저자: The David Lin Report Clips · 외국인
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원문은 비트코인 8만 달러 이탈과 구리 6.40 지지선 붕괴를 연말 매도 연쇄의 신호로 해석하는 발언을 담고 있다. 화자는 암호화폐와 구리가 주식시장에 선행하는 지표라고 설명하며, 시가총액 대 GDP 비율이 100년 만의 최고치 부근이라고 언급한다. 또한 에너지 위기 속 일부 중앙은행의 금리 인상, WTI 유가 약 90달러 수준, 재무부 채권 대비 금 비율의 40년 만의 고점 등을 근거로 제시한다. 화자는 연준이 12월 금리 인상 확률을 약 75%로 보고 있다고 전하며, 연준에 맞서지 말라는 교훈을 강조한다. 다만 나스닥과 구리가 200일 이동평균선으로 복귀했다는 점도 함께 언급한다. 이 발언은 개인 전망이며 투자 권유가 아니다.
다듬은 글
OK. This is an important thing that you wrote about in X, and you also mentioned it in your weekly reports. Cascade launched, Bitcoin $80,000, Copper 6.4 breaks levels. Bitcoin’s failure to hold above 80,000 and copper’s fall below key support levels around 6.40 per pound following the US midterm elections could signal a potential cascade of sell-offs by the end of the year.
A leading indicator—cryptocurrencies breaking this key level, set during the 2025 paradigm shift, could be a warning. My analysis highlights the same graphic relationship between copper and the stock market. You have been predicting a correction in the stock market for quite some time . We received it this week.
These are not yet double-digit numbers, but it is not often that we see a 5% correction in the S&P in one day, and the Nasdaq had what seems to be its worst drop since COVID. Now, let's get back to your post. What exactly is cascading? So, let's start with cryptocurrencies. My favorite leading indicator, which you mentioned on the show I hosted with Scott Melker on Macro Mondays.
We've been driving it with him for almost five years. It was a long story. I was very bullish on Bitcoin's growth. I love Bitcoin. It was a great leading indicator. Get off this horse a little early in 2024. In 2025, when it rose above 100,000, I said it would reset to zero and fall to 10,000. I still haven't retracted that, but that's a key point.
This was a great leading indicator during the growth. He gave us a great alpha. And then what did he do? Last year, he passed the alpha baton to gold. Gold just had its best year ever, you know, in terms of volatility, sorry, velocity in a disinflationary environment. And thank you, Mr. Trump, for that.
You know, he was completely unstoppable. Poof, and everything changed. The situation is escalating, and here we have circumstances where I'm looking at potential reasons: people are saying to buy gold because of the $40 trillion in US debt. Yes, it is unstoppable. This is terrible. I understand, there is no reason to stop until politicians face the crisis.
The main reason for this may be a stock market correction, but it is insignificant compared to a market capitalization of about $82 trillion, which may have just peaked. It is now $81 trillion. This year, the maximum was $83 trillion. And we also look at the ratio of market capitalization to GDP. So, we know that this is the maximum in 100 years.
So these processes are just beginning to take effect. We saw gold reach an all-time high . We have seen precious metals rise significantly. We are seeing this volatility and energy crisis. And what happened? Many central banks around the world have begun raising rates amid the energy crisis. This is almost guaranteed to be a temporary phenomenon.
I'm just looking at the price of WTI oil right now. It is $90 per barrel. It has never closed above 100. It spent several months exceeding twice the cost of production in our countries, which are the world's top oil producers. These are the USA and Canada. Surpluses are approaching 9 million barrels per day.
Last year, when oil peaked in 2022, it was closer to 4–5 million barrels per day. Do you see what's happening here? It looks like gold may be reaching its bottom. Sorry, not gold, it is likely peaking relative to Treasury bonds, whose index is at a four-decade high. This is just beginning. And most importantly, as I mentioned, David, we are all puppets of the stock market.
And you see a little bit of that. We only had one day. This is nonsense. Nonsense in the market. Just a small correction. The Nasdaq has returned to its 200 -day moving average. Copper has returned to its 200-day moving average. But remember what time of year it is now. This is November. I remember counting the profits and losses and sitting at a holiday dinner with my family, thinking, "Oh my God, I was just blown away by the market this week." Or: "I had a really good week." This is a time for volatility.
And we just experienced a paradigm shift and a change of power in the United States. I like how Mr. Trump is already blaming everything on the Democrats. One day of stock market correction is nothing. But I think that's exactly what happened. It took one day on October 10, 2025, to flip the switch in cryptocurrencies.
Just one day of liquidation. The market has been in a bearish trend since we bounced. Bitcoin is currently at 75,000. I still think it has a long way to go . Maybe it just happened this week. Maybe we just flipped a switch. And that's what I look at when evaluating every financial manager on the planet.
They knew that five, you know , was a gift at the 5% level. What now? What's happening, and the main takeaway that I like to remember: don't go against the Fed. The Fed still estimates it's about a three-quarters, you know, three- quarters chance that they'll raise rates in December. There is one force that will stop the stock market from falling.
We previously expected three rate hikes next year. I always look a year ahead. We now expect about a 1.9 increase next year . The main conclusion: don't go against the Fed . They are fighting inflation. They are struggling with this massive wealth creation. By the way, if you're even a Republican and you want to get reelected, and certainly Democrats, you know, you have to do something about all this accumulation of wealth, all these rich people making money, this inflation, energy and food, and there's one way to do it.
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