Interest rates will continue rising until brakes are put on the economy: Ray Dalio

요약 보기

Dalio는 금리 상승이 계속될 것이며, 중앙은행이 브레이크를 걸기 전까지 실질금리가 오르는 긴축 사이클이 진행된다고 본다. 일본의 엔약세·국채매입 상황을 예로 들며 정책 딜레마를 설명한다. 주식과 채권 간 기대수익률 쿠션(리스크 프리미엄)이 줄고 신용스프레드가 확대되기 시작해 사이클 후반부에 접어들었다고 평가한다. AI 투자 붐에 따른 대규모 자본조달과 Oracle·SpaceX CDS 상승을 버블 징후로 경계하며, 기술 투자 과잉이 금융 문제로 이어질 수 있다고 경고한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. So, this is a challenge. When you say that, I think you probably mean Japan as well. What Japan did when it had a weak economy and deflation was they took capital out of the country to weaken the yen and buy US Treasuries. And by buying these US Treasury bonds, it supported the bonds themselves and weakened their currency.

02. And then their central bank also bought a lot of JGBs, Japanese government bonds. Now there is pressure to change that because their currency has become too weak. Many Japanese people lost a lot of money on their bonds because the currency was weak and interest rates were low. So in an effort to weaken these negative forces, there was a desire to return this money .

03. So it's a very difficult job. You know, you can't fight the current. You can only...Yes, I think overall he's doing about as well as you can expect in such a difficult situation. What does this mean for the Fed, because like all global central banks, they face a dilemma. Protect inflationary confidence or protect economic growth?

04. What does the path of balanced politics look like? Well, classically, when that happens, you see real interest rates rise, which is what we are seeing, and you also see central bank policy tighten. And that's how they apply the brakes. And so, you know, we'll get through this. And the meaning of the brakes is that it's not very good for growth and so on .

05. We also have significant debt and equity sales in the capital markets due to...new AI technologies and the associated capital expenditures. So there's a lot of selling going on, in addition to selling US Treasury bonds, which also applies to other bonds. So, it will be slowed down. And when we're dealing with confidence, yes, the obvious choice is: if you don't put on the brakes, you're going to see real interest rates fall, inflation becomes a problem, and so we're in this classic cycle now.

06. When you see real rates going up, short-term rates going up, and because of that the yield curve starts to flatten, that's when you start to feel the brakes, and that's when it starts to affect other markets, like the stock market. This is a different market. Yes. Well, the stock market seems to be confidently heading to new highs, and the equity market seems reluctant to accept higher rates, but they will have to live and coexist in a "high rates for longer" environment.

07. Yes, it works like this: you can when bonds fall, interest rates rise. When stocks rise, future expected returns fall, and you can calculate relative returns because you can estimate the present value, the expected present value of cash flows. Of course, there's a lot of uncertainty about stocks and bonds, you know what that is.

08. It so happened that it became a kind of " airbag". In other words, when we started this cycle, the expected return on stocks was significantly higher than the expected return on bonds . Due to this change in pricing, this " cushion" has decreased. And so now you're starting to see credit spreads starting to widen.

09. You start to see how this problem comes into play. So we are at the point in the cycle where interest rates can rise without crashing the stock market because there is sufficient earnings growth and sufficient expected returns . But when this "cushion" decreases, then you are approaching the late stage of the cycle.

10. So, this is where we are now . We know we haven't hit the brakes yet, well, for the reasons you're talking about, and credit spreads are still narrow and they haven't widened much. Therefore , rationing is just beginning. We have n't had any rationing yet. So I think we can expect further interest rate increases until we get to the point where that starts to happen.

11. Let's touch on the topic of AI, the development of which is being compared to the fourth industrial revolution. However, we are starting to see sudden signs of AI-related stress in credit markets. Oracle's credit default swaps, and you mentioned this, Ray, hit a record high. We are seeing a rapid increase in SpaceX credit default swaps.

12. Is this a warning sign that the bubble is about to burst? Yes, the cycle is always the same, you know? Great technologies are emerging, and they require a lot of funding. And everyone believes in them because they are amazing changes, you know, like in the 20s. Imagine, this was the first time electricity appeared in homes, meaning lights, refrigerators, the first time cars, movies, radios, and airplanes that could fly appeared.

13. That's why everyone wants to bet on these new technologies . And as these new technologies take shape, they need capital. They need a lot of capital. But this is all very inaccurate, you know? Um, if you don't invest fully, you'll lose the technology war. So, you need to get capital, right? And then, because everyone believes in technology and doesn't differentiate whether it's a good investment or a good technology, people invest a lot and borrow money to invest in it.

14. And because it's all very imprecise, you often end up facing financial problems related to this new technology.