Mohamed El-Erian: Fed Rate Cuts Could Backfire in 2026

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자막 기준 채권시장 수급 부담이 커지는 상황을 경계. 데이터센터 등 발행이 연 1,500~1,750억 달러, 재정적자 GDP 6% 수준을 언급하며 장기금리 상승 가능성을 우려. 시나리오 확률은 중심 50%, 상·하방 각 25%로 제시하고 꼬리 위험 관리 강조. 연준 의장 후보로 케빈 워시가 지지율 상승한 점을 평가하며 그의 연준 개혁 관점에 긍정적 견해. AI 도입 속도는 점진적일 것으로 봄.

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01. Wall Street is cheering this weak jobs report because they think it forces the Fed to keep cutting. Elaran is basically warning that's how you sleepwalk into a policy mistake. At the end, you'll hear the one signal he's watching that could tell you before the Fed admits it that the good news narrative has broken.

02. So, I I certainly think that we will see it play out over a number of years. There is a possibility, not a [snorts] probability, a possibility that it could be accelerated, but that requires corporate America to really increase the adoption rate. Are are you using it? And which model are you using? Do you have a favorite one?

03. So, I use it all the time. Okay. I use Gemini. Um, I think it's incredible what it does. Like, what do you use it for? I'm just curious. I mean, I use it when I'm doing research for interviews, for example. I've been using Gemini also. So what do you how do you use it? So I use it for that. Yeah. I use it for checking what I write.

04. I use it for looking at slides I use when I teach and and ask the simple question, how do I make this more engaging? I use it for a whole range of things and it has really increased my productivity. It also actually also increases the time I spend on it because I get very intrigued by certain things.

05. But it's incredibly powerful. I generate images and you'll see if you look at my weekly you'll see the image generated and underneath I put generated by AI and I simply say when I read a long report just to make sure I don't miss anything I say summarize the main points. So I use it all the time and I find Gemini 3.0 incredibly powerful.

06. Yeah I like I say I've been using that one too. So okay so that's the one side of it. Let's talk a little bit more about Treasury supply, the bond market, because we've already seen little glimmers of that, right? At a time when the Fed is cutting, very unusually, 10 year and 30-year yields are going up.

07. So, is that a sign of things to come next year that we could see more of that phenomenon in the bond market, especially with more Treasury supply coming to market? So, there's tremendous supply from the public sector and from the private sector. data centers now alone are going at a rate of 150 to 175 billion a year in terms of debt issuance that that is big then you have a 6% of GDP deficit that's big for this part of the cycle what I worry about is at some stage the bond market's going to say you know what we're not pricing in risk the way we should be pricing in risk that is part of the downside scenario we talked about is that the bond markets appet ite which has been incredibly strong somehow becomes less so

08. and how prob where do you put that probability so I have and that's not going to satisfy you I have a 50% probability for the central scenario and about 25% for each side okay okay and the big message of this whether you're a policy maker whether you are a market participant whether you are a CEO don't fall in love with your central scenario just recognize that it's a multimodal distribution ution and you've got to pay attention to the tales and you've got to ask yourself which tale can I navigate better.

09. Yeah, I mean that's a good lesson over of the past few years. Don't get too wedded to that central scenario. Um speaking of central scenarios and how things shift over time. We've got new betting odds on who's going to be the next Fed chair, right? Um that Kevin Worsh has really gained in the in the oddsm market here.

10. Um you and I have talked before about who the next leader could be. Um Kevin Worsh a good choice better than Kevin Hasset. What do you think? So Kevin has gone from below 10%. Today I looked on poly market just before I came in he was at 47 worse. That is sorry. Yes. And and Kevin Hass has it is down to 41.

11. So that's a complete transformation. Now there's some circularity in this because it moved on President Trump's statements and of course it then attracted people um to bed. Look, um, I have a very a better view of what Kevin Walsh would do as Fed chair than I do of Kevin Hassard. Why? Because Kevin Walsh has gone beyond the interest rate issue.

12. He has written about balance sheets. He has written about reforms to the Fed. He understands that a Fed that has got its analysis wrong, its predictions wrong. A Fed that has governance issue needs reform. So I I have a I'm comfortable with what he favors in terms of f of of fed reforms and we know much more actually about what he would look like as a chair than we know what Kevin Hass is going to look like as a chair.

13. As an aside, how nuts is it that we're talking about the betting markets and who they think the next Fed chair is going to be? I mean, do you think that that like that whole phenomenon is that useful for markets? Is it useful for society? It's not useful for this. I mean, it's totally nuts for this.

14. It's fun. It's fun to talk about because it's the decision of a single person. It's very different from when you're trying to predict millions of people voting. That's very, very different. Um, but having said that, it's the delta that's interesting because the delta has moved on comments from President Trump.

15. Yeah. The one person who's making that decision. Correct. Muhammad, thanks so much for coming in. It's good to see you. Thanks for having me. Appreciate it.