저자: EquityMates진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리의 최신 13F 분석: 그는 대부분 포지션을 정리하고 에스티로더 단일 신규 매수. 에스티로더는 매출은 횡보, 순이익률은 18%→3%로 하락해 펀더멘털 악화 지적. 엔비디아 90만주 공매도 및 중국 기업(알리바바, JD, 핀둬둬, 바이두) 공매도 언급. 13F는 분기말 스냅샷이라 시점 한계 있음.
다듬은 글
A cheat sheet is a quick reference guide or concise summary of important information. Usually designed to help someone quickly recall key points, formulas, commands, or concepts. One of the world's greatest investors, famous for the big short, has sold everything in his portfolio except for one stock.
Today, we're going to look into it. Ren, this is cheat sheet. Yes, cheat sheet where we look under the hood of the top investors and see what they're buying. Today we are talking about Michael Barry. Uh yeah, as you said, famous for uh calling the global financial crisis well calling the uh housing market collapse that led to the global financial crisis in America.
From there, he's built himself a bit of a cult following. Uh if you see Michael Barry's picture on a YouTube uh clip, it seems to do well. So, we're going to try and juice some of that Barry magic to grow our YouTube. But Michael Barry, I find interesting because no one moves their portfolio as much as him.
Uh if we think back over the years um times we've spoken about him, do you remember when he liquidated everything in his portfolio apart from those private prison stocks? Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. He um he to be fair to him he was early on China as it rebounded and that was another time where he like liquidated most of his portfolio but just held China.
He this guy loves liquidating his portfolio square one. But if there's one thing I know about Michael Bur. He's called a hundred of the past two recessions. He loves He does he lo He nailed the JFC he loves calling a recession. So that context in mind, let's have a look at his latest 13F and how he has moved his portfolio.
All right. Well, he's, as you said, he has sold everything um except for one company. And the sole company that is sitting well, I guess to just illustrate what he's sold. Last time we spoke about his portfolio, he he was long China, but he sold out of Alibaba, BU, JD, um Pindu Duo. There are a bunch in there that he's sold.
Um, and there is one stock that remains and that is Estee Lauder. Uh, to to clarify, it's not one stock that remained. This is a stock he didn't own. If you look at the 13F, it's added 100% of the holdings. So, it's a completely new position. True. Sold everything. Only bought Estee Lauder. So, what is Estee Lauder?
It is a global um uh not healthcare like uh beauty products um makeup and stuff. they manufacture and sell a raft of um I guess uh yeah beauty products. So he also has a number of shorts, but let's hold on Estee Lauder for a minute cuz I I wanted to have a bit of a look. So Estee Lauder is down 82% from its 22 2021 highs.
But if you if you want to take the bull case for um Michael Bur, you could say uh its gross margins look really strong. So Estee Lauder's gross margin is 73%. Uh L'Oreal 72%. Uh E.L.F. which just bought Haley Bieber's beauty company, FYI, uh 68% gross margins. And uh Cody is 63% gross margins. So from a gross margin point of view, you're like, "Oh, wow.
Estee Lauder, it's been smashed, but it um it's holding up okay." Well, is that flowing through to profit? Uh it is not. So for people unfamiliar, so gross margin is your the revenue you make from sales less your cost of goods sold. So like the cost of making the product. But then net margin is your actual profit margin.
And that includes all your other costs like your your team headcount and your you know your offices and your marketing spend and all of that stuff. Uh their net margin is getting pumped. So uh to start with revenues remained basically flat in that time that the share price is down 80%. 16.2 billion in sales in 2021 15.6 billion in sales in 2024.
Fine no major issues there. It's a large slow growing pretty boring company. The profit in those four years 2.9 billion 2.4 billion 1 billion 390 million. Wow. or expressed as a percentage um their margin their net margin 18% 14% 6% 3%. Wow. So declining in all major uh I guess financial well some of the key financial metrics of the business.
Surely Barry se there must be a turnaround story here that we're see it's ticked up a little bit since he bought or at least since his 13F was filed but honestly the amount of opportunity that's out there in the share market. It's probably not the company that I would get excited by. Yeah, it's fascinating.
Well, we'll continue to watch that one as he uh releases his 13Fs. But that's not the only interesting thing that is part of his portfolio. and he has now put on some big bets against or in other words uh he's shorted a number of very large cap well-known companies. The most well-known there is Nvidia.
He's uh shorted Nvidia. He's put n shorted 900,000 shares. Um but he's going to be hurting from that. Yeah, he will. So the filing date of the 13F is 31st of March. I keep coming back to this date because it is an important caveat with 13FS that we get a snapshot at the end of every quarter or like you know a certain number of days after the end of every quarter.
Uh but it's only a moment in time. So we don't know like when they're buying or selling or what they're doing around it. But assuming that he has held these shorts to today, he would have been smashed because uh since the 1st of April, Nvidia is up 23%. And that includes the liberation day fall. So, first of April, uh, then 2nd of April, Trump does Liberation Day.
Nvidia falls 15% in a week. Everyone thinks the sky is falling, but then from there, it's absolutely ripped and it's made up all of that loss and then some. And it's up and then, yeah, it will be up more now because of this most recent report. Yeah. Uh, but maybe he sold at the right time. Maybe he sold during in that post liberation.
Um but the other thing I found interesting in his short book so you mentioned earlier that he was long China and he was had invested in uh Alibaba Alibaba Pingjo Duo and the like. Well he turns around and shorts a bunch of those companies. He shorted JD Pingjo Duo Alibaba and BU. It's almost like he's like I've got the return on the upside now I think they're overvalued and so I'm going to try and get some on the downside.
Not only sell out but I think they're overvalued. So, let's hope that plays out and and we capture capture it through a short position. So, fascinating movement, highly active. Um, if you want to find these 13Fs, you can do so. Just Google it. We use a platform called Ticker. We'll put a link in the show notes.
Uh, it's one of the best platforms that we use for for stock information. I will say this about investing. Everything you do learn is cumulative. What I learned at 20 is useful.
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