저자: Scott · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 이 영상은 특정 종목·자산의 단기 가격 예측이 아니라, Ray Dalio의 투자 원칙(비상자금 확보, 자산 분산, 올웨더 포트폴리오, 시장 사이클 이해)을 소개하는 교육 콘텐츠다. [Ray Dalio 소개] Bridgewater Associates 창업자이자 세계 최대 헤지펀드 운용자로 소개됨. 1975년 뉴욕 아파트에서 설립, 2017년까지 헤지펀드 중 역대 최대 누적 수익을 기록했다고 언급. 순자산은 약 180억 달러(포브스 기준)로 소개. [핵심 원칙 1: 목표 저축과 자기 점검] 목표 저축액을 정하고 진행 상황을 지속적으로 측정해야 한다고 강조. Dalio는 처음에 생활비 6개월치, 이후 몇 년치 생활비를 목표로 삼았다고 함. 월 생활비(주거비·공과금 등)를 계산해 필요한 금액을 산출하라고 권함. [핵심 원칙 2: 저축만으로는 부족, 투자 필요] 은행 예금 금리가 매우 낮아 0.5~1% 수준이므로, 물가상승률(2.5~3%)과 세금을 감안해 연 5~6% 이상을 목표로 자산에 투자해야 한다고 주장. 현금성 자산을 주식·채권·부동산 등 다양한 자산으로 분산하라고 권고. [올웨더 포트폴리오 구성 (Dalio 방식 단순화)] 국내 주식 30%, 장기채 40%, 중기채 15%, 금 7.5%, 기타 원자재 7.5%로 설명. 목표는 경기 상승·하락 등 모든 경제 환경에서 양호한 수익과 하락 방어. 영상 속 ETF 예시(VGS, VAS, GGOV, CRED, 원자재·금 ETF 등)는 30분 정도 조사한 예시이며 추천이 아니라고 명시. [시장 사이클 이해] 2008년 금융위기 이후 미국 증시가 회복해 역사상 가장 긴 상승장을 기록했고, 이후 10년간 S&P500이 130% 상승했다고 언급. 시장이 많이 오르면 좋은 시장으로, 많이 떨어지면 나쁜 시장으로 판단하는 것이 가장 큰 실수라고 지적. Buffett 인용: 남들이 팔 때 사고 남들이 살 때 파는 것이 핵심. 공포 속에서도 용기 있게 매수하라는 메시지. [언급 종목·자산 방향] 특정 개별 종목 추천 없음. S&P500 과거 상승(10년간 130%)은 과거 설명이며 미래 방향 예측 아님. 미국 주식·채권 등에 대한 구체적 가격 전망 발언 없음. [리스크·조건] 영상은 예시이며 투자 권유가 아니라고 명시. 추가 조사 필요 강조. 올웨더 구성 비율은 Dalio가 실제 쓰는 것과 다소 차이가 있고 파생상품 등은 생략된 단순화임. [출연자 전망] Scott 본인은 장기 분산투자와 시장 사이클 이해를 강조할 뿐, 단기 시장 방향에 대한 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
welcome investorholics and casual viewers this is a continuation in the series of um investing with the masters so today i thought we'd have a look at ray dalio and his formula for success and this is some background on his thoughts about getting started in the share market so ray dalio is a renowned investor and founder of the world's largest hedge fund the bridge of water associates it's been around since the 70s 1975 exactly and today uh his net worth is around 18 billion dollars according to forbes anyway for what it's worth and as i said he founded the um individual associates in his apartment in new york in 1975.
so from its founding through to 19 2017 ridgewood returned the largest cumulative net worth for a hedge fund ever according to the data by lch investments so learning how to invest you know in general terms can seem like a daunting task so you know we want to be putting our money to work while we sleep and that's sort of the key step to gaining financial independence and you know having a good retirement or actually being able to build that flexibility into your life to only work when you want to work so what we're trying to do is develop some smart investment strategies that can be looked at um taken you know taking inspiration from ray and sort of distilled into sort of three sort of little quick um sort of steps um so hopefully you guys get some value out of this even if there's only one thing you learn it's definitely well worth hanging around and watching to the end we'll just try to be as quick as we can and get through it well hello there investor helix this is scott crack sky value investing will be giving you up to date in investing news and content so you can navigate the markets wherever you are my mission is to give you the knowledge and confidence to take control of your own personal finances expand your investment horizons and crack your financial sky so in a nutshell i think the most important thing that ray talks about is having a savings goal and also questioning yourself so one thing you need to do is you have your goal and then also um you know when he's talking about questioning yourself i'd say is measuring so keep coming back to it and sort of see how you go seeing how you go what's your progress i should say so when the story as a story goes when ray started working he was aiming to have six months of savings and that his mind gave him the freedom and security and that would sort of um yeah um helping sort of along the the next step and then his next step was to save enough for a couple years of freedom and security and that sort of um helped him sort of you know in his own mind he had the protection for his family then uh so you gotta sit down and calculate that number so you have to understand your monthly living costs you know um so what's the cost to run your house and what all your bills and then that can help you calculate those figures so you know if if you had to um if you couldn't work i should say then you know this number is the number that will keep you out of trouble for six months or two years or whatever it happens to be um it gives you the freedom and security in your life and you know once you know those numbers and you and you've achieved those things it takes a little worry out of your life you can live a bit a bit more stress free i should say you know so how many months and how many years of freedom and safety do you need or do you want and they're the things you should be should be thinking about so you know you always need to make sure that you have enough savings you know or even more savings than you think you need i mean the biggest thing that i sort of that i didn't realize or it took me a while to realize is that savings for saving sake actually means nothing and what you've got to understand is what the next the next step is what do you do with that money so how do you invest it or you know because you can't just leave it sitting in the bank because the the rates in the bank are so low now so you know the average savings account guy must be only getting you know a half of a cent or one percent if you're lucky so you need to invest your money into diverse 5.5 assets that increase in value faster than inflation so you know if inflation's two and a half three percent you need to be um generating you know five or six percent um to sort of outpace inflation and take account for um tax as well because we all get taxed so uh ray sort of advocates the all-weather type of fund so he's looking at a portfolio that has 30 stocks um 40 long-term bonds 15 intermediate bonds um seven and a half percent gold and um seven uh seven hundred percent other commodities so you know know how to diversify into non-cash assets like stocks bonds and real estate and this is what sort of delia sort of says a typical portfolio might be split 50 between bonds and 50 stocks but ray urges diversification um not like i sort of described down below it's a bit bit wider than that so you sort of look at risk as well so i mean i'm not sure if you guys have read um um tony robbins book um money master the game but he kind of interviews a lot of these um guys and sort of comes up and um ray in particular comes up with his his um all-weather portfolio and you can also track what what ray's doing with his all-weather portfolio um so you guys can actually see how he's actually investing in you know semi-real time you're looking at probably three months behind what he does but i can put that in the next slide as well so you can sort of see where he's at at the moment to give you guys a bit better understanding of what he actually does how he works at all so the mix is intended to do well under any conditions so the the um outline just below there so whether the market is falling or or rising so what what the pretty much the bonds are there to do are to smooth out the downs and you've got still got the stocks too in in outward market so in a good market your bonds are still there to generate returns but the the bond the large bond component are there to protect you against the downside yeah so all weather so you're trying to do have good returns in all economic conditions you know whether the economy is growing or the economy shrinking you know whether it's recession this year or you know it's a bull market the year after this this portfolio is designed to to you know do well and minimize downside but still take some of the outside as well representation what we were talking about on the previous slide we can see on the left-hand side this is effectively the breakup of ray's all-weather portfolio it's not exactly what he uses but for simplification this is what he uses and he uses derivatives and other bits and pieces that we shouldn't go any because we're not professionals so he'll put 30 into the domestic market i've got long-term bonds as you can see 40 percent international sorry intermediate term bonds so sort of five to ten year type instruments 15 and you've got general commodities and gold making up the remainder on the right hand side here i've just sort of given you a quick um breakdown of what you can do what's possible um with you know six different etfs to effectively try to replicate what ray has done there so you can sort of set yourself up in all weather portfolio and just add to it on a monthly basis you know 500 every month or whatever you guys want to do you could set something like this up uh i didn't spend a lot of time on researching these to find the 100 best etfs to do this but i think this selection here of six isn't too bad so i've kind of chucked in vgs which is the vanguard msci international shares index so that's a grabble so that'll get you some of the best international companies um i've put in 15 for that one then i've done vgs which is the vanguard australia share index so focusing on domestic markets uh 15 for that so that's your 30 percent for domestic so effectively equities exposure um then we can see uh ggov so this is probably one of the better ones i could see for long term so looking for 20 plus sort of bonds this one ggov is the beta shares global government bond plus 20 year etf that one's currency hedge so you don't get the fluctuate fluctuations in the australian dollar i mean that's kind of taken out of the picture probably not a bad one to use um like i said i didn't spend a great deal of time and that was kind of one that popped out the earliest i suppose i didn't have to spend too much time looking at it then we've got cred which is the bhs australian investment grade corporate bond so that one you know you could chuck that in as your 15 um for your intermediate type bonds so that'll give you your five to ten year range uh investment horizon for those bonds and then we had um commodities uh which is a light blue one there seven percent um i just put pretty much the reason i did seven and eight percent there the only reason this difference is because i just look messy trying to do half a percent so i just sort of rounded them so dalio tends to put more into gold or he's focusing more on gold right now so that's why i've kind of sort of rounded that up to eight so commodities pretty much i think beta shares so qcb beta shares commodities basket etf this is currency hedges it's synthetic so it's really just derivatives so buyers known as derivatives which i typically don't like but this is kind of the only etf from the australian market i could find that actually does a general commodities basket so that's like oil and you know everything else chucked into one etf so that's kind of why i put it in there and then also you say you got you for your gold allocation i chose gld which is the ets physical gold i think probably this one's not too bad or you could also look at qau which is the um beta shares um gold and that's hedged i think to the australian dollar from memory but this um these six etfs uh you know pretty give you a pretty good overview of what you can do and when you're constructing something like this i think it would probably perform pretty well over time but like i say that i spent a half an hour just quickly researching you know as a starting point to show you guys what what you can do and how you can construct this or whether portfolio in australia and that's kind of what i come up with but as as we always do we always need to make sure we're doing further research on everything that we do so this is just an example not a recommendation of any kind so learn the markets long-term cycles so this is one of the things that ray is always talking about so to understand the market cycles as seen under the financial crisis in 2018 is important the us markets eventually recovered from the recession and entered the longest bull run in modern financial history beating the bull run um after world war ii and this is relation to the american stock market uh so in the ten years following the collapse of lima brothers the s p 500 increased 130 percent so a hypothetical portfolio of six pence socks so the um portfolio 16 stocks and 40 bonds uh returned about eight percent over the um last 10 years while returns from interest and savings account stayed at record lows you know because of all the um money printing so money effectively is not worth that much anymore so you need to have to have your savings out well it illustrates that you need to have your savings in other assets not just sitting in cash in the bank by understanding historical patterns investors can avoid missing out on great investment opportunities so cautious investors that don't um risk their money to buy stocks so after or the 2008 crash for instance so they miss out on a chance to earn big returns so like i say um in the following years the market went up 130 and that's the total market so you can imagine those companies um in that in that total market that went up much more than 130 percent so dalia reckons the biggest biggest mistake that people make is to judge that try to judge what will be good but what has been good in the past so if the market has gone up a lot they think that it's good it's a good market rather than you know it actually might be an expensive market and when it goes down a lot over uh you know last few years i think it's a it's a bad market you know and they and they don't um well they're kind of scared they're very wary of the market so you know it's definitely critical to understand the market cycles and not be scared of the market cycles so you know if you're investing you have to understand the cycles you know like warren buffett ray says that you that to know how to buy when everyone else wants to sell and how to sell when everybody else wants to buy is the key to great investing so when everyone's getting in you're getting out or you're trimming or whatever you're reducing your position so you know it goes back to the you know one of the old colloquial sayings or one of the old you know the sayings that everyone loves is you know when um blood is in the street you should be buying and when there's you know when when everybody else's blood is in the street you should be buying so you know in the down times that's when well that's when the um brave investors will actually make their their good um purchases and then also you know once they ride out the downs and and because the market always goes up again that's when they make their big money increase their fortunes are you interested in learning more about personal finance investing in the markets if you are then smash the like here on the left hand side and caress the subscribe button on the right hand side because correct the sky and value investing will be giving you up-to-date investing news and content so you can navigate the markets wherever you are expand your investment horizon and crack your financial sky thanks guys see you later
Comments 0