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we need to talk some real facts about Tesla and I'm talking hard facts I'm not just talking about saying the kind of BS on Twitter or YouTube that just gets Tesla Bulls going oh man I love hearing everything great about the company while you busted oh we gotta be realistic just like in relationships we have to address problems just like in politics we have to address hard questions just like in stocks we have to understand the Achilles heel and here's the bottom freaking line we know about Tesla that it is a company that has the most pricing power of all the other auto manufacturers we know that however because of a more transparent dealership less model their price reductions are much more visible in the face of consumers and therefore their stock tends to react a little bit more negatively to price reductions because there's an impression that their pricing power is waning which yes in aggregate pure margin Decline and pricing decline both of those combined together is a weakening of pricing power but relative to the entire Auto industry they have the strongest pricing power this is everybody's reducing prices Tesla still just has the greatest margins out of everybody else by far but there are real problems here with Tesla one of the real problems that we face is this nonsense about FSD take rates people are convinced that if full self-driving just has a free trial which I have also suggested in years past in months past have mentioned it many times every single Tesla should automatically come with a full self-driving trial for the first you know 30 60 90 days it doesn't cost anything just do that give people a trial unless you're not confident that people are going to love it and then people are going to be like yeah you know I don't want to try that you know okay maybe that is possible the reality is going from fifteen thousand dollars on FSD to twelve thousand dollars is stupid FSD at least a b tested should be reduced to five thousand dollars four thousand nine hundred dollars if you pay for it all right 500 per month for the first year so six hundred dollars if you finance it over a year or whatever which is fair because then people can see okay this is my payment with FSD but it's only the first year and then it'll drop up people would go for that I believe that you'd probably on new purchases have somewhere around a 75 take rate whereas I think this 12 to 15 000 level puts you somewhere either below 10 but certainly under 20 of a take rate it's too much money it takes this you know twenty nine thousand dollar car with federal tax credits and turns it into a forty two thousand dollar car no no no no no there's this this is not the right way to play it in my opinion I would rather see FSD take rate 5X when you 5x you're going to make net more money think about it 5x the sales at 5 grand is 25 000 10 more sales at twelve thousand dollars is what 1200 bucks more you see what I mean like we really want to get a substantial boost in the take rate because it's basically pure profit turn the freaking switch on and now you actually make the vehicles a lot more salable because the total cost of getting into Tesla and FSD is amazing now don't get me wrong I do think there's some premium value to FSD it is better than autopilot but for most Highway commuters honestly autopilot is good enough I've got my in-house attorney he drives he commutes on the highway mostly I think he's got maybe two miles to get to the highway here two miles to get to the highway here and then like 30 miles in between eventually he'll move out here but anyway you only need autopilot for that kind of commute you don't need full self-driving right so I think you really want to go to the next level of convincing people to get FSD because here's a scenario where at twelve thousand dollars you have people who go and at least a B test it right here's a scenario where you have people saying I don't know 12 000 bucks you know is it really worth it for the two and two or the occasional other time I'm driving around to the grocery store or whatever no but 4 900 bucks is that worth it come on baby voting 900 bucks yeah yeah all right all right bundle that in come on I'll take it now you know or even make it like 4 900 bucks if you get it up front and then 5900 bucks if you get it later so there's some kind of incentive to close the deal right I think that's that would be brilliant banana the disability they want to hear that because they they their opinion and it's an opinion I realize this is my opinion too but at least I'm saying a B test it damn it okay that's how you know you test it and then you will know just like with advertising test it and you will know I've been complaining that the front page of the Tesla website should not have dudes flooring it for 25 to 45 year old audience they're convinced they follow Elon Musk they mostly like Elon Musk though there's some people who are like okay he's sometimes a little shyster whatever finally finally they've changed it to women and families and that is what I've been complaining about on Twitter we want women and families here you go see lady gets in car you got uh what you know this is going through so many different Cycles here or whatever there you go finally finally okay this is what we want we want to see children we want to see car seats people women want to see strollers going into the trunk okay yes we know there's a frunk take freaking baby bottles out of there okay take the damn breast pump out of the funk damn it come on we need to expand the audience for Tesla and somebody not the damn tesl balls who are the Cyber truck's gonna be the best selling vehicle ever that may be true but why don't we talk about real things Tesla doesn't need more people you know we need more people given some real criticism here of the freaking company change simple things simple things okay like here's another example you want to know another example here's something pisses me off why is it that they know my damn IP address how do I know that they know my IP address because I click on order now and what do I see at the order now page you want to see what I see here oh look delivery zip code Because unless you're on a VPN uh which I have usually when I'm not streaming on YouTube uh VPN so man they bog your bandwidth okay I hate that crap but anyway they know your location and they just have a little question mark this is your zip right or whatever right it's obviously underlined implying you could change it if it's wrong but what should they be saying here hey by the way it looks like you're you're in California did you know if your income is under X or you have this many people in your household you could actually get an additional up to 7 500 with with California the clean energy rebate you know it might even be an extra two thousand dollars come on why is that nowhere here Tesla is selling the damn cars and they're not telling you something that could take a few damn minutes of research why are they not doing that that's a laziness this is a lack of oversight on the company that should be advertising every free advantage that they have you think the solar people when they go to sell solar are like you should buy solar because you're gonna break even on your solar investment in four years you think that's all they say no they tell you about every tax credit under the sun because that's called selling why would you not take a free benefit and inform your customer about it clean energy rebate California okay it's not that hard okay we're gonna do it together and then I've got some more crap to complain about look at this what it says look at this funds are nearly exhausted applications received on or after September 6th 2023 will be placed on a standby list bro why is Tesla not been announcing this to every freaking person look at that effective August 15th increase rebate recipients will receive an additional two thousand dollar EV card what the hell like they're letting all the other companies pitch this crap okay let's go in here let's grab a uh let's grab a battery electric vehicle new scrap a retire a vehicle no uh okay whatever let's go with uh San Diego household size four income I don't know let's go to 90 to 120.
let's just see what we get we got a freaking calculator come on wait for it it's loading it's pinwheeling okay I realize you just not loaded yet okay we'll let that load for a second anyway that's the kind of stuff that pisses me off let's let that load I don't know why the website's taking so long in the meantime what do we have here I'm gonna refresh jeez Lord come on dude how I mean it is California for you you know so you gotta you gotta kind of uh roll with the punches here because they're not uh they're not the best at keeping things functional but that's okay what about the other price drops okay the other price drops they were necessary you know how many times I have complained on this YouTube channel oh my god with the information that it hold on a sec look at that look at this I put in I didn't even put in a San Diego ZIP code and so they're not even checking on it but for household size of four household income of 90 to 120 000 you're estimated to get seventy five hundred dollars come the freak on add that with an EV card God damn it Tesla what are you doing you know Ford is doing this instead you'll just drop the prices where is your advertising Department what are you doing okay this is why like people should be realistic about Tesla and sending the correct pressure to Tesla as a stakeholder in Tesla and stop just sucking on the Katie Tesla has uh uh then also changed their prices on the plaid and the s uh as well as the X uh the s-plat and the long range S as well as the long range X and the Plaid X okay so let me be clear here well first of all it's nice some of these now qualify for some additional tax credits as well which is great uh for example the model X now starts under eighty thousand dollars so it makes it eligible for the federal tax credit but also some others for States again like we did in the savings calculators here I want to be very clear about this there is no reason almost no reason to buy the s to the X the S and the X also make up like a fraction of the sales I mean we're talking about under 10 of the sales okay the three and the Y cell everyone there's unless you wanna and I I made this mistake okay I want to be clear I I should not have bought both the S and the X I should have bought a y and a y the Y's got enough space the X is marginally bigger the doors are kind of cool the Falcon door is cool if you want to show off you want to waste extra money it's fine but for most practical purposes the uh 3 and the Y which you can get in the uh six seat configuration as well these are fantastic cars the seven seat version of the model X makes your trunk like this big you can't even put a stroller back you can't even put a case of beer back there damn it when you have the seven seats up okay so there's some lack of functionality things there's not much space this is why the Cyber truck is going to be really cool but I want to be very clear dropping the price on the S and X is necessary in fact they should drop the price of these more at smart get you're gonna get extra margin here like do it I know there's some extra cost but it's not much extra cost uh but uh this is smart they didn't drop the price on the three and the Y in fact in some countries they actually increased the price of the model 3 uh which honestly will probably more than offset the damage of the price drop on these cars that people aren't buying anyway the S and the X because it doesn't make sense to do that Biden announced some more grants for auto manufacturing conversion projects two billion dollars Tesla doesn't convert but they do have two billion dollars in loans to support auto manufacturing we don't need loans we got free cash flow although I wouldn't be surprised if soon if they get some sweetheart deals uh they'll actually start using some of those loans or they'll just sell shares 3.5 a billion dollars to expand domestic uh manufacturing of batteries for EVS that's good that's great the new uh Tesla Model three eight percent more range new rear passenger stream screen I made a joke I'm like oh it's got LED strips that's gonna hurt margins it's a joke damn it I know they're cheap uh stockless driving grade reduction in Parts vented front seats that's actually kind of cool uh look you know these are these are normal things like these aren't things where we should be like oh my gosh project Island it's gonna it's gonna change all the margins it will be a more efficient and more profitable vehicle but you would expect this it's like you expect Apple to improve on the iPhone every year that's what a good company does I do believe that Tesla is a good company I do believe that the valuation for Tesla in the future will be substantially higher than where the valuation is for Tesla today I strongly believe that by the end of 2025 it's actually reasonable to be sitting somewhere around a 420 figure assuming a 1.67 peg at about a 35 percent growth rate and about uh 3.5 million Vehicles sold that's down from previously estimated four uh I believe that and I think that Tesla stock today is pricing in more pain with margin and uh higher for longer interest rates that's okay because it just gives you more time to acquire shares that will be worth probably no guarantee it's not going to double in the future uh so I'm a big fan of that but I'm a big fan here of solely being Mr uh you know oh God is Elon is God and everything they're doing is perfect no it's not and they should they if they're if Tesla's listening this they should be like I mean Kevin we don't expect you to be you know we need this kind of criticism we appreciate it so get some babies in the damn car pitch the freaking State bait you know people's ZIP codes pitch the state based credits it's free damn money free money you're letting everybody else take it by not pitching it it's stupid and I know people are like a little bit you know people can search it themselves but they don't they don't know that's why you have to advertise to go on a plane now and I'm gonna go fly and look at some real estate because I can't handle this anymore let's
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