저자: JonathanM.Gurney · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아는 펀더멘털상 실적 기대치는 상회했지만 매출은 4분기 연속 감소한 상태이며, 기술적으로는 추세가 양호해 단기 조정 후 추가 상승 여지가 있다고 본다. 펀더멘털: 2019년 11월 실적 발표에서 순이익(178 vs 157)과 매출(30.1억 vs 29.1억 달러) 모두 애널리스트 기대치를 상회했다. 매출은 전년 대비 5% 감소해 4분기 연속 하락했으며, 주력인 게이밍 부문도 6% 감소한 16.6억 달러를 기록했다. 다음 분기 매출 가이던스는 9.5억 달러 수준으로 제시되어 기대치를 밑돌았다. 진행자는 이를 혼조 요인으로 꼽았다. 주가는 연초 대비 50% 이상 상승했으며, 반도체 섹터 전반의 강세도 함께 반영된 흐름이다. 진행자는 펀더멘털 측면에서는 좋은 주식이라고 말하기 어렵다고 평가했지만, 아마존 사례를 들어 재무 구조가 약해도 주가가 오를 수 있다는 점을 언급했다. 기술적 분석: 주가는 50일 이동평균선 위에 있고, 50일선이 200일선 위에 있는 상승 추세 신호가 나타난다. 11월 이후 횡보 구간에서 RSI가 60.52로 과매수권(70) 아래로 내려와 조정 부담이 줄었다고 본다. 10일선 지지를 유지하는 흐름이 좋은 신호이며, S&P500과 반도체 섹터 대비 최근 6개월 상대 강도도 양호하다. 다만 성장주 특성상 변동성이 크고, 2018년 10~12월 약 60% 이상 급락한 사례가 있다. 중국과의 무역 이슈도 리스크다. 단기 조정 시 20일 이동평균선 부근까지 하락할 수 있다고 보았고, 개인적으로는 이 주식을 보유하지 않으며 고객 포트폴리오에도 담지 않았다고 밝혔다. 같은 섹터 내 더 나은 종목이 있다고 판단하며, 조정 시 매수 검토 가능성은 열어두었다.
다듬은 글
hello my name is Jonathan journey portfolio manager at Gurnee financial we're gonna try something a little unique here that we have not done before purpose of this stock of the week segment is to give a fundamental and technical overview of a stock that our clients ask about our goal is to close the gap in communication between clients and the actual person managing their assets we hope the charts and education help clients and viewers alike friendly reminder this video is not to be taken as financial advice should you have questions feel free to reach out to us through email social media comment section we recently released a new website all this material will be on there check it out if you have a chance weekend updates on the stock market in general if you subscribe to our youtube channel will pop up on your phone that might be the easiest way so check that out we're gonna transition now first of all into a fundamental overview of NVIDIA that is the stock of the week and we will transition there now okay so NVIDIA ticker NVDA again fundamental perspective will give you some overview first recently reported earnings on November 11 it's a pretty recent what do they do exactly NVIDIA provides graphic processors for various devices including pcs mobile phones and tablets they are growth companies specifically within the tech sector drilled down a little further they are a semiconductor some of their big competitors are Advanced Micro Devices you might know them as AMD they're ticker symbol and Intel int C third quarter 2020 results they beat on the top and lotta top and bottom lines both quarterly revenue excuse me but quarterly revenue guidance was below expectation so a lot of times as an advisor we say a lot of terms that you may not understand so beating on top and bottom lines beating on top line is beating on revenue and sitting gross sales beat Amon bada beating on bottom line references net income so top line revenue and gross sales bottom line they be expectations on net income keep in mind that these are analyst expectations if we take a deeper dive here by looking at overall revenue the last four quarters that they have reported has been a decline so despite beating on expectations again they beat on earnings expectations 178 versus 157 so a pretty big beat in terms of expectations revenue they beat three point zero one billion versus two point nine 1 billion again these are expectations Nvidia is revenue fell five percent year-over-year the company sold inventory that had previously written off in the quarter but revenue has now declined like we said four straight quarters the video's largest business segment gaming shrunk 6 percent year-over-year at one point six six billion in quarterly revenue which is above the one point five four billion consensus among analyst so in terms of guidance this was the one concerning thing in terms of meeting expectations that they did not meet they guided down to point nine five billion in revenue which still implies a 34% increase down it so they basically mixed the expectation the expectation was three point zero six oh two point nine five billion in revenue versus three point zero six so kind of a mixed picture overall the year the stock is up over 50% understanding that is within the semiconductor sector so that sector has done quite well so from a fundamental standpoint here's what I would say they're beating expectations that is a good thing and it's a good backdrop like I said it for the answer higher overarching market going into an earning season with low expectations is not a bad setup especially when the Fed was cutting rates again that's just kind of common-sense stuff that is what is happening with NVIDIA they had a few issues you're seeing that their financials are not spectacular so from a fun fundamental standpoint I I can't really say that this is a great stock from a fundamental standpoint but you could argue even a stock like Amazon which is exploded since their inception and really hasn't had a great financial balance sheet is doing quite well so the point being is you know they're beating expectations which is a good thing is everything you know great for the stock fundamentally no that's just the reality so let's switch now over to a technical aspect of things and give you our perspective there first of all that the stock is trading above its 50-day moving average which is the blue line again if you don't know anything about charts the red and green shows you daily movement and these are called candles and so overall the last six months has been quite good since basically June has been fantastic for the year again is up over 50% it is a good short-term trend and the fact that the 50-day is above its 200-day so 50-day moving average blue over the red 200 a so that's another indicator that many technical analysts like to see another thing that we like to see is that it is holding the ten day moving average which is this purple line it's basically follow this very closely since October a lot of institutions will gauge buying cell movement based on whether it can hold its ten day moving average sure it's gonna go below that at times so really short term if we're looking at it from November till now this is actually very good consolidation periods in here we had a good rally up sideways movement and look what that does we've been trying to preach that that sideways movement can be for the overall market which is what we saw this week sideways movement is actually bringing the RSI or relative strength index below 70 74 many analysts technical analysts is kind of an overbought level short term doesn't mean it can't stay above 70 but often times struggles to remain there for a long period so it is not overbought it's as an RSI of sixty point five two so in that sense it's actually from a technical standpoint at a good level there's not really too can't too many things concerning about it it is trending and beating the S&P 500 since June this is the comparison between the stock and the SP 500 doing well the last six months also in comparison to its sector so in comparison to semiconductors it's also doing very well the last six months so let's take a little more long-term perspective here and see how it's actually doing over more of a five-year period I'm gonna update that we'll review that so this kind of gives you the full picture you might have said a while in that last picture I thought it was at all-time highs it was it is not so here's kind of a lesson for you as I was saying when the blue line 50-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average that's not a bad thing it tends to trend very well understand this is a growth stock a lot of volatility it is going to have huge fluctuations in fact when I went from 291 to 1 124 the end of December October December 2018 I mean that's a huge move down so again these are growth companies this is gonna happen so expect that but overall a scooter rating is holding above 90 many technical analysts like to see and sometimes only even buy stocks that are momentum wise trading above 90 I don't necessarily play that game truthfully I just it's good to know from a momentum standpoint that it is doing well short-term so short-term this consolidation after a nice move higher is good price action it doesn't mean it can't go lower honestly I do not own this nor do my clients seeing a little bit lower price action maybe - its 20-day moving average would be a good thing and I'll show you that so maybe it retest like it has before the 20-day Goldline 20-day moving average so me if you're gonna get into this is more of a long-term hold it's gonna have crazy fluctuations personally I think from a fundamental standpoint there are better socks in that sector that I like better but let's take a quick look at the sector that it's in since August it is has the sector that it's in has had a 26% move that's it's a quick move over a couple months it is kind of backed off off of oversold levels again 70 oversold backed off so maybe this does get another bid soon and again a scooter it's clearly done well during these dips I mean it's bounced out of there and done quite well understand this it is going to be highly volatile with trade with China but it has done recently because there's been a lot of optimism and trade done quite well so I just wanted to show you that hopefully this helps again a fundamental and technical perspective I do not own it maybe on a pullback I consider it because it does have a lot more upside but at this point I am NOT interested I think we're gonna probably take a little breather in the market but it is actually holding up quite well a follow up to Twitter that we basically was the stock of the week a couple weeks ago it is still trying to build a base the scooter is ugly it has problems but it could be a value play a high risk value play one thing from a technical standpoint where many analysts would say I'm not gonna touch it with a 90-foot pole is that the 50-day crossed the 200-day again I don't necessarily always take that perspective if the market goes higher I think this has a lot of upside but I - I'm just kind of waiting stalling waiting to see what happens but overall price action in the market has been pretty good so I hope this analysis helps listen if you have questions and please give us more stocks that you're interested in so the summary on the video fundamentals not a great picture but they did beat expectations from a technical standpoint is actually holding up quite well has room to run I'm just personally not interested in this stock at this time because I think there's better stocks within this sector hope that helps have a great weekend let us know if you have other stocks you want us to take a look at thanks again
Comments 0