Fisher Investments Founder, Ken Fisher, on What Investor Sentiment Means for Markets Going into 2023

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결론: 투자 심리 지표는 매우 비관적이며, 이는 약세장 바닥 이후 상승의 전조로 해석되므로 강세 신호다. 현재 주요 심리 지표(다양한 센티먼트 인덱스)는 역사적 저점 수준으로 매우 침체되어 있다. 2022년에는 우크라이나 전쟁, 인플레이션, 경기침체 우려, 공급망 차질, 정치적 혼란 등 여러 공포 요인이 동시에 존재해 비관이 누적되었다. 금리 인상이 경기침체를 부를 것이라는 우려가 크지만, 글로벌 대출 성장률이 여전히 견조하고 기업 이익률이 인플레이션과 함께 상승하고 있어 침체 시나리오가 성립하려면 여러 조건이 깨져야 한다는 주장이다. 장기적으로 주식은 인플레이션에 대한 괜찮은 헤지 수단이며, 인플레이션은 결국 주가에 반영된다. 반면 금이 약세인 점, 강달러, 유럽의 높은 에너지 가격 등은 상충되는 신호로 제시된다. 약세장 바닥 이후 시장이 오를 때 사람들이 오히려 더 비관하는 '불신의 비관주의(pessimism of disbelief)' 현상이 나타나며, 이는 향후 긍정적 서프라이즈로 이어져 강세장을 뒷받침한다고 주장한다. 바닥이 정확히 언제인지는 특정하지 않았지만 아직 약간 남았을 수 있다고 언급했다. 워런 버핏의 '남들이 탐욕스러울 때 두려워하고, 남들이 두려워할 때 탐욕스러워라'는 격언을 인용하며, 현재는 사람들이 탐욕보다 두려움에 가깝다고 평가했다. 개별 종목이나 지수에 대한 구체적 목표가나 기간은 제시되지 않았다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. let me talk about sentiment a bit some of this I've talked about in other videos in recent months uh some but I haven't but most major sentiment indexes and I've written about this and things that I've posted on my Twitter feed that I've written and posted on my Twitter feed and some in LinkedIn that I've written directly in LinkedIn sentiment indexes however you measure them show sentiment to be very depressed they tend to be very low to some at all time lows there's quite a few of them they measure sediment different ways but they all show depressed sentiment uh I I don't think you find that surprising there's a lot of things that people have fears about right now and the analogy or an analogy that I've used on this often has been that which is there are so many things in 2022 that people have been afraid of at least eight major stories that keep going whether it's a Ukraine war inflation fear of recession uh you can go on about supply chain disruptions political turmoil and then subset ones like the inflation fear and Rising interest rate fear inflation fear and central banks reacting to that maybe overreacting to that causing recession uh on a nominal the phrase being is the Fed in America gonna kneecap us and the reality is all of these many fears and more high oil on and on feel a little bit like we've got a swarm of bees chasing us and the stings don't actually kill us but they scare the Dickens out of us because there's so many bees and that builds fear and it builds depressed sentiment and it builds a tendency and desire to look for more problems the strong dollar oh my God a strong dog and as we look at all these things they can't all be true number one some can but the ones being true offset other ones let me just give you an example of that recently there's been a lot of fear about that Central Bank a U.S fed raising rates to fight inflation which will choke off the inflation eventually and in the process probably cause recession will mind you that's not an impossible thesis but for that thesis to play some other things have to happen let me point out that there's abundant evidence that that's not happening first despite the increased rates a simple fact is in America and overseas Global loan growth is continuing very robust you do not get Global loan growth being robust as a recession unfolds that that would have to break secondarily as inflation has gone up the profit margins of Corporations have gone up with an almost perfect fit I mean it's almost perfect it's stunning I put a chart on my Twitter feed on that uh in September and it's it's staggering people don't see or understand that that's going on but it is it's simple fact and that can't happen you if we're in a recession period both of those can happen if we have continued inflation but they can't happen in a recession period uh how bad is inflation for the economy and the stocks that we don't have recession well it's not that bad in fact we have a long history that and stocks are actually pretty good inflation hedge in the long term always have been not perfectly not immediately but eventually uh that inflation ripples into stock prices but then again you get these other inconsistencies like gold being weak which doesn't correlate well with the history of inflation uh and what you really have is a strong dollar uh and then High Energy prices in Europe let me just say that all these sentiment features need to pessimism as a bull market begins there's this feature that I've talked about before that I call the pessimism of disbelief which is the tendency of people to get more pessimistic as the market starts to go up where maybe we had a bottom in June the middle of June on June 14th maybe we had a bottom depending on how you measure it which indexes you look at in July the stocks are higher either way and when you think about these things it is normal I'm not saying those were the bottom I don't really know but it is normal when you have a bear Market make a bottom and start to go up for people to keep getting more pessimistic as it goes up the pessimism leads to Future positive surprise which becomes doubly bullish fully buoying the bull market and you should view today's sentiment as the precursor to higher prices ahead without any precise timing of whether we've had the bottom the Bottom's still a little bit ahead what's going on that sentiment is that negative sentiment is not consistent with a world that's about to fall apart it's more consistent with a world that's already seen its stock market bottom and is starting to rise and the pessimism of disbelief builds so you get yes buts to all positivity all new things that come along Better Than People feared as people keep looking for the bad that looking for the bad is a good and you should view sentiment in that way because negative sentiment is one of the most bullish features you can get another way to say that is just to go back to Warren Buffett's famous line which is that you should be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful and I don't think it takes a genius to see that these days people are not so greedy they're mostly fearful ] foreign