저자: EduardoGuimarães · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 코로나19 폭락은 과도했으니 패닉매도하지 말고 현금 여력이 있다면 분할 매수 기회로 보라는 입장. 시장 상황: 2020년 3월 이후 주식 급락은 기업 펀더멘털 대비 과도하며, 연초 대비 약 40% 하락이라고 언급. 향후 회복 경로: 벤 버냉키는 급락 후 빠른 V자 회복을 주장하나, 발표자는 코로나가 허리케인처럼 빨리 지나가지 않고 생명 위협과 실물경제 회복 지연 때문에 이에 동의하지 않음. 신규 확진 정점은 4월 중순으로 보고 그 이후 곡선이 완만해질 것으로 전망. 투자 전략: 주식 비중을 과도하게 늘린 투자자는 매도하지 말고 유지; 여유 현금이 있고 장기 관점이면 저가 매수 기회로 활용. 다만 Howard Marks처럼 패닉 시 매수보다 변동성 이후 신중하게 접근하라는 취지. 자산 배분: 분산투자가 중요하나 위기 시 상관관계가 높아져 분산 효과가 약화될 수 있음. 달러, 미국 주식, 금 등 포트폴리오 방어 자산과 유동성 준비금 보유 권장. 리스크 관리: 자신의 위험 허용 수준을 정확히 파악하고 규율 있게 실행할 것. 탈레브의 『Fooled by Randomness』를 추천. 홍보 내용: 자체 종목 추천 시리즈 '데 베스트 스톡스(The Best Stocks)' 월 1490 구독 및 할인 쿠폰 소개.
다듬은 글
Hello investors, today I'm going to talk about my perspective on the current situation in the financial market, what we're experiencing now due to this coronavirus pandemic and the volatility and risk aversion in global financial markets. But before we start this video, go ahead and subscribe to my channel, leave a like, and click on notifications so you know when there's new content.
So today I'm going to talk a lot about a book I really like, which is "The Most Important Thing" by Raul Gil Marques, a great American fund manager from Octree Caption Management. It's a very important book, and I really like it. Raul Gil Marques did a live stream this week, and we talked about his perspective on the crisis.
He also wrote a new letter, a memo, and famous Harvard members talking about the crisis. So I'm going to share some opinions and, of course, my perspective and, above all, my experience in the market. I've been in the financial market for 20 years, and I confess I'd never experienced a crisis like this before.
I've been in the market since 2000. The bursting of the internet bubble, I saw the Argentine crisis of 2001, electricity rationing in Brazil, I saw the dollar hit R$4 in 2002 and the country risk reach two thousand points during Lula's election, then of course the American real estate crisis in 2008, and now it's not really a crisis, but I think it's a cause in the financial market, a totally unexpected event, a black swan, which is the power of the coronavirus.
We saw real moments of panic, so I think one of the phrases I really like, from "I work too hard," I 'll quote it here, and in moments of crisis or panic, the correlation between assets becomes... so you diversified your portfolio, you buy various asset classes expecting that these assets will have different behaviors in moments of stress, but what we saw in March was the stock market falling sharply and the American tragedy, which is known as "not a safe haven," and gold also fell, so even in a crisis, there was no way to protect yourself from the event, as this is not an event.
...of the... nete there, that... normal distribution... a black swan... something that happens in... even the most important events of the last hundred years... that happened with world health, right? We're talking about the event that combined almost to the limit, right? That's a pleasure, and also from Housemaxx...
combining the 1929 crash, the Great Depression, the great stock market crash of the 1930s with the attack on the World Trade Center. So I highly recommend you watch Housemaxx's live streams if you don't already have them. The book "The Most Important In," it's very important, and this last one of his, which means "Which way are we going now?" So I think what we've been saying at Levante...
I'll give you my personal view on the crisis and the Levante team's view first: the reaction in asset prices was exaggerated, right? So we're not seeing the fundamentals of companies fall as much as the price, right? We're talking nonsense about almost forty percent down year-to-date, right? It was very fast and very strong, and even though the quarantine may or may not cause a big impact on the economy, the market reaction was quite exaggerated.
I like to quote the phrase from the old saying, "The white man, the old pope, invests," which goes like this: "He fulfills to the sound of cannons and comes to the sound of violins." So, for those who were out of the variable income market, who had cash, who had little exposure to risk, we are seeing good moments to buy, right?
So, our recommendation, my recommendation for you, who saw your stocks fall a lot, is not to sell, don't panic, keep your portfolio because stocks are for the long term, and if, depending on your risk profile, you have cash, you have a long-term vision, money that you wo n't need, you can, of course, find excellent entry points to buy stocks.
So, Raul de Max says that you should buy in panic, right? I think it's almost the opposite, right? So, you really buy an umbrella on a sunny day, not on a day when it's raining heavily, right? So you increase your exposure to risk, and then we're left wondering about the shape of the economic recovery.
People say it will be V-shaped, not an abrupt fall. Very strong after a recovery, and Ben Bernanke, who was chairman of the Fed, the American central bank, believes that the economy will enter a strong recession but will have a rapid recovery. And then Halle-Martell disagrees. He has three reasons that I think are quite valid.
First, he says that COVID-19 is not like a hurricane that passes quickly, so we may still be in this situation for a few months. You can see that I'm recording here at my house. Second, we are seeing people's lives threatened; we're talking about almost 10,000 deaths around the world. It's different from the 2008 crisis, which was merely financial.
Third, Housee- Martell agrees with him that the real economy will not recover so quickly. Of course, you are following Levante, the Antikal Cabinet (leave the link here if you're not already following). We believe that the peak of new cases or growth in coronavirus contamination is in mid -April, so from mid -April onwards, the curve will flatten, and then the isolation and all the precautions we are taking to avoid the disease will continue.
They'll make sense, right? They'll have an effect. There won't be so many new cases, so there could be a normalization, and then gradually the economy returns to a reasonable level. Maybe, who knows, on Mother's Day, I could be with my mother, life could return a little more to normal in May, right?
On the second Sunday, which is Mother's Day. And there's another interesting thing, right folks? We're here every day, including the Angical Cabinet, every day there's volatility, something new, right? So, a good phrase here from Raul Gil Marques is the following: in the current situation, he tries not to have a very firm opinion, survivors of things that have never happened before.
I mean, in 20 years in the financial market, I've never seen a situation like this, so it 's difficult to remember, right? Mainly difficult to say this won't happen. And then there's a very interesting concept, what do you think of the main concepts in the book "Show Important," where we talk about the second level of thinking, right?
Or for the engineers watching me, the second derivative, right? So everyone thinks about obvious things, right? And the first derivative, so everyone asks me here on Levante, on my channel, which sectors, in my opinion, will fare best in the crisis, right? So, this is the thinking in the first derivative, right?
Valdemar Sanches, in this example I'm using so you understand this second-level tank, which is a kind of thinking. I need to know how to identify the best sector and the best company to buy. I need to discover the sectors that are doing well but that the market doesn't yet know about, right? So you need to have a different perspective, one that's outside the consensus.
I repeat the expression, like buying an umbrella when the sun is shining. And of course, that's not easy. In fact, one of the papers, one of the most famous memes, right? Raul de Matos, I think the most interesting material that Eurico worked on, right? As in the stock fund, that's it, Marise, it's not easy.
Of course, you have the insight to do what Finn does and you do the contrarian investor thing, because when you're a contrarian investor, maybe everyone is panicking and desperate, and you 're happy seeing the stock market falling, right? Even in April, my friend Eduardo called me saying he liked the make-or-take cycle, he liked the fall because he was liquid, he had money, he was buying stocks on sale.
Because the contrarian investor, he'll hear all the time. He's wrong, and you need a very strong mental attitude to not get carried away by everyone panicking, and you need to have your own idea, you need your own discipline. And Valdemar, I was a little worried about what he said because he said the following: the American central bank is opening the toolbox, all possible and imaginable measures to rescue the American economy.
So he said the following: if you think about the second derivative of thought, will these measures not be effective? And will this flood of money, this enormous excess of liquidity in the market, not lead to shortages in the United States? So it's a very important question. So, what do I think are the main lessons, I would say, from this conversation today?
Diversification is important, regardless of whether, when the market panics, the correlation already exists. You need to be careful. I would even say that asset diversification is the last free lunch in the market. You need to do this, and you need to do risk management. So, this is the last example here from Valdemar, where he says the following: look, in the crisis now, how...
Imagine you're driving, taking driving lessons at a driving school, wanting to learn to drive cautiously and safely, but this is after you've crashed the car, right? So I think there are many investors who were at a very high risk level, who didn't know their risk level, and then ended up discovering the way in this very strong market fall.
So, folks, my recommendation is to stay calm, don't do anything in a panic, in the heat of the moment. And I think there are three paths you can follow. So, you recognize that you exaggerated your share of variable income, stocks, of your portfolio—don't touch it, don't sell. And new resources that come in, you put into other asset classes, such as assets linked to the red equation, right?
The dollar, the American stock market, gold, and things that will protect your portfolio. It also includes, of course, liquidity reserves. Okay, folks, I've said several times, cash is one thing, liquidity reserves are another. So, don't give any stocks if you have a long-term vision, and if you have this liquidity reserve and you have cash, you have room to increase your risk appetite, right?
Because what happened now is that I don't like risk, I'll put it on my plate. You see it falling, you do... I thought it was thirty percent... my The portion of the assets is actually 25%, so people are reducing it, but do it with discipline and execute, and always have cash on hand. And then at the end, he mentions a book that, for me, is one of the best on the financial market, which is "Deceived by Chance," by Taleb Cooler from the neighborhood.
So it's a true lesson on risk. So for you who made it to the end of this video and have this cash, who have an appetite, who see an opportunity to buy stocks, I created this here to celebrate my 27,000 subscribers on the channel. Thank you, everyone! 27,000 on my YouTube channel! I'm talking about seven months of the channel and I've already reached 27,000.
I wanted a special discount coupon, edu27k, so you can check out my work there. In the series "The Best Stocks of Levante," this week I included a new one in the portfolio. So, a company that, like us, is cyclical and will have good performance in this moment of coronavirus, right? To diversify your portfolio, then the best stocks received this recommendation.
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Let's stay calm and buy cautiously. There are many stocks on sale. That's it folks. If you liked it, give it a like and send suggestions for companies and sectors to talk about here on the channel. A big hug, have an excellent weekend, see you next time! Bye bye!
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