저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 시프는 2022년 고인플레가 지속되며 연준의 긴축은 실질적 효과 없이 스태그플레이션이 올 것이라고 주장한다. 인플레이션과 연준 정책: 연준은 금리를 0에서 연말 1%, 내년 2% 수준으로 올리겠다고 하지만 여전히 경기 부양적이다. 연준은 예산적자 때문에 결국 양적완화를 더 할 수밖에 없어 대차대조표는 줄지 않고 늘어난다고 본다. 무역적자와 유가: 작년 상품무역적자가 사상 처음 1조 달러를 넘었고, 12월 적자는 1000억 달러를 넘는 기록을 세웠다. 유가는 배럴당 92~93달러이며 올해 100달러를 넘을 것으로 본다. 기업 가격전가: 기업은 원가 상승분을 소비자에게 넘겨야 하며, 수요 감소를 감안해 실제로는 원가 상승분보다 더 많이 올릴 것이라고 본다. 작년에 기업들이 가격을 충분히 올리지 못했고 클로록스 실적 쇼크 등을 예로 든다. 2022년 CPI는 작년 7%에서 7~10%로 더 오를 가능성이 크다고 본다. 임금은 물가만큼 오르지 않아 소비자가 자동차, 부동산 등 구매를 줄이고 있다. 투자 전략: 가격결정력이 있고 필수재를 파는 기업(유틸리티, 에너지, 필수소비재)을 선호한다. 스트리밍, 광고 의존 플랫폼(페이스북 예시)은 소비 위축으로 타격이 클 것이라고 본다. 리스크: 1930년대 같은 대폭락은 아닐 수 있으나 금본위제가 없어 시장은 여전히 크게 폭락할 수 있다고 경고한다. 출연자 전망: 2022년 스태그플레이션과 주식 시장 조정을 예상하며 가격전가 불가능한 기업을 경계한다.
다듬은 글
people still don't understand is that this high inflation environment is here to stay because there's absolutely nothing the fed is capable of doing about it in fact everything the fed does is going to throw gasoline on the inflation fire so fed monetary policy is going to exacerbate the inflation that we're dealing with i mean even though they're talking about fighting inflation they're not really going to fight it they're going to keep stoking the flames just they're gonna you know be less aggressive what they're talking about doing is raising interest rates from zero where they are now up to maybe one percent by the end of this year and maybe up to two percent by the end of next year but these are still highly stimulative rates of interest it was in 2002 that the fed slashed rates to one percent to stimulate the economy after you know the nasdaq bubble burst and after we had the terrorist attacks in 9 11 and we had we started you know the war on terror and all that stuff happened we had a recession and so greenspan lowered rates to one to stimulate the economy now powell's saying well we're gonna raise rates to one to sedate the economy i mean it's still low and the fed is still printing money and the problem is the budget deficits have exploded we're talking about maybe three trillion dollars a year now is what our annual budget deficit is the only way to finance that is for the fed to do more qe so even though it's talking about shrinking the balance sheet it's not really going to happen the balance sheet is going to keep expanding but not only do we have this huge budget deficit we have record trade deficits last year we had the first ever merchandise trade deficit to exceed one trillion dollars in a single year and in the month of december we hit a new record high we had over a 100 billion dollar deficit in december and these deficits are going to skyrocket look at the price of oil now 92 93 a barrel heading well above 100 a barrel this year we're at net importing all that a lot of oil that further runs up the trade deficit so there's no way to finance this the fed is going to be forced to print even more money so while it's pretending it's going to take the punch bowl away it's going to continue to spike it but it's not going to be enough to sustain the asset bubbles so the change in monetary policy is a significant enough shift to prick the bubble in tech stocks and momentum stocks but it's not big enough to slow down inflation so we're going to have stagflation we're going to have a weakening economy rising inflation and that is a very different investment landscape than the one investors have been used to over the past 10 20 years the manufacturers are going to have to pass on those higher costs to their customers because they have to operate at a profit so at a minimum they have to pass on the costs but what they end up doing is actually passing on more than the cost because you have to find a new equilibrium because every time the company raises prices it does lose some buyers on the margin because we're all sensitive to price i mean if we weren't sensitive the companies would just jack the prices even higher the reason that there's a lid on prices is because companies are looking for the optimal price where they can sell the most amount of stuff and make the most amount of money and so as you raise prices you start losing some of your customers so there's a sweet spot where you can have the maximum amount of profit well that all changes when your costs go up so when their costs go up they have to find a new equilibrium where they can maximize their profits but what happens are is as you start raising your prices you start losing some customers and so now you you know you have fewer customers to try to average out all your fixed costs so the new equilibrium price where you can maximize your profits ends up being even higher than just the increase of costs because you have to make up for the loss of customers so what happens in an inflationary environment is businesses keep selling fewer and fewer products at higher and higher prices and those customers that can afford the higher prices keep buying and those that can't well they go without the products last year though businesses didn't raise prices enough that was the problem because you had the federal chairman and all the economists were telling everybody oh don't worry about these rising costs this is all transitory right and so the business owners believed the economists they absorbed these price hikes in their own costs because they didn't want to just raise their prices if it was just you know a one-off thing if it was just higher costs for a few months they probably figured you know what we'll just eat that you know it's not worth raising prices losing out to our competitors annoying our customers you know we'll just ride it out because it's you know it's temporary but as we got to the end of the year and now these companies look back like look at we just got the earnings on friday for clorox and clorox got killed like new down 10 52 week low why to get beat up well they missed why they missed because their costs were up a lot and obviously they didn't raise their prices nearly enough to cover the increase in costs and so i think a lot of these businesses that were kind of conned into this false sense of complacency on what was happening now they have a lot of catching up to do not only do they have to get ahead of the curve for 2022 and start factoring in rising costs for 2022 but they got to catch up for all the lost ground from 2021 so they have to raise prices a lot and that's one of the reasons i've been saying that rather than 2022 you know cpi you know number coming down from the seven percent we got last year 2022 is probably going to be higher we're going to go maybe from 7 to 10 first of all wages are rising the problem is they're not rising as much as prices so people are running out of ammo but some people are not buying stuff look what's happened recently to car sales i mean car prices have gone way up and so car sales are coming down i mean people are buying fewer cars you know it's happened in the real estate market i mean the prices went way up and so fewer people can afford to buy them so they're still trading but you know not as many people can afford to buy now certain things like food i mean people are going to keep spending money on food but they change what they buy right they don't buy as much steak they buy more you know hamburger right so they're not eating as well as they would like to because they can't afford some of the stuff that they used to be able to afford they have to trade down it's going to happen across the board people are going to buy cheaper stuff or less things and it's probably already happening it's just going to happen more uh as the inflation gets worse you want to skew your portfolio to stuff that people have to buy not stuff that they buy because they want to right so people have to buy certain products right and so you've got much more pricing power if the consumer has to buy what you're selling versus a discretionary item that you know if he has any money left over you know he'll buy that but you know but first he has to take care of what he needs before he can start buying you know what he wants and so yeah and if you look at a lot of the stocks that we own those are the companies a lot of these consumer companies or utilities you got to pay your electric bill you don't want to be in the dark i mean you can use less electricity you can you know watch how many lights you leave on you can adjust your thermostat but you're going to buy electricity no matter what you're not going to you know live in the dark and use candles so these companies are still going to sell energy right your gasoline people are still going to drive cars they may not drive as often but they're still going to drive maybe they're not going to take a long vacation or maybe they'll carpool but you're still going to buy gas so these oil companies are still going to make money but you know you buy these things that you know people are going to keep buying and you can raise your prices your costs go up you raise your prices and you can stay ahead and you can pay dividends and absolutely you have to be in companies that have a lot of pricing power now you know there are a lot of these companies that have products it's highly competitive like look at all these streaming stocks one of the places people can easily cut back is just look how many streaming services are you gonna buy right maybe you'll look back and i've got six or seven of them yeah you're gonna cut back on three or four of them or maybe i'm gonna take a streaming service and i'm gonna use it for a week or two i'm gonna watch what i wanna watch and i'm gonna you know unsubscribe from that one and i'll have one at a time until i you know watch the shows i want to watch but people are competing for the same group of customers and these customers are dealing with higher food prices higher gas prices higher rent so they got to cut back where they can cut back and i think too a lot of these companies that give away their products right like the facebooks right you don't pay money to have a facebook account but the problem is facebook makes money from the advertisers and if the advertisers aren't selling as much of their stuff because the people on facebook can't afford to buy it well now the advertisers can't afford to advertise on facebook anymore facebook's earnings go away even though they're giving away their product the fact that their customers don't have the discretionary income their real product which is the advertising they can't sell that so there's a lot of these businesses that are gonna be a lot of trouble when everybody is tightening their belts i don't think we're going to have another crash like the 30s but that doesn't mean you don't have to worry because during the 1930s we were on the gold standard we don't have that benefit anymore the market can still crash as much as it did in the 30s
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