저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 연준은 인플레이션과 경제 붕괴 사이에서 결국 인플레이션을 택할 것이며, 이는 하이퍼인플레이션과 귀금속 상승으로 이어진다는 주장. 연준의 딜레마: 인플레이션을 잡으려면 기준금리를 물가상승률 이상(예: 7% 이상)으로 올려야 하지만 현재 금리는 약 4%에 불과하다고 주장. 재정 긴축 필요성: 인플레이션을 잡으려면 정부가 사회보장·메디케어·오바마케어·국방 등 실질 지출을 삭감하고 흑자 예산을 편성해야 하나 이는 실행되지 않고 있다고 지적. 선택의 문제: 정부는 금융위기·디플레이션(지출 삭감, 파산)과 인플레이션 중 하나를 택해야 하며, 결국 인플레이션을 선택할 것으로 전망. 인플레이션은 세금처럼 작동하여 TARP·PPP 등의 재원을 조달해왔다고 설명. 결과: 인플레이션을 택하더라도 결국 하이퍼인플레이션과 붕괴로 모두가 피해를 입는다는 주장. 연준은 책임을 OPEC·푸틴·기업·투기꾼 등에 전가할 것이라고 함. 과거 경험: 서브프라임 시기 공매도 경험을 언급하며 위기 신호를 알아볼 수 있었다고 주장. 2008년 위기를 예측했으나 폴 크루그먼 등 주류 경제학자들에게 조롱받았다고 회고. 출연자 전망: 제목상 연준이 이번 주 귀금속을 폭락시키고 초기 매수자가 큰 돈을 벌 것이라는 취지이나, 본문 자막에서는 귀금속 가격에 대한 구체적 수치나 목표가는 언급되지 않음. 리스크·조건: 인플레이션 대응 실패 시 경제 붕괴, 정부 선택에 따라 디플레이션 또는 하이퍼인플레이션 중 하나가 불가피하다는 전제.
다듬은 글
they still haven't really figured it out they still haven't figured out the Rock and the hard place that the FED in the country are between because the FED is going to have to Pivot but inflation is going to run out of control see they've got to make a choice do they want inflation or do they want economic implosion now ultimately if they choose inflation we're going to have an implosion anyway because we're going to have hyperinflation it just may happen a year later and well that's good enough for the politicians all they care about is that it doesn't happen now because to fight inflation and there's only one way they're going to fight inflation successfully which is why they can't do it they've got to raise interest rates above the rate of inflation and inflation is what eight percent even if it's six percent they got to get short-term interest rates up to seven percent they're they're barely at four percent they got a long way to go and they've got to have massive cuts to government spending they're not even considering that because right now the way the government pays for spending is with inflation inflation is the stealth tax by which the government pays for everything in fact going all the way back to the tarp bailouts Obamacare the PPP how did we get all this government we didn't get it for free we paid for it with inflation they created money to pay for all this stuff now if the government wants to get rid of inflation they have to get rid of that money and so they have to run budget surpluses the Federal Reserve has to be able to withdraw all the liquidity that it's supplied so we have to have big cuts to government spending right now the government's got to cut Social Security Medicare Obamacare National Defense we have to shrink the amount of money the government is spending the government has to spend less money next year than it's spent last year in real real terms actual Cuts not reductions in the rate of injury increases but actual Cuts that's not happening so the government's got to choose do we want to have a financial crisis and cut government spending and allow bankruptcies and defaults and all these losses or do we want to have inflation and that's what they're going to pick sure if they thought they can get rid of inflation without a problem yes the public doesn't like inflation so the politicians wanted to talk tough about inflation but what they're going to like even less that inflation is when they lose everything they've got when they have a complete economic implosion when their savings and investment accounts get wiped out and they lose their jobs they're not going to like that now of course that's going to happen eventually anyway there's no free lunch here if the government chooses inflation then inflation is going to wipe everybody out so everybody's going to get wiped out through deep deflation when this whole thing collapses and a crisis or they're going to get wiped out through inflation but the reason the FED is going to pick inflation is because that happens later and of course as we've seen they can come up with a scapegoat to blame inflation on somebody else they never accept responsibility for the inflation they create so if the FED keeps hiking rates and everything implodes well hey we did that to ourselves you can blame the fled blame the FED but if prices just run out of control well we could blame OPEC after all they just cut production for oil we could blame Putin we can blame greedy corporations we can blame capitalism speculators I mean maybe they'll even try to blame me who knows but they're never going to accept any responsibility for what they did but what I started talking about when we saw this Lehman type moment and remember you know I'm familiar with these leaving moments because I remember when I was short the subprime market and the things that finally happened to get me to realize that okay we're about to get paid because I knew what to look out for because I was looking for these signs the idea that nobody rings a bell it's not true they rang the bell they Big Ben went off not people didn't hear it people still don't understand the disaster that the Federal Reserve has created with this policy you know I was very much against QE from the beginning and people are about to find out why the Paul krugmans of the world and all the people on mainstream investment firms who were blindsided by the 2008 financial crisis who laughed at me on National Television when I was warning about that crisis these are the same people who are oblivious again because they think the FED solved the problem they didn't understand I understood the problem that's why I knew the crisis was coming and I also knew that the FED made the problem they created worse I just didn't know how long it would take
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