저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인 가치평가 및 단기·장기 가격 전망 영상. 단기: 비트코인이 소셜 네트워크처럼 참여도(사용자 수)가 늘수록 가치가 커지는 구조이며, 2018년 중반까지 최소 6,000달러 도달을 전망. 메칼프의 법칙(네트워크 가치는 사용자 수의 제곱에 비례)을 적용한 모델로 설명하며, 과거 4년간 비트코인 가격 움직임의 94%를 이 방정식이 설명한다고 주장. 장기: 비트코인을 디지털 시대의 금(디지털 금)으로 보고, 금 시장(약 9조 달러)의 5%만 흡수해도 개당 최소 25,000달러, 10만~20만 달러도 가능하다고 주장. 5% 가정은 보수적이라고 설명. 금 가격은 명목 GDP 성장률만큼 오르고 통화량 증가율은 과거보다 낮다고 가정. 유동성 리스크: 비트코인은 기관보다 채굴자·열성 투자자가 보유해 실질 유동성이 작아 유동성 급등으로 목표가를 크게 넘을 수 있다고 언급(약 75,000달러 가능성 언급하나 공식 보증 아님). 기술/가치 구조: 비트코인은 분산 장부 기반 암호화 데이터베이스이며, 노드 51% 합의가 필요해 위조가 매우 어렵다는 점을 강조. 위조 코인 1개 생성 비용은 약 300억 달러 수준으로 추정. 비교: 금 변동성도 금태환 중단 직후 4년간 현재 비트코인 변동성과 비슷했다고 언급. 개인적으로는 금 대신 비트코인으로 갈아탈 것이라는 견해 표명. 출연자 전망: 장기 상승(25,000달러 이상) 및 단기 6,000달러 이상 도달 전망.
다듬은 글
I'm here with Sarah to talk about why we believe bitcoin can reach $25,000 in five years so you actually have a few research notes about this yes and your can you talk about your short-term model first where do you see Bitcoin going and what valuation method are you using yeah in the short term we think Bitcoin has really followed very closely the idea of acting like a social network meaning the more and more engagement there is the greater the value Rises and in the short term we think Bitcoin will reach at least six thousand by mid 2018 and you're using Metcalfe's law can you explain that yeah so Metcalfe's a professor he actually came up with a theorem based on George Gilder which is the value of a network is to square the number of users and so if you built a very simple model valuing Bitcoin as the square function number of users times the average transaction value 94% of the Bitcoin mover the past four years is explained by that equation just to use an example so this explains like the network effect like one fax machine is worthless because there's nobody who can fax but once all of your friends have fax machines it becomes very valuable so how has this been effective in valuating things in the past that have a strong Network but weren't producing any money yes so three is use cases are businesses where Metcalfe's law really explained the growth the the market value is Facebook Alibaba and Google and these are all examples where the number of users like if you double the number of users you're more than doubling the utility value it's a little bit like the commercial in the 70s you know Prell when you tell your friends and they tell their friends and so on and so your long-term valuation model use it you're you looking at it come Bitcoin as a substitute for gold as an alternative currency yes that's right and it's really a we're what we're trying to do is recognize that the the creation of value in the future is in the digital world I mean all future great businesses are going to be digital and with that concept Bitcoin represents a store of value because it's an encrypted personal encrypted database that for seven years hasn't been hacked I mean that is a sway to store value and if personal information is our gold bitcoin is our digital gold so we think that the gold market which is nine trillion and for a generation of investors gold was their store value I think this next generation young people view Bitcoin as their store value and if it captures five percent of the gold market it's worth at least twenty five thousand dollars per unit and that's the big number that you're the twenty five thousand dollars per unit is it hinges on the five percent of the money going into gold going into Bitcoin so how do you come up with the five percent we we explain this in our research it's a very it's actually the most conservative collection of elements to get to the five percent because number one we assume that gold only appreciates essentially at nominal GDP so there's no inflation and we assume that money supply grows at slower rates than it has historically and then the five percent number really reflects the assumption that investors will allocate in their blended portfolio only five percent to alternative currencies today that allocation is much greater it's closer to ten or fifteen and some portfolios so but at a five percent allocation that would value Bitcoin at twenty five thousand you can easily get to a hundred thousand two hundred thousand numbers is Bitcoin special or is this just about all crypto currencies it's both I mean I think what's unique is Bitcoin is the dominant coin or token in a growing universe I mean there's 630 tokens out there now but I what we found in our research is that the more coins that are being issued the more are using Bitcoin as their master ledger which means bitcoins value is actually growing as there's more coins and you mentioned to me earlier that if some big investors get interested in Bitcoin that the price could skyrocket really quickly yeah that's right it's what's interesting is Bitcoin is uncorrelated to other asset classes right now and I think it really speaks to the fact that it's not institutionally held it's it's really held by miners and enthusiasts most of them are what they call hot lers you know they're not sellers of the coin so the liquidity of Bitcoin is deceptively small so if you can imagine you know there was recently a very well known portfolio manager starting a five hundred dollar hedge fund if he employs typical leverage he's buying two and a half million dollars of Bitcoin there isn't she won't have billion dollars a Bitcoin available to purchase so I think you could easily see a liquidity based move in Bitcoin that's much beyond our target prices like how much beyond well that's getting into you know a realm of nothing I could officially endorse but you know when you think about liquidity spikes like what happened remember oil went to $300 on a liquidity spike so it probably would be easy to imagine that Bitcoin could be you know seventy-five thousand something like that and can you help me understand like what bitcoin is is it a currency is it an asset why do we compare it to gold like why is that a fair comparison and what is gold you get a commodity or currency yeah it's it's it's a it's a great question because I think as a primer someone has to finally accept what bitcoin represents and what it is is at the core it is just a very well-designed database one that because of the way the encryption is built into it is very hard to crack so unlike typical databases where the encryption key is held by a central entity Bitcoin has this thing called miners and nodes that each of the nodes keeps a copy of the database and therefore you need 51% of the nodes to agree on a transaction to say it's valid otherwise it'll say it's a spoof transaction which means the bigger the database grows and the more - or are the harder it is to crack so Bitcoin is encryption but that but the encryption strength grows as there's more miners and today it's estimated that it would cost about thirty 1 billion dollars to create one fake coin Wow so it's easier to break into a central bank like Swift in Nigeria and steal 50 million dollars from there than it is to try to get one fake Bitcoin and do you think it's fair I know it's it's very hard to understand the valuation of something like a Bitcoin do you think it's fair to look at the blockchain that it represents and say let's look at the value of this and the Bitcoin is what keeps this going and keeps it secure and so that's where the value comes from yeah actually that's a it's a really important point that by design Bitcoin was designed to be what they call a fad protocol which means the protocol layer which is the encryption is trying to reward users of it and they and it's it's rewarded through paying minor fees it's a little bit like imagine if remember Facebook's value is its users but all of the upside in owning Facebook was the investors Bitcoin said okay look let's reward Facebook users that the more there are the more money you get that's how bitcoins designed and the more externalities you create by participating in Facebook the more you'll get paid basically that's right and also because of the nature of Bitcoin it means the applications that you build on top of it aren't as valuable because if you try to build a banking system a Bitcoin well it has better encryption and then an application so Bitcoin itself will always have more value than the applications built for it so this is a hundred grams of gold which one at the time that I got it was worth about the same as a Bitcoin which you think is a better store of value do you think that I should switch my bitcoins for gold or my gold for bitcoins there's a whole generation of young people including my daughter who's a CS major that would say they don't understand why gold at all represents a store value and it's important to keep mine you know for many years Gold's price never even moved when it was on the when the dollar was on the gold standard so I would say I would easily change that for a Bitcoin great and when gold started trading freely you point out in one of your notes that the volatility looked just like Bitcoin and then eventually it settled down that's right you know what people talk about bitcoins volatility today they're forgetting that when we went off the dollar stand the gold standard on the dollar Gold's volatility for four years was about the same as bitcoins volatility today great thank you so much yeah thanks for having me
Comments 0