저자: DevelopoMong · 한국인
요약 보기
미국 PCE·근원 PCE가 예상보다 높게 나왔으나 시장은 '미라클 선반 패턴'으로 급등했다고 해석. 국채금리·달러는 높은 수준. 나스닥이 2개월 박스권 하단 저항선 돌파를 시도 중이며 진짜 반등인지 조정 재개인지가 관건. S&P500은 2021년 말 고점을 아직 하회하지 않아 추가 조정 가능성 언급. 5월 약세 가능성이 있으나 'sell in May'는 최근 10년 중 대부분 맞지 않았다고 주장. 테슬라 반등과 반도체 2배 ETF 상승을 언급하며 인텔 개별 투자 대신 반도체 ETF를 권장. 현금 비중 10~30% 유지와 하락 시 매수 전략 강조.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Develop. My US direct account has risen to a 66% return and a profit of 117 million won. You can see that it has climbed back up to a 240% return thanks to this week's surge in USDN and Nvidia, which had previously dropped below the 200% mark. My domestic market is also showing a 60% return and a profit of 7 million won.
Ad 11 million won from Bitcoin, I am currently in a total profit of approximately 170 million won. Now, looking at the US stock market on Friday, PCE came in higher than expected, but a situation unfolded where the market surged significantly, accompanied by the term "miracle shelf pattern." In particular, looking at the chart, it seems as though to demonstrate that US stocks have solid earnings regardless of how high inflation is or how delayed interest rate cuts are.
Google, which announced strong earnings, surged 10%, Nvidia, which is expected to perform well based on various earnings reports, rose 6%, and Amazon also rose 3%. We can see that Big Tech, tech stocks, and semiconductors showed significant gains. In other words, if earnings support it, we can see them weathering the current situation well and rising.
Now, the most important event on Friday was the announcement of PC price data. Looking at the year-over-year figures, headline PC was up 2.5% last month and was expected to be 2.6% this month, but the announcement was 2.7%, consistent with expectations. However, looking at core PC prices, which the Fed is watching most closely, it was up 2.8% last month and was expected to fall to 2.6% this month; however, it exceeded these expectations and was announced at 2.8%, identical to last month.
In other words, it was an announcement that raised concerns about entrenchment and a rebound rather than a divergence. The only saving grace is that the month-over-month figures met expectations. And if we check this on the graph, does it seem to be following the CPI exactly? Both headline and core PC prices are showing signs of entrenchment and movements toward a rebound.
This means we can clearly confirm that the slowdown has stopped for now. However, beyond the data... I have been saying that the most important thing is always the market's interpretation. The market had already anticipated the PCE results based on various indicators; in other words, they brought up the term "miracle shelf pattern" and simply pushed US stocks into a sharp rise.
If so, what kind of trend did the Treasury yields, which I am watching closely, show? Was it already priced in? We can see Treasury yields falling following the PC announcement, and the dollar showing a slight upward movement. This means that nothing has been resolved yet. Inflation remains unchecked, and both Treasury yields and the dollar are at high levels.
Now, in this situation, the stock market has started to rebound. We can see the Nasdaq 1-day chart rising above the lower resistance line of the trading range that has been formed over the past two months. This was the support line within the range. I mentioned that when it breaks through here and then rebounds, it conversely becomes a resistance line.
The question is whether it breaks through this resistance line to create a genuine rebound, or hits resistance and a correction begins again. If it rises, enjoy it; if it falls, just buy the dip. Also, I have been saying all along that the area near the previous high at the end of 2021 will become a very strong support line.
This time... We can see that the market has fallen to near its previous high from late 2021 due to the correction, and is now rebounding. In that case, the crucial point here is whether this is a genuine rebound or just a temporary one. However, can we predict this? No one knows, and no one can predict it.
That is why I have been tirelessly shouting about "Ojul Consolidation"—that you should enjoy it when it rises and accept it when it falls—and ultimately, many people come full circle back to the Ojul and Ungju puddles. This is because it is the best method for individual investors. Now, if you look at the S&P 500 weekly chart, you can see that the SMP 500 has not yet fallen to its previous high from late 2021.
Since the NASDAQ and SMP 500 can serve as benchmarks in a correction and downturn like this, we can look at the SMP and prepare with the resolve that it might correct a little more before rising. Initially, those who did not hold cash during the five consecutive months of rising increased their cash positions along with me.
Then, incredibly, it fell for three consecutive weeks, and we have been responding to Ungju from this point. And I, too, this time... I mentioned that I purchased about 20 million won worth of stocks. Fortunately, looking at the weekly chart, I could see a significant rebound this week. In particular, Tesla, which had fallen sharply, rose significantly, and Google, which released tremendous earnings, also rose considerably.
I have also been mentioning that I am holding a large weighting in Semiconductor 2x USD. Luckily, it showed a significant rise this week, and even the Semiconductor 2x USD—which I initially invested in as my second holding during this correction—turned positive. However, if you look closely at the weekly chart, you can see that the meta has fallen sharply and Intel has dropped significantly.
There are quite a few people asking in the comments about the concentration of Intel stocks. To share my personal thoughts, I have a strong conviction that it is better to invest in semiconductor ETFs for peace of mind rather than trying to buy Intel with specific insights. I believe that investing in semiconductors with peace of mind is much better in terms of returns, mental fortitude, and long-term holding potential than suffering emotional distress by buying Intel, which hasn't hit its previous high for 25 years.
That is why I am investing in Semiconductor 2x USD with peace of mind. Of course, Intel is a very good company; I myself still use an Intel CPU. However, I believe that is different from that. It will trend upwards... I have a semiconductor ETF with a much higher probability of success, and I feel at ease, so I don't think it is necessary to test my own insights with my precious money.
Now, returning to the topic, we can see that a Golden Cross is imminent following the occurrence of a Dead Cross. Looking at the black vertical line, we can see that a rebound occurred when the Golden Cross took place, whether it was a genuine rebound or a temporary one. Therefore, we just need to wait for the mass timing for a genuine rebound, and for a temporary rebound, it will consolidate again when the market undergoes another correction this time.
Looking at seasonality, the market showed strength in the first quarter of this year. When stock prices show strength in the first quarter like this year, if we look at the "fourth year of the president" stock market trends, we can see that April and May were weak, and the market started to rebound from June.
If stock prices move according to this seasonality, there is a possibility that this rebound is temporary and that there is also a possibility of further decline in May. Then, you might be thinking: if there is a possibility of further decline in May, should I sell in May, following the Wall Street adage?
Personally, regarding cash ratio If you have sufficient funds, I recommend that you continue to hold your stocks. If you look at May returns over the past 10 years, the market declined only twice out of ten, and even then, the single instance dropped by a mere 0.3%. Therefore, excluding the bear market of 2022, the advice to "sell in May" has not been accurate so far.
Conversely, we should think this way: if the market falls in May, we should buy. However, if you do not have much cash in the current situation, I believe you should use this rebound to rebalance and either build up or increase your cash reserves. I always advise you to keep a cash reserve of about 10% to 30%, treating it as a separate stock.
I emphasize that this cash reserve is essential, especially since we are investing in leveraged ETFs. However, if your cash reserve is sufficient, if the market falls in May, you can simply proceed with asset accumulation by converting your cash into assets. Now, regarding Tesla, which surged the day before yesterday (this Friday) and turned positive, and the USD I recently picked up also surged and turned positive; I should just keep Tesla as is and treat it as pocket money.
I made a profit, rebalanced my USD N weighting by half, and increased my cash position by 10 million won. My current total stock weighting is roughly at the level of Bitcoin Casino. You can understand this as me increasing my cash position by 10 million won this time to maintain a cash balance of just over 10%.
Of course, I shared this in real-time with my members. If you want to obtain this information and achieve both risk management and profit, I will post the membership sign-up link in the pinned comment. I am confident that signing up and getting this information will be of great help during this correction.
This is because my second account has already turned positive as well. Now, if a further correction comes, we can efficiently use the cash we have prepared in this way and the cash we already hold to further increase our margin of safety. As you can see from my recent profits from Tesla and the double profit on semiconductors, a margin of safety that concentrates well in dips is secured, and opportunity costs are covered, leading to a rapid turnaround.
It is revealed that 90% of Tesla retail investors are currently at a loss, but if you enter a good dip, you can see profits this quickly. And cash You simply leave the remainder, excluding your allocated weight, directly invested in stocks. Then, your money will generate more money for itself. But what if the price drops?
Since you have a cash portion, any dip will appear as an opportunity. If the price rises, because a significant portion is already invested in stocks, your money will generate revenue on its own, growing your assets. This is the core of the "Ozle Woongju" investment strategy, where it is fine whether the price goes up or down.
Then, when you need a large sum of money—whether for moving, buying a house, or purchasing a car—you simply sell only the amount you need. . I will see you in tomorrow's video.
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