저자: Thomas · 외국인
요약 보기
Ray Dalio의 올웨더 포트폴리오를 소개하고 평가한 패시브 투자 영상이다. 포트폴리오 구성: 주식 30%(S&P500 18%, 미국 소형주 3%, 선진국 6%, 신흥국 3%), 미국 중기채 15%, 미국 장기채 40%, 금 7.5%, 원자재 7.5%. 진행자는 이 포트폴리오가 미국 편중이 너무 크다고 평가하며, 신흥국 비중을 더 높이고 지리적으로 더 넓게 분산할 것을 권한다. 미국 국채 비중 55%에 대해서는 달러 표시 자산이라 독일·스위스 등 유로·프랑 기반 투자자에게는 안전자산으로서 의미가 작다고 지적하며, 자국 국채나 예금을 대안으로 제시한다. 금과 원자재 투자는 복잡해서 권하지 않는다고 밝히며, 대신 부동산(리츠 등 규제 부동산회사)을 소량 편입하는 것이 의미 있다고 본다. 영상 말미에 시청자 의견과 다음 영상 주제를 요청하며 마무리한다.
다듬은 글
In today's video, we're once again looking at a passive securities portfolio. We'll be examining Radio's All Weather Portfolio and how it's structured. At the end, we'll also give a brief assessment of what we think of this portfolio. Enjoy the video! Hey, my name is Thomas from Finanzfluss, and in today's video, we'll be discussing passive investing again.
In our short video course, "Building a Passive Portfolio in Five Steps," which you can find above or linked below in the video description, we've already introduced you to Gerd Kommer's World Portfolio. There, we also announced that we would be presenting Radio's All Weather Portfolio. The Ray Joel Weather Portfolio became particularly well-known in Germany through Tony Robbins' book "Money," which we've also already featured in a separate video.
But who exactly is Radio, and why has this portfolio become so famous? Radio is one of the world's most famous hedge fund managers. He's the founder of one of the largest hedge funds, Bridgewater Associates, with a total fund volume of 160 million in 2018. The billion-euro medalist himself has been active on the stock market for several decades and, according to the Forbes list, is one of the richest people in the world with an estimated net worth of 17 billion dollars.
The portfolio he calls the "All-Weather Portfolio" was designed to compensate for potential fluctuations and withstand all financial weather conditions. Let's take a closer look at this portfolio and how it is structured. The portfolio consists of 30 percent equities. In this category, he suggests investing approximately 18 percent in the SP500, or rather in an ETF that represents this index.
The SP500 represents the 500 largest American companies listed on the stock market. Furthermore, he suggests investing 3 percent in American small-cap stocks, meaning companies with a smaller market capitalization, and 6 percent in developed countries, meaning six percent in developed countries outside the USA.
Another 3 percent should be invested in energy markets, meaning developing countries. Here, one could For example, one could use the help of an ETF tracking the MSCI Emerging Markets. The next two elements of the portfolio consist largely of US Treasury bonds: 15 percent in medium- term Treasury bonds, meaning those with a maturity of seven to ten years, and 40 percent in long-term US Treasury bonds, meaning those with a maturity of 20 to 25 years.
While one can invest directly in these bonds, there are also options to use ETFs. This high percentage of Treasury bonds is primarily intended to reduce volatility, meaning the fluctuation range of the portfolio. The next two elements in the portfolio are intended to be particularly useful when inflation rises.
Reding suggests investing 7.5 percent in gold and another 7.5 percent in a broad commodities portfolio in his weather portfolio. Regarding gold, he suggests a healthy mix of physical gold (real gold coins) and gold-backed securities ( investments in gold). This can be replicated via commodity ETFs that themselves track commodity indices, such as the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index.
What do you think of this portfolio? Can you find friends with this portfolio? Here are a few words about my personal opinion on this portfolio. First of all, and here I'm already alone in this opinion, this portfolio is simply far too US-heavy for me. This is mainly due to the fact— and you can't really blame the Americans for this— that they have a strong national consciousness, especially regarding their capital markets, since the USA is one of the most active and largest economies in the world, and also has one of the most active capital markets.
Nevertheless, I personally prefer a significantly broader diversification, also on a geographical, i.e., global, basis. My investment share in the "magic markets," i.e., in developing countries, is significantly higher than three percent of the total portfolio. What I also like is that 55 percent of the capital is invested in US Treasury bonds.
This portfolio simply doesn't allow for fine-tuning between the risk-free and the Assuming that the large portion of government bonds should be considered risk-free, it makes little sense for a German, Swiss, or Austrian to invest in American government bonds and view them as a safe investment, because they are denominated in dollars, and our home currencies are the euro and the Swiss franc.
Therefore, it makes more sense for a German or Austrian to invest in German or Austrian government bonds, as these have a very good credit rating, even better than American bonds. A Swiss citizen should invest in Swiss government bonds. An alternative to investing in government bonds, as we've discussed in many videos, is to simply put the money intended for the risk-free portion into a domestic savings account, where you have a high level of protection.
I also find the allocation of stocks rather suboptimal; we've already discussed this – it's very US-heavy. We've already addressed the topic of gold and commodities; we even made a special video about gold. Basically, I don't think it's a good idea. It's wrong to include commodities in your asset allocation.
I personally don't do it at the moment because it's simply too complex an asset class that I haven't dealt with enough and do n't want to at the moment. Finally, two weather portals. Another point that I find missing in this portfolio is real estate. I find it quite interesting to invest a small part of one's portfolio in real estate, preferably in Witzwil Estate Investment Trust, i.e., regulated real estate companies.
What is your opinion on this topic? Have you already seen this portfolio and found it useful? Feel free to write it in the comments below. Also, let us know in the comments if there are other portfolios you'd like to see that we'd like to present in a special video. I hope you liked this video. If so, please give us a thumbs up.
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