저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 오스틴 로보택시 출시 후 비판점(제한 지역, 사고 영상, 원격 관제, 승차 수 대비 주행거리 등)을 나열하고 반론. 2027년 4백만대·에너지 매출 가정 시 주가 약 300달러 제시. 로보택시가 우버 미국 매출 10% 점유 시 주당 약 69달러 상승 여지, 점유율 30%면 200달러 가능성 언급. 다만 현재 주가는 이미 과대평가 요인이 많고 로보택시 단독 수익은 미미하다고 평가. 중간 기준 347선 매매 전략 언급.
다듬은 글
It's time for an updated price analysis on Tesla following the launch of the robo taxi service in Austin, Texas. So, in this video, we're going to uh break down how much money Tesla could make from its robo taxi service and how much this could move the underlying stock, which is quite exciting to think about.
It's also worth realizing that as expected, anytime Elon Musk launches a product, there is a lot of criticism. So, let's get started with the criticism first and then let's talk about the upside. The goal in this video is to be as balanced as possible. Criticism number one, Tesla's robo taxi service is only available in this small portion of Austin, Texas.
potentially a region of Austin, Texas that was essentially LAR based, mapped using other Tesla fleet vehicles. That's uncertain. That is not guaranteed to be clear. But what we do know is that the FSD vehicles that these robo taxis about 10 to 12 uh Model Y vehicles use is a beefed up robo taxi system uh or an FSD system that regular users do not have access to.
That is one criticism. Second criticism obviously is that so far only people who are signing up and who are handpicked by Tesla staff are having the opportunity to actually enjoy these rides leading to some speculation that only people with a positive outlook for Tesla are actually getting to experience these rides rather than potentially third party reporters or otherwise.
So far, uh, one clip that seems to be circulating on the internet is this, uh, potentially mistaken left turn here, uh, in the Tesla robo taxi where, uh, it looks like the car gets a little confused in the intersection, starts jittering a bit to the left. It's not unusual to see that when a car is following a lead vehicle.
Uh, in fact, if you look closely, you could see what appears to be the navigation right here at the top right. So, the navigation indicates that the car should be proceeding straight and following the white vehicle right here. However, Tesla's FSD software does bias towards following a lead car. So, it's likely that in the very moment where it's lead car started turning left, you could actually see the desire to follow the lead car right here.
It got a little confused and realized, wait, the lead car isn't going the direction I'm supposed to be going. And honestly, a lot of people are pooping on this as a Tesla failure. I actually I mean like it's obviously not good that it cut this yellow line here, but for what it is, I mean, it shouldn't be doing any of this, right?
This I People do it, especially if you're in South Florida, okay? People cut those yellow lines all the time. But, you know, if this was if this is how it resolved it without intervention, obviously if there was a vehicle here, we would have expected it to stop. I mean, it's bad. It's not terrible, you know?
So, so it's kind of like the Chernobyl line. Okay. Not great, not terrible. It's a little embarrassing, though. But in fairness, of the hundreds of miles of trips that they've already done with these, for this to be one of the worst clips, maybe not necessarily that terrible. Pretty decent. Now, of course, that's leading to a lot of outrage from Tesla fans.
like this person. Third Row Theory says, "I'm sorry, Carlson, but I'm going to have to unfollow you at this point on all platforms. I really enjoyed your content since I discovered you during co, but your clear bias against Tesla is very off-putting and not very objective." So this is also not uncommon to see frustration amongst the the sort of criticism that gets more virality on the internet because as usual when mistakes happen especially with robo taxis you're going to get more criticism.
Now, here's a post from Tesla AI's team that uh Elon Musk also shared on X, and I think I think it's great and very rewarding for the team to be able to share this image because it shows like you've got a whole department dedicated to this robo taxi launch. And it's a big deal for Tesla, like very motivating for all the Tesla employees, mind you, right?
But of course, one of the first things that you realize uh when people get into these actual uh photos is that there appears to be a set of steering wheels at computer desks that could potentially be used to actually drive the vehicles. Uh from the location here, you can see apparently I mean it's hard to tell, but that looks like another one here.
Maybe another one here, another one here. And this is probably the same thing that you see with Whimos where they have some kind of control center where they can kind of take over driving for the vehicle remotely if it runs into a problem. And honestly, it's probably a good thing if you want end up in some weird construction zone or whatever, you might uh you might want somebody who could just quickly hop in and take over, especially if it's, you know, an edge case scenario, right?
Uh, here's a complaint from somebody who says, "Turns out the very much vaunted, never heard of that word before. Robo taxi quote unquote launch, well, it kind of already imputes some negative bi bias there, was really a quote mystery treasure hunt as instead of the robo taxi coming to you, you get to go on an exciting hunt for it as it gleefully hides some blocks away.
Can't make this up." Uh, so it looks like they're kind of taking a video from a Tesla bull and it appears they kind of can't figure out where the Tesla parked. Now, this is it's unclear if they put the wrong pin in or uh what they ended up doing or if the car is just confused. I'm gonna unfortunately just assume without watching all this that it it's it's likely that this is not normal, but it is sort of a like a day one launch issue.
And they do end up discovering the vehicle in this parking lot on the other side, which in fairness also to taxis, sometimes there are rules against just being able to stop on busy roads to pick people up. And if there's no available parking here, you know, the idea that, oh, let's just borrow the bike lane can can sometimes get cited.
I don't know, you know, it it's obviously inconvenient for the passenger experience, right? Uh so not not not great, not terrible. There are also now these rumors uh and allegations that uh Tesla uh you know has individuals who sit inside of the car who will actually uh tightly hold the door release button uh to potentially emergency stop the vehicle.
Uh, I would imagine there's some kind of safety component here where if somebody tries to open the door, the car just like stops, pulls over, and sets the hazards, right? Kind of ironic the Whimo in the picture right here. But anyway, there's, you know, somebody here. It could also just be like they're holding on to something, but then again, more and more people are posting figures of pe pictures of people with their thumbs on sort of the button over here.
uh almost sort of implying that they like move their hand their their um finger off of the switch, you know, when when there's no concern or whatever. I I don't know. I mean, this seems a little extreme, a little nitpicky here, but it is an allegation that's happening. Another allegation right here is people are looking at the other point of view of the, you know, Tesla control room and they see here 112 rides and then 499 miles driven.
Uh, and so people are kind of making fun of that ratio. So if we zoom in on this, what you could see here is 112 rides, 499. So 499 divided by 112 works out to about 4.4 four miles per ride. I actually don't take much issue with this because frankly the hardest part of the taxi ride, much like in flying, hey, have I ever told you I'm a pilot?
Is the takeoff and landing. So it's picking up your customer, parking where your customer is supposed to be, dropping off your customer, and that in-n-out engagement less so like I drove for 30 miles on the highway. Okay, Robo. Like Tesla's FSD has been capable of doing that since 2017. I bought a 2017 Model X in 2017 and I was the first one of the first people on YouTube bragging about how amazing Teslas were and FSD was uh way before it was popular to brag about it.
Uh that's not to say there weren't other people who were early as well or or even earlier, but it's just to say like this is not a surprise. Like getting highway miles is not a big deal for Tesla. Okay, that's not the game changer here. I'll tell you what the gamecher is for Tesla. First of all, this morning in the alpha report, before the market even opened, before it opened, in our alpha report, which which is available at meetke.com, you could join it.
Use coupon code Fed uh JPAL, just J Ap. We mentioned that Tesla today on this robo taxi launch is highly likely to hit 347. The 347 line is the way to go. and uh we literally skyrocketed it all the way up to 357 only to of course magnet down and consolidate around 347 because after all that's how Kevin's lines work.
That said, what we really need to talk about is what happens when we look at Tesla revenues uh or FSD revenues uh inside of Tesla's valuation. I think that's what everybody wants to know, like how much is this actually worth to the stock on a fundamental basis. So what we're going to do is we're going to go through this spreadsheet here and I'm going to break it down for you.
I want to start by saying that the valuation today we can calculate pretty easily just by using sort of a forward peg. However, you have to be really cautious about using forward pegs because what happens is you have to base them off of either your own growth rate or Wall Street's growth rate and both of them could be false.
So, always remember that growth rate matters and use a consistent standard for when you're making estimates for a stock. Obviously, PEG ratios do you no good when something is experiencing large momentum. They're typically used for a fundamentalbased analysis. So, if I get the annual earnings expectations for Tesla and we go to let's see here we've got let's see 2025 estimates of earnings per share.
Ah, here we go. financials. Okay, perfect. So, 2025 we're looking at about a buck 89 of earnings. Okay. Well, the stock right now is trading for about $348 and we're looking at a buck 89 of earnings. That means right now we're trading for about uh 184 times. Well, Wall Street believes that Tesla's earnings, so their EPS over the next four years into the future could average 38.8%.
So we take that 184 divided by 38.8% equals Tesla right now is trading for about a 4.7 peg which is quite high. Technically if Tesla were trading as a manufacturer right now as a manufacturer Tesla would probably be trading for about $120 time $120 purely as a manufacturer and as a service provider.
So like you know uh robo taxi or or some other higher margin business right they'd be trading for based on today's EPS they'd be trading for about $200. So there's a big premium built into there for something else. Roboaxi Optimus Hope whatever. So what I've done is I've gone ahead and put together a spreadsheet for 2027.
And this is my opinion of 2027 and how we get in here. So, first what I like to do is I'm going to assume that for 2027 we're going to have uh 4 million vehicles. You know what? I'm going to actually move this over to the laptop because sometimes the laptop's just or the computer rather desktop. It's a little easier to look at.
Uh so we're going to take 2027 numbers for Tesla and we're going to assume that vehicle deliveries grow. Uh so we get back to potentially a lower interest rate environment. I actually think that's very likely given also that the Fed is kind of starting to give us some hints that they're freaking out a little bit about the potential labor market, which mind you, as long as like the people who buy Teslas can keep up their earnings, you might actually be in a place where hey, maybe uh maybe we could still buy Teslas, right?
Uh that's going to be the important thing. So you ask yourself that when you're thinking about Tesla, who's buying Teslas when rates come back down? Well, hopefully everybody. That's the goal for any car company. Uh but rates coming down should be really supportive of Tesla. So let's go in here. So we're assuming 4 million vehicles uh at a revenue per vehicle of about 34,000.
So this is relatively low. Uh but the average selling prices for the vehicles have been falling. And our latest revenue per uh vehicle has been somewhere around 40.5K. But we're lowering this a bit just because we do think over time these prices are trending down. We'll hopefully have some lower price vehicles introduced, but we can always adjust this back up.
I do think keeping this $26 billion in here might be a risk. This is a high estimate for 2027. Losing uh battery and solar tax credits uh could hurt this substantially. So, it's worth knowing we probably have to lower the energy revenues down quite a bit. So, that's going to be something we have to pay attention to as well.
And then what we're going to do is we're going to include uh the uh what's it called? Uh the robo taxi revenues. Okay. Why is my collaboration? Okay, screw it. We'll we'll go to the iPad stupid thing. It's uh classic classic Apple not being able to sync this stuff. So put a bit like put an asterisk on this due to uh due to the big beautiful bill, right?
Loss of energy credits. Mind you, they also get manufacturing t tax benefits. So, you you want to be aware of that as well. Okay. Mind you, I'm also not really putting any revenues in here for insurance or semis or FSD. The reason I don't do that is because I put I assume FSD is part of the revenue per vehicle.
Uh and uh a Tesla bot. I think we're still a little too early for this. And we're going to go throw robo taxi in in just a moment. But first, I want to show you what the numbers look like without robo taxi. So, this is 2027 and it assumes a massive growth in the energy business. And if I do this as a manufacturer, I could get this stock to about $300 per share as a manufacturer in 2027.
This actually isn't bad if you think about it. 4 million vehicles at 34K, 26 bill in energy, $300 stock. That's great. Now, what we want to see is how does robo taxi affect this, right? So, in order to see how robo taxi affects this, let's just assume for a moment we do a million rides at $15 a piece on average.
A million rides would be huge, right? If if Tesla could pull off a million robo taxi rides safely, no issues, gamecher, but still from a revenue point of view, probably not very exciting. Why? Because if we assume a 70% margin, $15 million of, you know, $15 time 1 million and $4.5 million of expenses is actually not going to move the stock at all.
Really, you go from 301. Let's see what it is. Let's make this zero again. So, I'll make that zero. It was 30178 30167. It adds about what 11 cents to the stock. So doing a million $5 or a million $15 robo taxi rides, that's not where the money is. This is not where robo taxi makes money. Where Tesla makes money is this competing against Uber.
Okay, Uber has about $90 billion of US revenue. Again, just the United States. The United States represents about 53% uh of their total revenues. uh and you've got about 7 million drivers worldwide. So assume somewhere around 3.6 3.7 million Uber drivers in America. Tesla has a huge advantage here as does any frankly robo taxi company in that with a robo taxi you do not have to deal with some loser driver trying to turn off the air conditioning so they could save money on gas which is a terrible customer experience.
You don't have to worry about the driver talking your ear off when you don't want to talk to them. And you don't have to worry about them driving like a loser because they're in a hurry to get to their next ride. You're going to get a computer where you control the AC and you don't have to talk to it.
I I would love that. Okay. I I like because I believe that six to seven out of 10 times I get an Uber that has one of those problems. They want to save gas and so they make the experience miserable. They yap my ear off. They won't stop talking. Or they just drive dangerously and I feel like I'm in a roller coaster back there.
It's nasty. Tesla has an advantage in being able to get rid of this. And so what you have to really do to to make this look beautiful is you have to assume that they could take share from Uber. So let's say for a moment uh Uber does three well Uber does three billion rides per quarter, 12 billion rides per year.
Uh and uh they got about $90 billion of annual US revenue. That's total potential robo taxi revenue. They still share that money. So that's not their income. That's not the company's income. That's their total sort of like you know how much gets transacted through their application. All right. So if you took 10% of this, you'd have potentially $9 billion of revenue.
Uh and this is US and we're going to go with a 30% margin on this, right? Because you you're going to have staff, you're going to have repairs, you're going to have vehicle depreciation. The cars you put into the fleet are cars you're not paying. you're going to have charging, maintenance, insurance, uh, supervisors, the app, you know, all the bull crap, whatever.
So, what we're going to do is we're going to put $9 billion in here, and we're going to see how the spreadsheet changes from uh the $31 price target we had before. So, if I do 9 billion here, we automatically jump up to 2.7 in robo taxi expenses. That 30 is already in here. Great. Uh, and then what we find is Robo Taxi has the potential of adding, I kid you not, $69 to the share.
That's priceless. I didn't even plan that. Uh, it has the chance of adding $69 uh to the share price of Tesla uh with 10% of Uber's uh market share. Now obviously this assumes uh 10% of Uber market share and uh appropriate licensing slash no major accidents right because obviously accidents could derail licensing and blah blah blah blah blah.
So you can see that most of the company's stock is is probably still overvaluing just robo taxi unless of course you get a massive surge uh and you could get way more than 10% of Uber that you would get somewhere maybe around of US revenues 30% or something like that right that's where this could get really explosive like you basically have to replace Uber uh and the problem there is by that point, how much competition do you get?
You know, is it going to be like are you still making $15 a ride on average? The average taxi rides 15. You know, obviously some are going to be 50, some are going to be five, right? So, it's just an averaging thing. Uh and and I would actually argue Teslas would be great for longer distance because they're so good at driving on the highways.
But anyway, the problem that you also have is this does include these sort of rich estimates for energy. So, if I just have these energy estimates for a moment, that's going to take $60. Not $60. That's going to take How much is that going to take out of this? 6930170. That took about 40 $39 out. That takes about $39 back out, right?
So, you're kind of already building in some pretty decent assumptions at the price where it currently is. Now, if we go wild here and let's just leave in the high energy and let's say that Tesla can do, you know, there isn't a lot of margin compression and we could do 30% of the business that Uber does at a 30% margin.
You know, you don't get the price compression yet or whatever, whatever, whatever. That could be huge for the stock. You know, this could pump you. you could get $200 share value at 30% of Uber's US market share. It's it's it's an interesting argument, right? But it shows you just how much work you have to do to get there.
Because again, think about it this way. If Tesla did 1 million Uber Uber rides at $15 a piece, it'd be $15 million of rides. That's nothing. Like Uber's doing somewhere on 12 billion. They're doing like a billion rides a month. A billion rides per month. I don't even think I could do the math on that on this calculator.
I can't. A billion rides per month would work out well. I could have done that in my head. I guess that would work out to about 33 million rides a day. That means every hour in the US they're doing 1.3 million rides. That seems wild. Anyway, okay. So, let's see uh what some of your comments are here.
Tesla will get permits at red states. Cool. How many of your drivers are in red states would be the next question, right? So like how many Uber rides of the uh $90 billion of total available robo taxi or taxi revenue Uber makes in the United States in a year, how much of that is in red versus blue? That would be worth looking at, right?
Uh mind you that Uber is also in 70 different countries. So you the TAM is very huge, right? Uh, somebody says, "I've been watching your previous videos. Just want to say pretty impressive." Oh, that's awesome. Well, thank you. I'm I'm making a Tesla video right now, so we'll have to talk about other recommendations later.
Uh, let's see here. I want to see some of these other somebody here says Tesla to 8,000 per share by 2032. Let's go. I have an opinion that uh rates will be zero and potentially will be at negative rates in 2032. So, I I don't I don't uh I'm not surprised by that. Uh somebody says you need to go to Austin to test this out.
I'm not going to Austin unless they invite me. Uh you have to be on like their weight list and their their fancy thing here. I I would do it. Uh it'd be I don't Do I really want to go to Austin? I don't know that I want to go to Austin. Um I could trip it, I guess. Let's see here. Somebody So, somebody here says, "I disagree with your robo taxi evaluation for 10% of Uber with scale and labor cost.
Robo taxi is three to four times higher." No, no, no, no. You're you're forgetting that I'm Okay, I want to be crystal clear about this. I'm not including the labor costs. I'm saying $90 billion of Uber revenue is the entire taxi value that they do in the United States in a year approximately. That's not their revenue where they already pay labor.
That's the total bill. The bill. Okay. I'm not taking what Uber made in revenue after they paid the workers or shared it with people. I'm taking the total damn number. Okay. Total. Okay. And then I'm I'm literally taking that generous total and I'm only taking 30% off for Tesla's costs. So, I think I'm being very generous here.
Now, to actually get as many rides as Uber does, well, you're going to need vehicles, right? I mean, in order to do, you know, a million rides, I mean, if they're doing what, 33 million a day, they're doing a million rides an hour. Damn, you need you need like a million robo taxis out there working 24/7 probably.
Uh, which is fine. You could do that, but it's going to take your production a year or two to really like actually create that many robo taxis, assuming you have the licensing or whatever else, right? The problem though, and and this is the biggest risk for robo taxis, is taxi revenue isn't that large.
Remember, when you sell somebody a car at a 20% margin, you're making 7,000 bucks. 78 7 to$10,000, maybe even more if you get a Model S or Plaid. If you sell somebody a taxi ride, you know, every time you get a $15 ride, you're making five. It's like the margins are small, so you need to make it up in massive volumes.
And that's where eventually you wonder like, well, could Zuks and Whimo compete, but they don't have the manufacturing piece. That's one of the benefits that Tesla has is manufacturing. Somebody says, Kevin, how do you figure in the Lyft acquisition? Well, I actually think it would be very smart for Tesla to buy Lyft because if they bought Lyft, they would immediately have rides.
Like, nobody has to go download the Tesla app to get a ride. They could do it through the Lift app and then a Tesla shows up, right? That would be fantastic. Uh, let's see here. Let's see what some of your other comments are. Tesla is slowly turning into a services company. Well, it ain't so far at all a services company.
In fact, my estimate on this sheet right here has Tesla at $137 million of service revenue. And if I remove robo taxi since this is just an idea right now, uh that would be uh out of the $177 billion of total revenue that you we're sorting writing writing up over here. Oh, sorry. Uh services are actually only 6.8 billion.
So 6.8 divided by 177. 6.8 divided by 177, not including robo taxis. Services make up like 3 to 4% of Tesla's revenue right now. So, it's really hard to argue right now that Tesla's a service company. I get it because of, you know, insurance and and the ideas of where we can go in the future. Uh, so let's see what else here.
Uber resets reviews. That's true. And that's a scam, but they definitely do that. Well, I shouldn't say they definitely do that. is my opinion based on what I've heard from Uber drivers or people who work with Uber that they just reset your review. Uh does that mean that's 100% true? I don't know. I can't fact check.
But yes, I have heard that they kind of reset the reviews and that's why you never get into an Uber with less than like a 4.8 star review. It's not cuz they're good drivers. It's because of it's a human business and uh and and uh you know people people just get a get a little reset or doodle and it's over.
Somebody says, "Your analysis doesn't matter. The market is emotions-based." Well, that's true. The market in the short term is emotions-based. But as a long-term investor, I like looking at a company like Tesla and saying, "Okay, well, when is it valued below my fundamentals, and that's when I just start salivating." Uh, let's see here.
Somebody writes, "One million cars times 30 rides per day times 365 times 5year estimated life of a car." smiley face. Well, I mean, again, I don't we don't even have to multiply that far. 30 rides per day, I think, would be too little because that would be 30. What are we doing? That's 30. Oh, maybe not.
30 million a day. That's about what Uber's doing, right? Yeah. Yeah. I think because we were saying 33 million. Okay. Yeah, that could work. So, 30. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, that's that's just like the math we were doing, which is uh Uber's doing about a bill uh rides in the US per month. Works out to about 33 mil.
So, yeah. Okay. No, no, no. I I I think you're just sort of back uh like running off of some of the numbers that we were talking about. Yeah, that's fair. That's a good way to put it. So, let's see here. Uh somebody says, "Super slim margins." Yes, I agree with that. It is a very a super uh nominal margin business.
This is true. Tesla needs to expand insurance. Yeah, they will. That'll come. Uh let's see. I think that's all I got on Tesla. I mean, I'm looking at the rest of your comments here. Why not factor in Tesla current multiple? After all, it will always trade rich. No, it won't. Tesla does not always trade rich.
It absolutely doesn't always trade rich. Two years ago, I was trading for like a one peg, you know. It definitely does not always trade rich. Uh, so that's that's a very very flawed mentality of looking at fundamental analysis. If you want to say that it's always going to trade for a four or five peg, by all means, go for it.
I'm not going to put my money on those pegs. Now, I'm not saying like, oh my gosh, go sell. I'm not That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying new money, right? Uh, anyway. All right. Uh, three members of the Iranian Navy killed an Israeli air strike. Oo, yikes. That's my Tesla tak.
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