저자: MickKnauff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 워런 버핏이 �ere 주식을 장기 가치투자 관점에서 매수했으므로, 농기계 업황 부진 속에서도 장기적으로 긍정적으로 본다는 취지의 영상. [배경] 농기계 시장이 전 세계적으로 약화되고 있으며 John Deere도 영향을 받고 있다고 설명. [실적] 2014 회계연도 매출은 전년 대비 약 20% 감소한 약 290억 달러, 순이익은 약 40% 감소한 19.4억 달러. 독일 사업부는 매출이 약 32억 달러로 6% 감소. [전망] 현 회계연도 매출은 약 10% 감소, 순이익은 약 13억 달러로 추가 축소될 것으로 회사가 예상한다고 언급. [주가] 달러 기준 최고가 33달러 대비 크게 하락했으며, 유로 기준으로도 최고 956 대비 저점 634 수준에서 일부 회복했다고 설명. 5년 기준 주가는 11.9% 상승. [버핏 지분] 버크셔 해서웨이가 2,280만 주(발행주식의 약 7.2%), 가치 약 18억 달러를 보유한 것으로 언급. [투자 논리] 버핏은 전통 있고 단순한 사업모델, 장기 성장성을 가진 기업에 투자한다. 농업 인구 증가로 경작지와 트랙터 수요가 장기적으로 늘어날 것이라는 논리. [결론 및 리스크] 진행자는 버핏 관점에 동의하며 장기 가치투자 철학에 맞는 종목만 매수하라고 권유. 단기 업황 악화와 실적 감소는 언급되었으나 구체적 목표가나 매매 시점은 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to McKnauf's Daily. Yes, and a few days ago I already introduced you to the great investor Warren Buffett and his holding company Berksshire Haaway. Well, what Warren Buffett buys has to meet very simple criteria. Buffett always says that the business model has to be sound, it should be a company steeped in tradition, and you should build on long-term success accordingly.
Well, I've taken a closer look at one company in particular, and that's John Deere, the manufacturer of tractors and heavy equipment for agriculture and construction. Well, the market par excellence for these large agricultural machines is weakening worldwide, and John Deere has certainly felt the effects.
The crisis in the agricultural machinery market is causing difficulties for all tractor manufacturers, and John Deere, well, they also produce in Mannheim, among other places, where they have a large production facility. The total revenue of the US corporation in fiscal year 2014 was 20% lower than in the previous year, reaching almost 29 billion.
US dollars fell, profits dropped by almost 40% to $1.94 billion, and Germany was also in a better position, although they were even slightly better staffed there. Well, that resulted in sales of just under $3.2 billion, a decline of only 6%. The outlook for John Deere isn't exactly positive for the current fiscal year either.
A decline in revenue of almost 10% is expected, and profits are also likely to shrink further, now to $1.3 billion, according to the company. However, this is where things start to get interesting for you: the share price has been in the dollar range for some time, from $7 (its high was $33) to $7 (its high).
Looking at the share price in euros, it's currently at 7156, having reached a high of 956 and a low of 6348. So, it has already recovered somewhat. But who, of course, bought shares in this company to prevent the decline from continuing? None other than Warren Buffett. Buffett's holding company, Berkshire Haaway, now owns 22.8 million John Deere shares, which is a good 7.2% of all outstanding shares.
And the value of this stake can be roughly estimated at $1.8 billion. Well, and Warren Buffett is a long-term value investor; he doesn't want to... He's not just dipping into the market for a short time, but investing for the long term, and he's always proven to have an excellent nose for that. Well, for Buffett, John Deere is indeed the stock that, according to his principles, is an absolute buy.
Clearly, you have a company steeped in tradition here. John Deere was founded in 1837, which is internationally renowned, it must be said. And with an easy-to- understand business model, in the construction of tractors or agricultural and construction machinery, you don't have to think too much further.
Well, and then, of course, he says that markets are growing in the long run, especially in agriculture. Clearly, there will always be farmers, and we see the world's population is constantly growing. This means that more and more fields need to be cultivated, and that is clearly the reason why Warren Buffett is so heavily invested here with Berkshire Hathaway.
And that should give you something to think about. It certainly did for me, because Warren Buffett only invests in quality, only in companies that he actually knows, that he wants to hold long-term, and from which he sees positive long-term development. Well, and we still see this positive development when we look at...
Looking at the chart, well, after 5 years the stock is still up 11.9% despite the pressure, so that ultimately means something. Yes, now we have to see how John Deere develops further. But Buffett's view that agriculture, with the growing population, naturally needs more and more food, and that the fields naturally need to be cultivated, and that this clearly requires agriculture and, above all, tractors, should be fairly obvious.
So, I agree with Warren Buffett: only buy what you know, what has long-term potential, and what aligns with your value investor philosophy. In that sense, that was just a little opinion on John Deere, Berkshire Hathaway, and, of course, on the great investor Warren Buffett. Yes, that was with Knaufs.
I look forward to seeing you again tomorrow. Stay safe with me and the stock market.
댓글 0