저자: Kevin · 외국인
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AI 관세 환급과 소규모 기업 고용 개선을 근거로 경기 턴어라운드 낙관. 다만 AI 실업 구간(2026~2028)과 사모신용 부실, 이란 전쟁발 유가 리스크를 경고하며 침체 시나리오(V자 회복, 증시 50% 급락 가능성)를 대비. QQQ 단기 등락 예상과 고용지표 전후 주의 언급, 장기적으로 모기지·대출 관련 자산 비중 확대 제시.
다듬은 글
AI tariffs have been ordered to be refunded and the jobs market is starting to turn around. This could be exceptionally bullish for the entire economy and so I've written out my hopeful projection. Here it is. First, I took this Gartner chart which outlines that we're going to be going through the thick of AI related job losses between 2026 and 2028.
To understand this a little bit better, let's just go ahead and delete what all these numbers and everything means and we'll add those back in in just a moment. This fat right here represents the delta between jobs lost or the blue line and jobs created from artificial intelligence. And we can see that Gartner, which I actually agree with, is projecting that we'll create more jobs as a result of artificial intelligence rather than losing more jobs because of artificial intelligence thanks to new industries being created via creative destruction or whatever.
We'll see that turnaround by about 2029 to 2030. But we need to make sure that between then and now, we don't end up in a V-shaped recession hole. And that's where the bull-bear scale comes in and that's where some of my projections come in. So first, let's put it this way. We know that at the end of 2025, we're around midpoint on the bull-bear scale around so far now.
We've been around the mid-fives on the bull-bear scale, bear-bull scale, however you want to say it. Uh and the idea is that a one is sell everything and a 10 is all in and you're even going up to say 30% on margin, right? That's not what you want to be when we're on the five because we're teeter-tottering on the economy.
In fact, that's what we could see with our jobs data now. If we look at some of the jobs data now, I'm optimistic that the turnaround we're starting to see will hold. Yesterday's ADP data, which is the private payrolls data, the I would argue less riggable portion of the jobs data, though I will say I think there's still uh some coordination between the Federal Reserve and probably the administration even with the ADP private data.
I don't know that with certainty, but I'm just guessing. So, I would make the argument that this if this turnaround continues it's actually quite bullish for us. Take a look at this. Small businesses hiring has skyrocketed compared to the medium and large. Medium and large is typically where you might find more slush, but the barometer of the economy often follows small businesses and small businesses employ about half of all Americans.
Whether those are solo entrepreneurs or duo trio groups, small companies, they're hiring. In fact, we're in that bucket as well. House Hack just hired additional developers because not only are we releasing our valuation AI, but we're also releasing a stock AI version of that valuation AI for stocks.
We've got some really cool things cooking. All that down the road though. What matters more here is that small businesses are hiring and I see that as well. You know, we've been prepared. We are cash heavy, no bank debt, and so we're in a place where we can hire. And other businesses hiring as well is a good sign of expansion.
And frankly, now that we've got a judge ordering a federal judge ordering the refunds of AEPA tariffs, corporations and small businesses are likely to get even more capital, which won't go directly back to the consumers who likely paid those tariffs, which is unfortunate, but it could go back to consumers through hiring and hopefully job wage gains.
Consider this. $130 billion of last night. I think this is bullish the economy and bullish jobs. This refund, I think, will enable more hiring, which is good. And I can use this extra capital to expand your business. And the judge had some pretty strong points against the administration trying to say, "Oh, well, it's going to be a nightmare to try to refund all this." The judge straight-up says, quote, "It must be possible for Customs Service to program its computers so we don't need a manual review." And in other words, you can process these tariffs rapidly.
"Your position is clear," said the judge. Quote, "The Supreme Court told you what your position is." Now, obviously, this is a really big payday for Howard Lutnick's firm. Remember, Howard Lutnick's firm, Cantor Fitzgerald, which he stepped down from to have his sons run when he went into the White House, that firm ended up buying the rights to tariff refunds.
What a surprise. And they bought those for 20 to 30 cents on the dollar, basically robbing American businesses because they needed cash at a really hard time during liberation. Now, all that profit and those refunds are going to Cantor Fitzgerald at a three to five x gain. That's at least what it looks like.
They're saying, "No, we don't." But it was widely publicized that they did, and they did through derivatives, and they're playing word games, whatever. Corruption in the government should be no surprise. At this point, you kind of just put your blinders up and try your best. You vote and you work hard and focus on your family and friends and having fun and trying to live your life.
But, in the meantime, when we talk about the economy, I want you to understand my sort of projection here for the bear-bull scale and why it changes over time and what it has to do with these employment numbers. I also do think it's worth mentioning that the Alpha report over the last couple days had some interesting notes.
Just take a look at these quickly. I threw these up right here just so you could see them. So, yesterday's note, even though I wasn't live yesterday, I made a note that I think we can break back into the 610s on QQQ today. Not sure we'll make it all the way to 617. And we talked about SanDisk potentially seeing a bounce from the mid-500s, which it did, although that's not lasting too very long.
And Circle continuing to run. That's, by the way, one of our long-term plays that we've been picking up since about 70 bucks. Kind of bottomed out over there. Anyway, that one's done really well. But, the point is yesterday the Q's actually ended and ran up to about 612, so we didn't make it to 617, ended at about 610, which is essentially exactly what we said.
Uh and then today I argued that look, you got to be careful today. Today's tomorrow's jobs data, BLS jobs data. And even though I'm bullish about jobs data tomorrow, which is expecting a 55,000 job print, anything really over 30 to 40 is going to be good good enough. You know, it's still going to be a big discount from before we had all the immigration, but uh and so it's a big step back from that, but it's probably relatively close to our break even levels at this point.
And as long as we don't get anything negative, the market probably really won't care and it should be bullish. So, I'm optimistic about the BLS jobs data, mostly because I think Donald Trump's just going to rig it. So, I'm not going to pay much attention to it. I just think markets will recover after we get it.
But, markets typically sell off beforehand, and that's why this morning I mentioned just be cautious today. It's a hard It's It's hard to play uh the Nasdaq 100 on the day before jobs day because you can't trade jobs, right, when they come out at 5:30 in the morning California time. You know, that's an hour before the market opens up.
Uh and so people position beforehand, and I think that's exactly what we saw here with the triple bounce at 607 and then we lost it. Now, uh what's also worth paying attention to is that yeah, Trade Desk had a nice little surge here, but you have to be careful because even though there's now talk, which we saw coming in our course membership back in January, that Trade Desk is going to partner with an AI platform like OpenAI to sell ads, you have to be really careful because even in the information's reporting, they say that Trade Desk might not be the permanent solution because OpenAI will just make their own ad tech platform, which is pretty remarkable and not so great for Trade Desk.
Though, I will say balance sheet is great, valuation is really low, their revenues are growing at 18%, their operating expenses are growing at 14, which suggests they have positive pricing power, positive operating leverage. They're actually doing pretty well. I got to give them credit for that. And so is the jobs market, at least from some of the latest data.
If you look at the Challenger report this morning, we have a nice quote dip or a nice February dip is a nice reprieve from the elevated job cut plans. However, the big caution I have is what if these job you know, reductions and job cuts we're seeing right now are just because of beginning of the year optimism.
And what if that beginning of the year optimism fades, especially towards the end of Q1 as this, you know, uncertainty expands around the war in Iran. Now, sure natural gas prices are staying stable here, but oil prices are likely way underestimating a prolonged conflict with Iran. And so far life in Iran is pretty normal.
Most of the strikes are against military targets. And as a result, the oil market isn't freaking out that much, but if this keeps going or we end up having to move boots on the ground, which hopefully doesn't happen, it's going to be a prolonged conflict that lasts for years. And unfortunately, oil prices can affect the broader stock market and the broader economy.
They cut into consumer spending, which is really important. Because what good does it do if you're getting job gain, you know, wage gains if you're spending that all on gasoline at the pump, oil basically, right? Or flights, for tickets are more expensive, everything. Well, you're finding though on a side of good news, while we have that warning regarding oil, what you're finding is that we're not seeing any more reductions in how much people are getting paid, which is good.
This number had been falling since 2022 a lot, you know, you went from like 13% wage gains to eight, to seven, to six, to five, now four and a half, and we're stabilizing here. This stabilization is actually a bullish sign for the economy that we are stabilizing. We're now 3 months in a row on bullish jobs data, again small is expanding and yes, we're still concentrated in terms of where the jobs are going.
Like if you look at where is it? Here we go. Education and health care, that still leads in private and the rest is kind of flatish. I think the way to think about it is some people say we're sort of like on a tightrope. I think we're kind of like walking along the edge of a cliff. We're really high up on a mountain and we're enjoying the view walking along the edge of the cliff and there's no sign that the foundation, the dirt below us is about to crumble away and we're going to go crashing down the hill.
But obviously, if the foundation crumbled below us, whether it's private credit led, which is increasingly, you know, a concern. We'll talk about that in a moment. Or it's something else, then what ends up happening is we fall into recession and that sucks. Now, our bull bear chart accounts for this and we'll talk about that in just a moment, but understand this, private lenders are starting the foreclosure process on 7.4% of the 2,000 properties financed in 2023 at a particular firm.
This is because now home flippers, people who are going in just speculating on easy money loans and hard money loans, they're getting foreclosed on at the highest rates we've ever seen. At the same time, we're seeing smaller credit rating agencies just ticking the box of compliance for private credit firms while all of a sudden BlackRock is now slashing the value of loans that they had from 100% to zero.
Now, this was only a $25 million loan, but it's sort of like every time they go open up the books, they find more values to slash. And the question or the concern isn't so much, okay, who cares? Like those are just private credit loans, right? The concern is how much are big banks exposed to this crap?
And that's where Bloomberg is rightfully pointing out increasingly, big banks are providing financing that is frankly allowing private credit to boom and has allowed private credit to boom by either directly investing in private credit or by banks lending to private credit funds or worse, life insurance and annuity providers with safe money investing in private equity and these valuations are all getting cut and people are running for the exits.
That is a potential that could crumble the lending sector and when lending gets crushed in not just private credit but also in banking, then consumer borrowing starts tightening for cars and credit cards and buy now pay later or whatever and then that's when you have negative spending and a recession.
Now we we aren't in that place yet and I think that's where it's worth going back to this chart right here. This is my optimistic scenario, my optimistic outlook. My outlook is that we can slowly you can see like I'm not going to go to an 89 here because we could fall off the cliff. There are too many red flags that say we could fall off the cliff and I don't want to be in debt and then we fall off the cliff cuz then you die.
Then you go bankrupt. Right then it's over. GG, you're starting over. Nobody wants to start over. So, we are going to have some really big barometers of uh retail buying versus institutional selling later this year. Probably the open AI IPO in the fourth quarter and then SpaceX will probably be Q3 is my guess, like August, somewhere around there, right?
August, September. Uh that'd be my guess. We'll see. Uh and then those will be good barometers and as long as the labor market between now and then, uh then I think we can really start upgrading to seven and eight. As long as that jobs loss sector, as long as that fat that in between section here where you've got more job losses, as long as we absorb that, right?
So, we need to see over the next 2 years the slow absorption of those jobs. Because if we don't, then we fall into recess. Now, I don't think that's likely, but I'm going to be cautious for it because what would that look like? What what that would look like is we'd probably end up having a deep, dirty, you know, crash in jobs basically like this and we probably would be looking at some kind of prolonged V recovery, if you will, uh and we wouldn't really get uh a well, rates will be zero over here.
Rates zero in recession right here, right? You wouldn't really get a full jobs recovery back to trend probably for about 4 to 5 years. Like it would take a while. So, this would be a really nasty hole. Uh valuations would collapse probably, you know, 50% on markets uh and you'd have really good buy-the-dip opportunities if you have cash and you're not on margin, but uh this would probably be I'll call it 3 years of hell and Kevin Warsh isn't going to make that any better because he's going to be really uh reluctant to run that money printer.
Uh so, that is the bad scenario right here and we're on the teeter-totter of that, the edge of the cliff. Again, as long as we can absorb those jobs though, we can slowly get that bull-bear scale going up. Then, we'll get past the Trump inflation. I actually think Trump's uh tariffs will get totally removed in 2029 under a new administration.
Uh it'll probably be Democrats after this. That's typically the reversal that you see. That's not me taking a side, it's just making an assumption. Uh and uh and they'll reverse Donald Trump's tariffs and then you'll probably see the lowest inflation like negative inflation, which will drive rates the lowest uh to the lowest levels that we've seen sometime between 2030 and 2032.
Uh between now and then, if we do not have a recession, uh no recession, what will I think do really well will do will be HELOC lending, right? Any kind of lending exposure as rates slowly decline between now and then will do really well. Lending's not doing well right now. They're getting destroyed right now because of the inflationary concerns from oil and war and new tariffs.
Which actually potentially makes it a buying opportunity. But mortgage plays, you have to be really careful about buying those because we're going to be higher for longer for a while. And so there's plenty of opportunity to slowly increase exposure for those. Just think you go into a recession you know, coming out of a recession, you're going to want some mortgage exposure.
Or coming out of a Democratic start to an administration, you're going to want some mortgage exposure. Those will probably be the best performing stocks over the next decade, but not in the near term. Like the near term still going to suck. Uh and and that's very normal. So I think that's just sort of portfolio building and and you know, skating to where the puck is going, right?
Uh so anyway, you know, the more and more we see these stories of fraud like the CEO of the collapsed lender MFS spent a bunch of money on on artwork like signed soccer jerseys or signed boxing gloves or bats or whatever. Those were all displayed on the offices at this company. And then when the bankruptcy folks come in because they double pledged like over a billion dollars of assets, all of a sudden all the walls were bare.
The guy basically ninjad all the stuff because he's a big fraud. These people deserve to go to jail and I hope they do. I hope they get their time in in prison because they're scumbags and they're ruining the economy. Uh this is like 2008 all over again and I don't want 2008 all over again because it's going to hurt a lot of people.
So anyway, prepare for jobs tomorrow. I do think it'll be rigged to the upside. I'm not really worried about that. In the meantime, we're going to keep cranking with House Hack. I think we're doing really great work and I'm really excited to share some of the new projects that we're developing with our artificial intelligence.
And it's just going to be really exciting because we're doing something we're doing stuff that nobody else is doing. And I see all the products that exist out there. So I think we're really winning on this this AI front which I'm pretty excited about. So anyway, thanks for being here folks. We'll keep grinding and uh .
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