저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
신흥시장은 1987년 1억 달러 규모 첫 펀드 이후 자산이 400억 달러로 성장했고 지금은 세계 곳곳으로 투자 범위가 넓어졌다는 점을 강조한다. 성장률 측면에서 2016년 신흥국 평균 성장률 약 4.3%로 선진국 2%보다 높으며, 폴란드는 3.4~4% 수준으로 중간 정도이고 브라질·남아공은 낮다고 평가한다. 인플레이션은 신흥국이 평균 7.7%로 선진국(1% 미만)보다 높지만 폴란드는 디플레이션 가능성(약 0.7%)을 언급한다. 실업률은 신흥국이 높고 폴란드는 약 9.6%다. 외환보유액은 신흥국이 선진국보다 훨씬 많고 중국이 약 3.3조 달러로 대부분을 차지하며, 폴란드는 약 910억 달러다. 공공부채 비율은 신흥국에서 줄고 있고 폴란드는 약 46%로 중간 수준이다. 경상수지는 신흥국이 선진국보다 양호하지만 폴란드는 적자로 신용평가사가 우려한다고 언급한다. 시가총액 측면에서 신흥국 비중은 1990년대 16~18%에서 현재 약 32%로 커졌고, 폴란드는 국영기업 민영화가 더 필요해 시장 규모와 유동성이 작다는 점을 과제로 든다. 기업공개(IPO) 자금조달은 신흥국 비중이 1996년 약 10%에서 약 32%로 늘었고, 중국은 신규 자금조달 규모에서 미국에 근접했다. 사업 환경 지표는 선진국과 동유럽이 우수하고 아프리카가 어렵다고 평가하며, 폴란드는 법치와 부패 지수가 양호하다고 말한다. 성과 측면에서 1988년 이후 28년 중 17년 동안 신흥국 지수가 선진국을 앞섰지만 최근 3년은 부진했다고 한다. 폴란드는 21년 중 9년(42%)만 신흥국 대비 우위였고, 다변화 포트폴리오를 강조한다. 밸류에이션은 폴란드 PER 약 11배로 선진국 16배보다 낮고 신흥국 평균 수준이며, PBR은 다른 신흥국보다 저렴하다고 본다. 장기적으로 신흥국 지수에서 30% 이상 하락한 약세장은 짧았고 강세장이 더 길다고 설명한다. 1988년 이후 강세장 평균 상승률은 356%(평균 69개월), 약세장 평균 하락률은 57%(평균 14개월)이며, 정기적으로 같은 금액을 투자하는 적립식(dollar cost averaging)과 약세장 저점 매수를 권한다. 폴란드 시장은 장기적으로 매력적이지만 항상 그런 것은 아니라고 평가한다. 개별 종목·지역 추천은 특정하지 않았고 단기 가격 전망은 명시적으로 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
thank you very much all of you for coming up by the way yes 40 years I started when I was ten years old don't laugh but seriously it's been quite an adventure because just here in support I was here about 10 years ago and the only thing that's familiar is the Chinese restaurant everything else has changed it's remarkable how this place has been upgraded and changed and improved so it's it's very inspiring and of course this hotel is a good example of that but to give you an example of what we see in terms of changes if you look at emerging markets in 1987 we saw to the very first emerging markets fund in 1987 we had a hundred million dollars and it seemed like a terrible lot of money too much money because we couldn't invest in most countries you could see here in orange the countries in which we were invested there were five markets six markets five of them were in Asia one of them was the Latin America Mexico and that was it today we are all over the world because now we can invest in what was communist China communist Russia communist Poland all of these places have opened up to us and it's been a big adventure and of course the number of investors have increased dramatically and our assets went up to 40 billion dollars just us alone because there many other emerging market investors Shanghai across the river there by the way on this side is the boon that all you've been to Shanghai is the old financial district on the other side you can see was green it was farms and so forth today it looks like this the same hbu tremendous changes if you look at Dubai we opened an office in dubai at this time in that building in the distance we had a small office there today Dubai is like this these are big big changes and of course if you look at Beijing when I first went to Beijing 25 years ago I was on one of those bicycles today very difficult to get on a bicycle in Beijing because you can see the traffic and Poland of course when I first came the stores were empty there were very few things on the shelves and you can see what it looked like today it's much improved and of course this picture really doesn't do it justice it's a lot better than this so we've seen tremendous economic growth in emerging markets and this year 2016 we expect to see about 4.3 percent average growth for emerging markets around the world versus two percent for the developed countries if we look at Poland Poland is more or less in the middle you can see Poland's looking at 3.4 maybe four percent this year India is looking at seven China's looking at 6.7 and then you have South Africa and Brazil down in the low point so Brazil and South Africa look bad but Poland looks pretty good in terms of growth inflation if you look at inflation in the world you'll see that emerging markets tend to have higher inflation about 7.7 percent this year compared to less than one percent for the developed countries and this year we're looking at actually deflation in Poland about point seven of course this can be disputed by many people but that's the number that we're looking at and you can see Brazil Turkey South Africa way way up unemployment if you look at the employment picture you will see that emerging markets of course have higher unemployment than the developed world seven point five versus five point four and Poland is again pretty much in the middle about 9.6 we're looking at for this year forecasts South Africa is the highest six percent and Thailand the Louis at point nine fon reserves very important in these countries because you know when we go into a country we bring in dollars or Euros we want to be able to get them out so if country has few fond reserves we get a little worried but you can see here that emerging markets shown in red have much much more in foreign reserves than the developed countries which is very very good healthy seven trillion in reserves of course about three trillion of those is China you can see here China has got about three point three trillion Poland is way down the list about 91 billion as you know the rating agencies a little worried about the reserves here but we have to keep an eye on that government dead this is something that we look at and we're very happy to see that since the asian financial crisis these emerging market countries have been very careful in the way they spend and the debt public debt by the way public that different private ty private that has been going out but public debt to GDP is going down whereas in the developed countries it's going up and if you look at poland you can see that it's about forty six percent in the middle of the range there are other countries that are higher but as you know the rating agencies a little worried excuse me little worried about you know what's happening with the debt-to-gdp current account if you look at the emerging markets you see you see that the current account as a percent of GDP is much better than in the developed countries excuse me I flew in from Hong Kong so I'm still between climates but you can see here emerging markets a current account as a percent of GDP as much much better than the developed countries so again emerging markets have been doing pretty well in the case of Poland again I mentioned the rating agencies are worried about this the deficit current account deficit as a percent of GDP but again there are many countries that are worse than Poland if we look at market capitalization you'll see that emerging markets have really grown very rapidly and one of the main reasons is that there's been incredible privatization of state-owned enterprises we've seen many many governments around the world say look it doesn't make sense for us to be running a steel mill or us to be having a chemical plant we will privatized and this is the reason why you've seen the market capitalization of emerging markets go from sixteen to eighteen percent of the world to now about thirty two percent of the world market capitalization and growing in the case of Poland it's quite low compared to other countries and this is one of the big challenges we have in investing in Poland because the choices and liquidity are not very good so we hope that the government will decide to sell more of their state-owned enterprises and widen the market so that we can have more to invest and if we look at the market capitalization a percent of GDP South Africa is the highest the United States is about one hundred and twenty-five percent of GDP malkin compensation but Poland is only thirty one percent so there's a need for more lists things on the Polish market IPOs if you look at the amount of money raised through initial public offerings and secondary issues you'll see that developed markets of course are greater shown in blue emerging markets shown in red the green line is the percent that emerging markets take of the global IPO and secondary issue market and you can see that's gone from a very low percent about ten percent back in 1996 to now about thirty two percent very similar to what the market capitalization is Poland again because of the small market is very very low in relationship to other countries in terms of the amount of money array is of course China is almost as big as the u.s.
in terms of new money raised now let's turn to actually doing business if you look at the indices for the ease of doing business you see that developed markets are better they have a better ranking the lower bar means that it's much easier to do business in the developed countries Eastern Europe is very good actually Eastern Europe comes next filed by Asia Pacific Middle East and then of course Africa very difficult to do business in Africa and if we look at individual countries you'll see that Poland is very good a very good rule of law very good adherence to what's happening in fact I noticed that yesterday at the lunch you said the lunch was starting at eleven thirty and I was there about 11 25 and I had forgotten something in my room and I came back and you were already sitting down that's the rule of law everybody is on time so that's a very good point if we look at corruption you see that by the way in this case the high bar is good the low bar is bad and of course the EU and Western Europe is very good with less corruption very clean whereas sub-saharan Africa is low on the totem pole in terms of corruption and Poland again is very very high very little corruption in Poland I don't know whether you all agree with me some of you look somewhat skeptical but I think in the comparison of many other countries you'll find that Poland is in very very good shape in that regard now let's look at performance if you look at emerging markets out of the 28 years since 1988 by the way 1988 although we saw the emerging markets fund in 1987 the very first one 1988 when's when the index was started the msci index so if you measure all the periods annual periods you'll see that 17 out of the 28 years emerging markets outperformed that's about sixty one percent of the time so if you had put money in emerging markets a very beginning you had been ahead but the last three years have been bad we've seen under performance against the US and developed markets now we're beginning to see a change and we hope that will continue however in the case of Poland it's been nine out of the 21 years our performance forty-two percent of the time so emerging markets generally have been outperforming Poland but here again it shows you the importance of diversification because they've been sometimes when Poland did very very well and not performed if you look at emerging markets performance since 1987 you will see that emerging markets have done a lot better than the developed countries in terms of performance and in the case of Poland again Poland has outperformed the diversified Marcus portfolio which is why we always recommend to people be diversified yes Poland will be a great market sometimes but not always valuations if you look at the valuations of Poland versus emerging and developed markets you see that Poland is more or less in the average of emerging markets about 11 times price earnings ratio versus 16 for the developed countries and if you look at the price to book value actually Poland is cheaper than most other emerging markets terms of price to book value looking at the future if we take a long-term view of emerging markets you'll see the index and shown in red the line is the emerging markets index and you see those yellow bars those yellow bars denote the times when the index went down by more than thirty percent and the amazing thing about this chart is that those yellow bars are very narrow they don't last very long the bull markets last longer than the bear markets the problem I face is a fund manager is that people tend to contact me when the market is down and is crashing and they say what are you doing and I try to tell him please wait and I remember my sister-in-law who lives in Buffalo New York had invested in our fund right before the asian crisis and I unfortunately had to visit my brother there right at the bottom of the market of course they were losing money on the fund on my fund and I not remember knocking on the door and I heard her voice behind the door who's there I said it's mark she said I'm not opening the door and give me my money back I said if you open the door I'll tell you how to get your money back she opened it slightly but kept a chain on the door she said how I said buy more she slammed the door my face and because if she had bought you could see at the bottom there she'd bought at the bottom she would have done quite well and then lost it again it's been the next crisis but if you dollar cost average you see that you do quite well and I remember many years ago I was with our chairman sir john templeton in canada we were making a speech and of course at the end of his speech he took questions from the audience and a young lady got up and said sir john i've just inherited some money i'd like to know when should i invest should i wait should i do it now what should i do I don't know I'm confused I don't know what to do how to invest when to invest sir john said young lady the best time to invest is when you have money and i thought to myself this sounds like a mutual fund sales been talking but then I did the numbers and I realized that if you analyze the bull and bear markets you see that the bull markets all during this period since 1988 went up an average of three hundred and fifty six percent and lasted an average of 69 months whereas the bear markets went down an average of fifty-seven percent and lasted an average of fourteen months so if you're a dollar cost averaging put putting the same amount every month or every quarter how you'll do very well and if you are smart enough to really go in and brave enough to go in during the bear period you'll do exceptionally well because bear markets are always followed by bull markets and vice versa the good news is that the bull markets last longer and go up because the percentages are in your favor if you're buying at the bottom thank you very much i have a blog and twitter if you're interested in more and i'd be happy to take any questions you may have thank you you
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