some highlights of the conversation which have been condensed and edited for clarity click here to listen to the full podcast on the terminal or subscribe Below on Apple podcasts Spotify or wherever you listen you warned about a stock market plunged this year lay out what you're seeing hey I personally am a great respecter of January as an unusual month and what January does is it tends to be pretty kind to small cap and value indeed more than 100 of all the so-called small cap effect has occurred in January for the last 100 years so it's huge for small cap and value but also has this rather more complicated thing and that is it does very well for stocks that got utterly hammered the year before that's pretty obvious what happens is you lose 40 percent fifty percent sixty percent seventy percent or so you take your losses to reap the tax loss effect and then you have the money in your hand and you have a year-end bonus Christmas bonus and so on and you look out into the new year you can see them as bargains they're done a lot in this case the growth stocks and so you buy them so I was kind of fearful of that we look back at what happened in 2000 there are only a handful of great bubbles that look like this one and the one that looks most like it is the Great Tech bubble of 2000.
and during 2000 the Blue Chips continued to go up the dot-coms and then they shot the junior growth stocks and then the medium growth stocks and finally the great ciscos of that era and by the end of the year the NASDAQ was down 40 percent and a lot of the growth stocks were probably down about an average of 50 or 60 percent it was a bloodbath and that pretty much sums up what happened to highly speculative stocks last year don't you think and so what happened in 2001 January 2001 was up 12 led by the specs that had been wiped out the previous year this seems so boring as to hardly be worth commenting on but that is exactly what happened this year and one of the proofs is if you take the order of horror last year and flip it that is precisely the order of heroics this year question will that parallel to the.com Bubble go from Peak to trough a the bottom was in late 2002.
mostly the great bubbles when they break they take a long time they typically take a couple of years three years and every now and then they get rid of it in a real hurry but my guess was this was going to be a long one the buy-in to the idea that stocks only go up and the amount of speculative craziness that was set in trained by the covet supplemental payments meant that individual participation was actually off the scale bigger than 2000 bigger than the.com and so this looked like it would have a whole lot of buy the dip from day one and it's had a lot of by the dip but 2000 had some wonderful rallies even in 1929 it rallied almost 45 percent off the lows of 29 until April of 1930.
a hell of a rally must have made people feel that the worst was over and then it rolled over and went down well over 80 percent on the SNP and most of the speculative index went down 95 percent give or take anyway let's hope we don't go there but it just gives you an idea Great Bear markets can have wonderful rallies Great Bear markets can take their time and we have a very very recent one where quite a few players in today's market experience 2000 and it went on for three painful years and the housing bust was a quick one but not that quick it took over a year of pretty steady declines so my guess is this one will not bottom until deep into next year question so three straight years of losses do you think question so three straight years of losses do you think a I do think there is a Fighting Chance this year will not be down that much and a very good chance that through April it might easily be up question to bring us to the present pulse surprised markets with his hawkishness talk to us about what Powell is doing is he being aggressive enough not aggressive enough and will it work a they have hardly gotten anything right since Alan Greenspan first arrived Paul volcker knew what he was doing but since then it's been a long continuous Horror Show they've engaged in policies that drive up the prices of assets other things being even and created spectacular overpriced bubbles they then break because that's what bubbles have to do they simply break up their own extreme overpricing and we pay a very tough price and then the FED races to the rescue oh dear the wreckage of two thousand they came in and they prevented the SNP from going down more than 50 percent which it would have done with moral hazard lots of aggressive language and reduction in rates they managed to curtail that at 50 percent they couldn't stop a recession they didn't stop the NASDAQ going down 82 percent they threw the kitchen sink at it and then what happened to burn Inc he's facing a housing bubble he says oh U.S housing has never declined it never had it has never had a bubble before it was famously Diversified between California going up and Florida going down Etc or vice versa and then he said the U.S housing market nearly reflects a strong U.S economy the U.S housing market has a long historical record you could measure it it was a three sigma event which is the kind of event in a normal series that would occur every 100 years and all his staff could see that no one apparently plucked up the courage to tell him the housing market it went up and then it came down in a beautiful round trip symmetrical perfect the best one I ever saw so three years up three years down they sucked in extra people to owning houses three percent or four percent of the public it went from a normal 62 to 65 or 66 percent for the first time in history and then painfully for the marginal buyers that went all the way back to 61 62 percent the housing market went all the way back to Trent and naturally over corrected which is typical for two or three years that's a lot of pain it was all their fault and why would we believe that they know what they're doing thanks for tuning in to Long Branch news today we hope you found the latest business news and Trends informative and insightful if you enjoyed this video don't forget to hit the like button and share it with your friends and colleagues and if you haven't already make sure to hit that subscribe button and turn on notifications so you never miss a future update from us we appreciate your support and look forward to bringing you more high quality business news content in the days and weeks ahead until next time stay informed and stay ahead
Comments 0