Tesla Earnings | w/Jim Cramer & Solving The Money Problem

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결론: 테슬라 2020년 3분기 실적은 흑자 지속과 성장으로 긍정 평가, 기업 가치 논쟁은 남아 있음. [실적·기업 평가] 테슬라 재무는 깨끗하고 경쟁사를 압도하는 상태라는 평가. 분기 흑자 전환(5분기 연속 흑자), 매출 87.7억 달러로 전분기 대비 약 40% 증가, 판매 13.9만 대. 애널리스트 상향 조정 이어짐. [애널리스트 비판] 오랫동안 틀린 전망을 내온 애널리스트들은 신뢰를 잃었으니 가치평가 근거를 모른다면 침묵하거나 한계를 밝히라고 주장. 과거 공매도 세력과 베어(하락론자)들을 비판. [규제 크레딧(ZEV)] 규제 크레딧 매출이 없으면 흑자가 어려웠다는 지적에 대해 출연자들은 규제 크레딧은 자동차 업계의 정상적 경쟁 구조이며 타사도 비슷하게 활용한다고 반박. 테슬라는 이 수익을 생산 확대와 비용 절감에 활용한다는 입장. [생산 확대·수요] 기가 베를린·기가 텍사스 가동, 사이버트럭·세미 주문 60만 건 이상 언급. 베를린 공장은 연 200만 대까지 확대 가능하다는 주장. 공급(배터리)이 병목이며 수요는 충분하다는 입장. [가치 평가·장기 전망] 시가총액 약 4,050억 달러(주가 약 430달러)는 폭스바겐·다임러·BMW·GM·페라리·포드·혼다·현대차 합계와 맞먹는 수준으로 변동성 우려 언급. 10년 내 신차 대다수가 전기차가 되고 내연기관 업체 상당수는 파산할 것이라는 장기 전망. 보급형 2만5천 달러 전기차(2~3년 후)가 시장 지배의 핵심이라는 견해. [출연자 발언 요지] Cramer: 실적 깨끗, 분석가 비판, 장기 긍정. Steve(Solving The Money Problem): 생산·주문 성장 강조, 2만5천 달러 전기차 전망. Phil: 규제 크레딧은 경쟁 구조의 일부로 정당하다는 입장. [리스크] 규제 크레딧 의존, 공급(배터리) 병목, 고평가 부담, 공매도 세력과의 논쟁.

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01. i i thought that this was uh a really fantastic quarter you have the analysts who don't know what to do they really don't because they've been wrong david they've been so wrong that it's better just to say you know what i i never really understood the valuation but i i do think the company's a pretty good company as far as the zev credits the simple fact is this tesla is eating their competitors lunch and they're making them pay for it that's a pretty cool trick all right welcome back everyone both of you and old to those that i knew feel free to drop a like and comment below what's your price targets for the coming year for tesla that'd be awesome to hear and if you're willing to join our discord a link will be provided below got great community kicking about there today we're going to be deep diving into tesla's earnings with jim cramer and solving the money problem so this would be a good video to kind of share our own perspectives and discuss what we agree and disagree with right let's crack on i thought that this was uh a really fantastic quarter a couple reasons one is is that if you look at the financials of tesla they are as clean as can be uh and i could argue that this company is doing incredibly well the conference call was a conference call that reminds me of uh people who just want to tell the truth straight as can be elon musk i'm not saying he's restrained or he's in a straight jacket but what a terrific conference call it's very hard to think uh negatively about this company i know that there are people who talk obviously valuation but there are a couple upgrades today uh and i think they have they can't fight it it's the the reason why they can't fight it is because when everything works it's very difficult to argue what the price should be because right now this company is doing incredibly well uh and if they make as many cars as they say uh what you're gonna say is you know what i know that it sells at a gigantic priced earnings mall price to multiple whatever but david when i read through the tesla notes what i what i read are analysts who are just saying you know what i can't fight it anymore i have to like it yeah i did notice one of those fashionably late yeah it's a good title yeah beard upgrading to outperform i mean fashionably if look at the move in that stock at this point i'm not sure you want to weigh in and say you're out you're upgrading now that's that's pretty embarrassing is it just me or has the tone really changed in the last 6 12 months on cnbs i mean david literally just said that it's embarrassing to be an analyst now who's finally coming to the party going oh hey guys i just upgraded desert stock i finally get it now look at me i finally get it yeah now don't get me wrong here it's definitely better late than never shout out gordon johnson but it really does seem like the tone has changed in the mainstream finance media at least on one of these networks a couple of years ago people were mocking tesla left right and center they had short shills bears clowns dingbats morons and plenty of stuff in between very few people having a reasonable discussion about tesla they couldn't get past a quarterly loss or next quarter or next week now suddenly people are seeing the big picture and realizing the inevitability of what tesla's going to do now i don't want to labor the point but it really does matter what's being said on the mainstream finance media networks regarding tesla this affects widespread sentiment and that causes people to make decisions such as buying or selling securities so this really does matter the mainstream finance media narrative has done a 180 in the span of 12 months from tesla sucks they're going bankrupt stay away to nobody's catching tesla rip legacy auto yeah and i just wanted to add to that with these analysts continuously pricing tesla wrong they lose credibility to the point where people just won't give them their money to provide their hedges it's it's one of these things that if you're continually saying that something's going to go down and it goes up nobody's going to believe you but jim when you get to the metrics that you're looking at to try to determine what a price should be granted if this company is operating extraordinarily well i still wonder what is an appropriate multiple i mean they still largely are i mean again you argue they're a technology company that's what i thought you have to i mean this morning there are two uh price target bumps for ford now i happen to think ford's doing extremely well because they decided to not lose as much money as they used to oh jim cramer what a savage i mean i like it but wow i mean just uh it's just ridiculous your argument is that tesla's a technology company of course it is you fool of course it is they have fsd they have data coming from every single tesla in the fleet sent to their networks to further improve their beta that's just been released you know it just doesn't it blows my mind that these guys even have to to it's it's like saying that the sun is yellow of course it is we're talking about uh uh jp morgan going from seven to nine barclays eight to nine but you know what david these are companies that are bound by the conventional four walls of the spreadsheet people are not going to give ford any of the credit because they don't like this whole model i had mr fisker on last night and basically what those guys do is make a car okay and it sells because it's great looking and that's what i feel about elon musk he makes cars but he's fully integrated uh the cars he do 500 whatever he sells whatever he makes he's going to sell there's no dealer network and now he's starting to say the same thing in china so what you see is a frictionless model so you have the analysts who don't know what to do they really don't because they've been wrong david they've been so wrong that it's better just to say you know what i i never really understood the valuation but i i do think the company's a pretty good company this is a great point from jim as many of us know so many analysts have been so wrong for so long however i beg to differ just marginally in terms of jim's suggestion to these analysts of just going well i don't know what the [ __ ] going on i never have but hey i like the company i would much rather these analysts who don't know what the [ __ ] going on with tesla and again this isn't to disparage them this is just some genuine well-meaning advice is to just shut the [ __ ] up again this isn't like coming from a place of hate or anger i just literally mean shut the [ __ ] up until you know what you're talking about then talk or preface your analysis your price targets etc with i've been completely wrong the entire time i still don't know what the [ __ ] i'm talking about but here's what i think because if analysts are going out there and being so incredibly embarrassingly wrong about a company for so long they lose credibility it's better to explain you don't know what you're talking about but here's what you think or just don't talk i mean am i crazy like do you guys agree let me know in the comments should an analyst who doesn't have a high level of confidence in their analysis just not provide it or explain that they don't have a high level of confidence i think that's probably a good way to operate because you're less likely to get roasted on a random youtube video that way just saying make that double i mean i completely agree with stephen that's exactly what i said earlier but you've got to keep in mind from my perspective the majority of wall street aren't genuine to the point where a lot of these guys who are bearish on tesla have bias towards it maybe they're in a short position maybe they're oil shells who knows he mentioned gordon johnston for instance like do you genuinely believe there's a dude that stupid i mean dave lee is probably one of the oldest ogs in tesla in the youtube game and even he gets irritated at him do you honestly think there's a person so unbelievably ignorant or just hypothetically speaking because i could be totally wrong they might be getting paid and that's where these people are coming down it's amazing i can't think of another place time i've ever seen it no really no that is a massive call from kramer to suggest remember this guy has been in the stock game for decades ran his own hedge fund i mean you don't need me to explain who kramer is the fact that he of all of the companies and stocks he's ever looked at has never seen anything like the disconnect between endless consensus around tesla and the reality is huge it's it's really eye-opening because i remember kramer back in the day really bearish on tesla and you know after the interview that he had with tesla daily with rob his his whole entire ego has shifted from one end to the other you can even see in the interview himself he's starting to really open his eyes to it and he's a lot more open-minded to it and it's people like this like steven said that really shift the change in the majority of retail investors because a lot of people see cnbs as a reputable platform and so by listening to jim saying yes tesla's good is also going to make the stock go higher in the long term that's really mean good to hear is just where a ceo is masterful where a company has done amazing things and uh what the financials no longer see remember all the short sellers require you say the financials are phone you take a look at the movies or that yes you know carl i know the credits matter but what really matters i think with tesla's is that uh it's flawless flawless execution even in the time of covid they ended up doing everything right um and carl i i just read it and i think if this were tech company it deserves to sell exactly where it's selling just give me a quick take your quick take on sort of this quarter and how it fits into what we've been seeing lately from tesla uh they are much more consistent about turning a profit david and i know there will be some people who will say well look without the zero emission vehicle credits that they received from other companies who bought them from tesla so they could offset their uh their carbon emissions standards that they weren't meeting whether it's in europe or the us or wherever that doesn't matter that's part of the game and you shouldn't hold that against tesla fact of the matter is it was a fifth profitable quarter now going forward which stood out and especially during the conference call they talked about this they're going to be ramping up production giga berlin and giga texas that's the plant that's being built in austin they'll start production late next year it's not going to be big volume but this is this period here david where we see over the next year to two years to three years where you're going to see big ramp up in production from tesla going to be demand for that ramp up in production uh they believe there will be uh now remember you've got the tesla semi the question becomes how many uh companies are gonna say yeah we do want that electric semi coming out of the gigafactory in texas the cyber truck we've talked about that and then berlin i definitely think there's going to be demand there i mean europe is a market where electric vehicles there is demand and as countries are mandating you need electric vehicles there you will see that uh definitely take off there's definitely no question over demand there's just a question over people's ability to infer future demand based on the economics of electric vehicles i mean i guess we'll just have to wait and see for the doubters out there but i'm telling you guys now 10 years time the majority of new vehicles being produced will be electric most of the companies that used to produce internal combustion in your vehicles will be bankrupt tesla will be dominating and hopefully there's a few other players that are chasing tesla in a distant second third fourth and fifth remember the berlin gigafactory alone will ultimately ramp to 2 million vehicles per year yes tesla has confirmed this 2 million vehicles per year just from the berlin gigafactory things are just getting started adding on to that tesla's very logical and methodical and their vertical integration is second to none there's nobody else in the planet that has that level of vertical integration and with that being said at the moment the demand is not a problem it is the supply and the supply where is it it's the batteries what were we told in battery investor day how to fix that so they're constantly innovating they've got a creative environment to allow all their employees to push the innovation they just can't be stopped phil i've got to know what you what your take is on the sale of these regulatory credits four quarters in a row in which they would not have turned a profit without them but so much of the demand picture seems to overshadow that it does overshadow that uh and i guess the thing that i come back to is everyone says well they wouldn't be profitable without that but that is part of the game here and it's in the auto industry i never hear anybody say you know this particular automaker had to spend x hundred million dollars for zev credits so they didn't they don't get dinged for their sales in europe why is it never on the other end it's only with regard to tesla i understand that people say strictly looking at the operations they would not have turned a profit but they are continuing to grow their sales their gross margins improved substantially i think generally speaking the zev credits to a certain extent it's a bit overplayed by those who are do not believe in the tesla story or who want to discredit them turning a profit i completely agree with phil on this point i've covered it many times in the past the regulatory credits are part of the competitive landscape they're available tesla has big brains managing their money they go oh we can get some credits we can factor that revenue in we can use some of that money to expand our production reduce our costs invest in your equipment instead of pleasing morons who think that we can't make a profit without those regulatory credits and actually i don't really think these people are morons honestly i think they're pretty smart individuals just trying to fiddle and play with in numbers and spin things for a bearish narrative because maybe they're short maybe they're a paid oil shield maybe they just want to see elon musk fail because it'll make them feel better about their life just saying i mean when it comes down to regulatory credits you can think of it like you're working your job bunch of other employees who are in the exact same industry need something that you have and they really need it or else they're going to get fined shitless for it and so they're willing to pay for it and then you can then use that money that those employees are giving to you to then push your innovation and push your work even harder it's it's so ironic steve we know you've been a believer in the tesla story for some time um i mean this year has of course been incredible as we've watched the stock price move up as we said over 400 percent but from here steve do you really think there's more even given the success of the company that can be done or do you need to believe that tesla as many say is more than a car company look there are a couple points here first you just have to stop and acknowledge tesla's killed it this is a spending quarter uh sold uh you know 139 000 vehicles they're on track to 500 000 vehicles when elon musk said they were going to hit 500 000 that sounded like a pipe dream now they're doing it second record quarter 8.77 billion dollars just so people understand that's a 40 uptick from just last quarter so they're doing bringing all these new products to market by the way not just the semi cyber truck in the wings over 600 000 orders and to me most interestingly a 25 000 car that could be two two and a half years out that is when you start seeing tesla being the number one selling car in the country electric or gas that is a massive call from steve but i think he's onto something just picture this two two and a half three years into the future tesla has a 25 000 electric vehicle with autopilot full autonomy available as an option or a subscription as well how does anyone compete with that they don't this is exactly what i said in my last video like people make the mistake that cyber truck semi you know all these brand new lines that are coming into production is going to be the big bomb for tesla it's not it's not let's just emphasize this point here it is the 25 000 car and both steve from solving the money problem and the analysts know this as well they know this very very well cyber truck semis these are stepping stones to take over a bit of the market the 25 000 ev is the one that dominates the market so i think there is some headroom but you got to pause here for a minute and take a breath and say at 430 bucks a share 405 billion market cap and i love tesla but that means the tesla is valued as highly as volkswagen daimler bmw general motors ferrari ford honda and hyundai all put together so look i think there could be some turbulent times here by the way as far as the zev credits the simple fact is this tesla is eating their competitors lunch and they're making them pay for it that's a pretty cool trick what a great point to wrap this video up on i mean just brilliantly articulated whether or not you think tesla can't make a profit with or without regulatory credits how about we flip the script and just consider this fact the companies that are attempting to catch up to tesla currently are paying tesla to get further ahead because said companies can't build electric vehicles fast enough because they're so far behind i mean just on that note a lot of these old legacy car makers tend to outsource pretty much everything the whole supply chain is all over the place i mean even back when tesla was first founded before elon became the ceo and they were scaling up the roadster not a lot of people know that tesla almost became bankrupt because of contracting to other people to get stuff done like this is what almost completely destroyed the company until elon stepped in that's why it's so important to the company but it's at a point now just like with steve jobs and apple that even without the head it's still going to succeed very well on that note if you've liked the video so far feel free to like comment and subscribe if you're new below helps me push out more videos and encourages me to grow and once again have a nice day hope you enjoyed this type of content and i'll see you next time bye