저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 짐 로저스는 향후 경제위기가 평생 겪은 것 중 최악일 것이며 정부 실패와 국가 부도도 나타날 수 있다고 경고한다. 위기 전망: 역사적으로 큰 경제위기마다 정부가 실패했고, 미국은 4~8년마다 경제 문제를 겪어왔다. 부채가 과거보다 훨씬 커서 다음 위기가 더 심각하다고 본다. 2008년 이후 전 세계 부채가 급증했고, 연준 대차대조표만 9년간 600% 넘게 늘었다. 투자 대응: 각자 아는 분야에만 투자하라고 강조한다. 본인은 농업과 귀금속에 투자 중이다. 위기 초기에는 안전자산인 미국 달러를 보유 중이며, 금은 당장 사지 않고 하락 후 크게 오를 때 매수할 계획이라고 밝힌다. 금 전망: 2008년처럼 위기 초기에는 금·은이 하락한 뒤 크게 오를 것으로 예상한다. 통화 신뢰가 무너지면 사람들은 금·은으로 이동한다고 본다. 자유와 정부 통제: 위기 때 정부는 안보를 명분으로 자유를 빼앗는다고 주장한다. 1930년대 미국의 금 소유 금지를 예로 들며, 향후 금 거래 금지나 외환 통제도 나올 수 있다고 본다. 해외 자산과 귀금속을 보험으로 보유하라고 권한다. 중국·아시아: 19세기 영국, 20세기 미국에 이어 21세기는 중국·아시아의 시대가 될 것으로 본다. 중국도 부채가 늘고 있어 부도가 나올 수 있다고 언급하며, 본인은 중국에 투자하고 있다. 전 세계 전망: 미국, 일본, 유럽, 아시아 등 전 세계가 문제를 겪고 중국도 예외가 아니라고 본다. 부도가 곳곳에서 발생할 것이라고 경고한다. 출연자 조언: 사람들이 위기를 알게 되면 걱정하고 준비하게 될 것이라며, 향후 수년 내 위기가 올 것으로 본다.
다듬은 글
the Western civilization is headed for a collapse and that governments will fail so did you want to start off by discussing what you mean by this and what do you think the American government failing would really look like well let's go one step at a time what I said was the next economic problem is going to be worth the worst in our lifetime we have had economic problems in the US every four to eight years since the beginning of the Republic so saying we're going to have another one it's not such a dramatic statement in fact it would be very bizarre if we did not have an economic collapse soon and I said the next one will be worse than anything in our lifetime because the debt is so much higher Alijah and in 2008 we had a big problem because of too much debt well the debt worldwide since then has gone through the roof at the Federal Reserve alone in the United States our debt is up over the balance sheet is up over 600 percent in nine years so you can see what kind of problems the world is facing I said that there would be governments failing yes and nearly always are historically when there are big economic problems I cannot think of any economic setbacks large economic setback where governments haven't failed and countries will fail you may remember Iceland failed last time I mean they all came out of it but several Middle East sorry Middle Eastern and Central European countries failed they've had revivals and say the United States was going to fail but certainly we're going to have many problems worldwide and who knows maybe United States government will fail so it's gonna be a bad one so who knows right and as for investors I mean one of the things you're talking about is that this would probably be the worst economic collapse in our lifetime because the debt is so large so what is your perspective on how investors can prepare for such a collapse well everybody should only do what they know about themselves they should listen to me or somebody they listen to on the on the internet or on eBay or something they should only pay attention to what they know if you start investing in things that you don't know but I sure you and I have real problems when the when the situation goes bad so stay with what you know is the first answer some of the things I'm doing I'm investing in agriculture I've got some precious metals I'm not buying them now because I expect more problems in precious metals first I own a lot of US Dollars because people when their problems they look for a safe haven and the US dollars still considered a safe haven by many people so but but stay with what you know just because I'm investing in agriculture does not mean you should if you don't know what a farm is if you don't like being out in the Sun don't think about investing in agriculture now what is your perspective on commodities especially it seems like when a crash happens a lot of people go towards safe haven assets such as gold and silver do you see that being the case this time around well I try to go to US dollars because the US dollar is considered a safe haven I own go but I expect going to go down during this crisis first which point I hope I'm smart enough to buy a lot of gold before this is over gold is going to go much much much higher Alijah and people lose confidence in paper money and lose confidence in government historically they put money into gold and silver so yes but I'm not buying it but I'm not buying at the moment high duan US dollars at the moment right I mean with the crash of 2008 that's kind of what we saw to begin with gold and silver went down and initially and then they went much higher so that's kind of what you're seeing this time around as well that's what I expect yes but if it doesn't happen that way a lot Giles when you're going to do it don't worry all right now one of the other things I'd like to discuss today is it seems like when a crisis occurs it seems like the government steps in and wants to save everyone you know and we end up sacrificing a lot of our Liberty for security so how in this crisis do you think the government's will try to take people's Liberty away and how can we try to prevent that you're right they always have they always say we're going to save you and part of saving you is you have to give up something you know if you remember but Benjamin Franklin said back in during the American Revolution that people who give up a Liberty for more security usually wound up with less Liberty and less security and that will certainly happen it happens with us as well you know back in the 2008-2009 problem they passed all sorts of ridiculous laws to quote help us most of them made us worse off rather than better and they will do it again I mean eventually well let's go back in the 1930s as you know the outlook the ownership of gold in the United States to just hate us to protect us they said unfortunate people believed it at the time are accepted at the time next time around if not in the immediate of future they will probably try to do something like outlaw the use of gold when you buy and sell they won't take it away from you this time I don't think but they might try to outlaw it they might say that we cannot use gold and silver through transactions because they will want to make their own money monopoly to protect themselves they say to protect us but it really should protect themselves so no it's going to be worse don't worry it'll be worse we may even have exchange controls in the United States the next time the dollar starts going down dramatically I'm sure they'll reimpose exchange controls in the US all for our own good Elijah it's not for their good it's for our good don't worry you can believe them right exactly and what are some ways that we can maybe speak out against our Liberty being taken away well everybody should certainly have some money out of their own country as an insurance policy if nothing else everybody listening to this probably has fire insurance or car insurance do you hope you never use your car insurance but you should have some money out of your own country as a as an insurance policy if nothing else I would suggest everybody on some precious metals as an insurance policy they well may well outlaw the use as I said but that does not mean they won't black markets or other ways you can perhaps using gold and silver throughout history people he referred to gold and silver when things go along and they will again governments always try to do what they can to restrict people but people somehow always come out on top in the end no as for investing in other countries I know you've talked a lot about how you see that Asia will be the next superpower going forward and you yourself have moved to Asia and also you've had your daughter's learn Mandarin can you tell us a little bit about how you came to the realization that China would be the big power in the 21st century well partly just by reading history and partly by visiting China of the 19th century was the century of the UK the 20th century was the century of the u.s.
in my view the 21st century is going to be the century of time and there's not the party for you know they save and invest over 35% of their income they work from dawn to dusk many things going right in China there will certainly be setbacks in China as America rose to power and glory we had 15 depressions along the way with Adi we had horrible Civil War we had very few human rights we had massacres industries we had many problems but we became the most successful country in the 20th century a China certainly will have problems I don't know what or when but everybody does you know China China is the only country in history that's had recurring periods of greatness Great Britain was great once Egypt was great once Rome was great once China's been great three or four times they've absolutely they've had absolute catastrophe and disaster three or four times too but for some reason every time they do after a few decades of centuries they have turned around and risen again they seem to be doing that again do you believe that people should start investing then more in Asia and China rather than the United States I want to repeat people do not invest in anything and that they don't understand if you can't find shine on a map please do not think about investing in China I she did China's on the rise even though I do expect bear markets and bankruptcies went up you know problems in China going forward but I do have investments in China but please only invest in what you yourself no I don't think maybe people will dispute it but no and America was certainly the most significant country in the 20th century but now we're the largest debtor nation in the world that's a pretty simple fact not a good fact I don't like saying but America is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world and the debts are going higher and higher throughout history illogic countries have gotten themselves into this kind of situation I've had problems I've had crises and and semi crises they maybe maybe it's different this time maybe it's not going to happen in the US I certainly hope not but I've read enough history you know how the world works has always worked definitely and you were talking a bit before about how people will work rushed into u.s.
dollars as a safe-haven at first and then rush into precious metals as they lose confidence in the government in the American government in the US dollar now what is your perspective do you see this being a worldwide crisis and wouldn't Asia and China also be hit as well with the coming crash or what is your perspective no allowed United States which is the largest economy in the world has a problem everybody has a problem I assure you Japan in Europe Asia the whole world including China you will see bankruptcies in China this time around China even China has a lot of debt in 2017 2018 which they did not have before for many historic reasons I mean nobody would mend money to Mao Zedong so you know Chinese haven't had much debt for the past few decades but now even China has yet she's gonna see bankruptcies there you're gonna see bankruptcies everywhere it's not gonna be fun all right well Jim Rogers thank you so much for joining us today before we let you go did you want to share with the viewers any last thoughts you had just be careful everybody should be careful because this is going to be a doozy sometime in the next couple of years we were yet just I would suggested everybody become informed once they become knowledgeable they will probably get worried and once they get worried they will probably be prepared I hope so people are interested in reading one of your books or finding online where can they go well my most recent book was called street smarts adventures on the road and in the markets that certainly explains a lot of what's happening in the world on my my website is Jim Rogers calm and wwg are juicy vices first which point I hope I'm smart enough to buy a lot of gold before this is over gold is going to go much much much higher Alijah some people lose confidence in paper money and lose confidence in government historically they put money into gold and silver so yes but I'm not my own it but I'm not buying at the moment hi you own US dollars at the moment right I mean with the crash of 2008 that's kind of what we saw to begin with gold and silver went down initially and then they went much higher so that's kind of what you're seeing this time around as well that's what I expect yes but if it doesn't happen that way a lot giant plenty of gold is over don't worry all right now one of the other things I'd like to discuss today is it seems like when a crisis occurs it seems like the government steps in and wants to save everyone you know and we end up sacrificing a lot of our Liberty for security so how in this crisis do you think the government's will try to take people's Liberty away and how can we try to prevent that you're gonna have real problems when the when the situation goes bad so stay with what you know is the first answer some of the things I'm doing I'm investing in agriculture I've got some precious metals I'm not buying them now because I expect more problems in precious metals first I own a lot of US dollars because people when their problems they look for a safe haven and the US dollars still considered a safe haven by many people so but but stay with what you know just because I'm investing in agriculture does not mean you should you don't know what a farm is if you don't like being out in the Sun don't think about investing in agriculture now what is your perspective on commodities especially it seems like when a crash happens a lot of people go towards safe haven assets such as gold and silver do you see that being the case this time around well I said people try to go to US dollars because the US dollar was considered a safe haven I own go but I expect goal to go down during this cut right they always have they always say we're going to save you a part of saving you is you have to give up something I didn't know if you remember but Benjamin Franklin said back in during the American Revolution that people who give up Liberty for more security usually wind up with less Liberty and less security and that will certainly haven't had you happy it happens with us as well you know back in the 2008-2009 problem they passed all sorts of ridiculous laws to quote help us most of them made us worse off rather than better and they will do it again I mean eventually well let's go back in the 1930s as you know the outlawed the ownership of gold in the United States to just have us to protect us they said unfortunate people believed it at the time are accepted at the town next time around if not the immediate our future they will probably try to do something like outlaw the use of gold when you buy and sell they won't take it away from you this time I don't think but they might try to outlaw it they might say that we cannot use gold and silver through transaction yes and nearly always are historically when there are big economic problems I cannot think of any economic setbacks large economic setback where governments haven't failed and countries will fail you may remember Iceland failed last time I mean they all came out of it but several Middle East sorry Middle Eastern and Central European countries failed they've had revivals and say the United States was going to fail but certainly we're going to have many problems worldwide and no maybe United States government will say he'll sue it's gonna be a bad one so who knows right and as for investors I mean one of the things you're talking about is that this would probably be the worst economic collapse in our lifetime because the debt is so large so what is your perspective on how investors can prepare for such a collapse well everybody should only do what they know about themselves they shouldn't listen to me or somebody they listen to on the on the internet or on TV or something they should only pay attention to what they know if you start investing in things that you don't know but I'm sure Western civilization is headed for a collapse and that governments will fail so did you want to start off by discussing what you mean by this and what do you think the American government failing would really look like well let's go one step at a time what I said was the next economic problem is going to be work the worst in our lifetime we have had economic problems in the US every four to eight years since the beginning of the Republic so saying we're going to have another one it's not such a dramatic statement in fact it would be very bizarre if we did not have an economic collapse soon and I said the next one will be worse than anything in our lifetime because the debt is so much higher Alijah and in 2008 we had a big problem because of too much debt well the debt worldwide since then has gone through the roof at the federal reserve alone in the United States our debt is up over the balance sheet is up over 600 percent in nine years so you can see what kind of problems the world is facing I said that there would be government say
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