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i think this kind of crazy speculation in enterprises not even found or picked out yet is a sign of an irritating bubble charlie munger is vice chairman of the biggest investing firm in the world right hand man to warren buffett and truly i believe one of the greatest thinkers of our time it'd be hard to argue not now every year nerdy investors like myself flocked to listen to his annual meeting over at the daily journal corporation here people get to ask charlie basically any question that they want and to no surprise a lot of people asked about a stock market bubble forming in 2021 let's take a look at what he said many observers see market behavior that reminds them of the dot-com bubble wild speculation endless facts and ipos soaring on their first day of trading do you agree that there is a close parallel to the late 90s this therefore quote must end badly yes i think it must end badly but i don't know when i think this kind of crazy speculation in enterprises not even found or picked out yet is a sign of an irritating bubble it's most egregious in the momentum trading by novice investors lured in by new types of brokerage operation like robinhood and i think all of this activity is regrettable i think civilization would do better without it you'll remember that when the first big bubble came which was the south sea bubble in england back in the 1700s it created such havoc eventually when it blew up that england didn't allow hardly any public trading and securities of any companies for decades thereafter it just created the most unholy mess so human greed and the aggression of the brokerage community creates these bubbles from time to time and i think wise people just stay out of them so i'm sure that we're all aware that the market has changed from where it was three five ten years ago and as ray dalio puts it we're in the later stages of the bulmaker now what happens here and what we're seeing everywhere is the drive towards short-term profits a lot of novice investors are in the market to get rich and get rich quickly so they look for the stocks that are the most hyped most talked about and they place what is called a momentum trade here you buy a stock because it's been going up you ride the momentum and then you hope to sell it a couple of months later for a quick profit and there's not just a few groups of people doing this a lot of investors are buying stocks this way this causes prices to go up and up and up and it sounds all well and good but prices can't keep going up forever at some points the direction will change because as warren buffett says no stock is worth an infinite value at some point stock prices have to come back to their intrinsic value and this is why manga thinks this momentum trading is dangerous and a lot of people could get burnt just like what happened in the south sea bubble in england way back in the 1700s so these are just signs that the market is very high signs that the market's in a bubble but by no means does this mean that we're definitely going to see the market come down quickly and the key reason behind this is interest rates well i think everybody is willing to hold stocks at higher price earnings multiples when interest rates as low as they are now so i i don't think it's necessarily crazy that good companies sell at way higher multiples than they used to on the other hand it as you say i didn't get rich by buying stocks at high price earnings multiples in the midst of crazy speculative booms and i'm not going to change i am more willing to hold stocks at high moldables than i would be if interest rates were a lot lower everybody is you see for every stock investor we have two key options to put our money one is in the bank in treasuries and in bonds and the other option is stocks but the problem that we have today is that interest rates are ridiculously low as you can see the federal funds rate is around 0.1 pretty much the lowest that it's ever been in history so we could have our money in the bank in treasuries or in bonds but because rates are so low we get close to nothing when we have our money here so that means our leftover cash has to go somewhere and it ends up in stocks and this is what manga is saying here yes stock prices are very high right now but that's because interest rates are very low this is the key thing that justifies where stock prices are right now and what manga said in the clip is that he's obviously not rushing in to buy stocks at these prices but he's also not gonna sell and that's because there's no other great place to put your money and one of the natural things that we're seeing in this market is that people are saying the old school value investment style of buying stocks is dead it will not work in the future even investors like kathy wood she's had this warning towards old-school type value investors manga says value investing will never die value investing the way i regard it will never go out of style because value investing the way i conceive it is is always wanting to get more value than you pay for when you buy a stock and that approach will never go out of style some people think that value investing is you chase companies which have a lot of cash and they're a lousy business or something but i don't define that as value investing i think all good investing is value investing it's just that some people look for values in strong companies and some look for values in weak companies but every value investor tries to get more value than he pays for what is interesting is that in wealth management a lot of people think that if they have a hundred stocks they're investing more professionally than they are if they have four or five i regard this as insanity absolute insanity i find it much easier to find four or five investments where i have a pretty reasonable chance of being right that they're way above average i think it's much easier to find five than it is to find a hundred i think the people who argue for all this diversification by the way i call it divorcification which i copied from somebody and i'm way more comfortable owning two or three stocks which i think i know something about and where i think i have an advantage because the true concept of value investing is very simple you simply pay a price that is below the value of a stock aka value investing is all about finding bargains with the price that you pay what people don't understand is you can still find a bargain on a growth stock tesla was a bargain four years ago it was a cheap price even though it's a growth company among is saying value investing is not just finding cigar but businesses with a low pe and a low price to book the simple concept of value investing is paying a price below the worth of the business this investing style will never die and it's a lot harder to find these bargains on hundreds of different stocks than it is compared to just three or four stocks that you truly understand and this is why manga hates diversification because if you do it too much the odds are you haven't put enough research into each individual stock that's why he calls it diversification and you see that with the portfolio that manga holds with the manga family trust this trust only holds three stocks berkshire hathaway costco and lailu's fund in china so that's the thing i like about manga he keeps things short and sweet and he puts his money where his mouth is and i think that we can all agree that the market has fundamentally changed with the rise of technology you look at every stock every business and pretty much all of them are highly technology based but the question becomes has this rise of technology impacted the way we should view stocks and stock prices do you believe the market is going through a long-term value slump similar to 1999 or do you believe technology has caused a permanent change in how companies should be valued well i don't know how permanent it's going to be but it certainly caused a change and of course it's hard to know what the future holds in a complex system where you can't predict a lot of things and generally what people do is they have financial reserves so they have some options if trouble comes and they adapt the way jerry has to require downsizings or required upsizings manga is saying that no one knows for sure how technology will impact the market over the long term there's too many contrasting variables the only thing that you can control is your own strategy and as he mentioned one thing that is important is having the cash on the sidelines as a form of safety for if the bubble pops but you also need your portfolio exposed to stocks as well because this bull market could continue and nobody knows when it will pop yes there are signs that are pointing to a potential bubble forming with this momentum trading the rise of specs the high prices of companies that aren't even making a profit but no one knows the exact time that a pop could occur
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