저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee은 인플레이션 둔화와 연준의 완화적 스탠스로 미국 경제 회복력이 유지되며 향후 12개월간 미국 주식시장이 강세를 이어갈 것으로 봤다. 머니마켓펀드에 약 7조 달러 현금이 대기 중이고 AAII 심리지표 강세/약세 격차가 벌어져 있어 긍정적이라 했다. 2025년 신정부는 친성장(pro-growth) 정책으로 시장에 우호적이라 평가. 다만 성장 둔화, 주택·자동차 부담, 관세 등 리스크는 존재한다고 언급. 섹터로는 중소형주와 경기민감주가 성과를 낼 것으로 봤다.
다듬은 글
in the latest interview with CNBC Tomy State bullish with US Stock Market he said quote unquote I wouldn't be too worried about the next 12 month so what's his reasoning behind the bullishness um he he believes that the economy is showing resilience with inflation decreasing and the Federal Reserve adopting a more favorable stance so pretty much a less hackage stance due to the uh decrease of the inflation and this chart shows you that CPI the US CPI of 5year charge as we can see right now we're very close very close to the 2% long-term inflation goal said by the Federal Reserve Tommy said the interest rates are stabilizing which supports both Equity market and housing market Tomy said historical patterns suggest that uh a market May outperform or perform well even after two consecutive 20% up years okay so this is S&P 500 chart as we can see since uh 2023 to 2024 for that one year it saw a 22.5% gain and uh from 2024 till today year to date we are already seeing a 27.2% gain and historically historically speaking when we have two year of two consecutive year of 20% uh plus gain on the S&P usually the year following that is performing pretty well according to Tom Lee um and uh Tommy said there is a $7 trillion in cash on the sideline uh waiting to deploy okay and waiting to uh could be used as a fuel for the future investment of course and uh this is a chart um from the Investment Company Institute or ICI it's telling us that as of November 26 uh the total amount of money market fund uh is currently sitting at uh 6.7 trillion doll and that's what Tommy was talking about the $7 trillion cash on the sideline waiting to deploy and hisor this is a historical pattern is telling us something right this is from the Fred uh it's showing us the total value of the money market fund in the US and uh as we can see a chart from 1994 since 1994 um the value the total value of money market fund they tend to increase when the interest rate are higher or when the federal reserves are more hogish uh conversely when the interest rate are being lowered the fund will flow out of the money market fund will go back into the investment like the stock market or the housing market and right now we are here right it's going a still going a uptrend but since as we mentioned before the Federal Reserve is lowering interest rate and maybe these money almost $7 trillion value in uh money market fund will be deployed as the U right as the lower interest rate historically speaking right when the co happened when the they floored the interest rate we do see a dip over here and uh the great financial crisis when they floor the interest rate we see a dip in the money market fund right same as the Doom bubble when there's a decrease in interest rate we see a decrease in money market fund or another word deploying of the cash uh back into the market Tomley also mentioned uh the that the sentiment improved based on a aii uh aii sentiment survey and this chart shows you the AI sent survey uh of a five-year chart the blue represents the bullish views uh or percentage of bullish uh survey takers and the red represent the bearish percentage of the survey takers and as we can see the bow and Bear have a pretty good spread okay and last time we had this type of spread was in uh uh 2021 Tomy has also said that a new Administration in 2025 is seen as progrowth the exact term he used is pro-animal Spirits uh with policies uh favorable to the market and uh but he dides still he still realized that there are risks he said risks risks remains from slowed drob growth uh housing and auto affordability issues and trade uncertainties like potential tariffs I do want to add that a very popular Economist Jeremy seagull recently said that Donald Trump is the most Pro Stock Market president in the history in the uh American history I'm not too surprised that German SEO said that because Donald Trump does love to mention the the phrase stock market the stock market has gained trillions of dollars in value since my election and has reached record highs the stock market is up very very big today uh We've set new records and I think they'll be continued to set the stock market is hitting one all-time record after another boosting your 401ks and retirement accounts for everyday Americans everybody happy with your 401k the stock market is shattering one record after another we have broken a lot of Records we're breaking another one today the stock market is way up jobs are back we're setting a record literally all the time the stock market smashes one record high after another the stock market is smashing one record after another so now back to Tom Lee which sector we all perform uh Tomley believes that small cap stocks and uh uh cyclical stocks are expected to perform well with some investors shifting Focus away away from the large cap uh Tech or we call that magnificent 7 or in Old terms the Fang F uh I'm here adding a chart to support his idea as we as right now we do see see that year to dat 2024 through November 21st the percentage of stocks that are uh all performing the S&P 500 Index uh is around 35% but the median is at 48% since the data since 1990 okay this is telling us that we still have a very high concentration in the top large cap technology stocks there could be great supporting Tomy view there could be money shifting away in future from that high concentration into other uh less uh loved sectors like the small Caps or the uh cyclical stocks but Tomy did say that investor currently are divided on whether to favor cyclical or large cap tech stocks BAS on the survey fun Strat or pretty much the the the institution that Tommy is the owner of fun Strat recently conducted a survey based on that survey it seems like institutional investors aka the smart money are leaning towards cyclical stocks while the retail advisors okay so pretty much the professional financial advisors towards gear towards uh retail investors these advisors are leaning towards large cap technology stocks thank you very much please please don't forget to like And subscribe
Comments 0