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let's talk markets in the meantime earning season picking up steam this week with more than 50 S&P 500 companies and five Dow components set to report results join us right now is Ed yardeni he's the president of ereni research how are you setting yourself up this morning or maybe even I should have said last week ahead of everything we've already started to hear uh on Friday well to tell you the truth after hearing that report that you just uh we all just heard from the Middle East uh things look uh just basically horrible over there uh yet you know the the Market's hanging in there pretty well and I think that's because we've had uh several of these uh crisis and uh conflicts between Israel and Hamas that uh led to ceasefires pretty quickly this one looks like it's going to linger and yet the price of oil hasn't really shot up but I'm I'm accentuating the positives here in terms of what the Market's focusing on and and that's as you said it's it's earnings I think it's very likely that when all the all the earnings come in that the third quarter is going to be at an all-time record high for S&P 500 earnings which is pretty pretty impressive all in all since uh the gdau recession the the the most widely anticipated recession of all time just has been a no-show so far so Ed though think about H how do you think about those earnings and I know it's just impossible to put these things together with what's happening in the Middle East and what you think the larger geopolitical implications are and therefore for for the broader market so we could have amazing earnings but it's not even just what's happening now obviously stock prices are looking out call it 12 months 18 months out you know where where are we then and how does this situation factor in recognizing interestingly at least from the academic studies that I've seen and just you know you look at charts over the years you know with the exception of what was taking place in Israel in 1973 for the most part uh when there have been problems in the Middle East they have not impacted uh the stock market as as negatively as you might imagine they would correct well I think the the the obvious example of when the Middle East really did have a tremendous impact on the global economy and uh certainly on the stock market was back in the 70s when we had two energy shocks in 1973 and that was related to a war between Israel and the Arab states and then in 1979 when uh the um Iran revolution occurred uh oil prices soared a lot more than they've increased so far since the summer and as a result I think the market uh is looking over the next 12 months and concluding that this two Shall Pass one way or another the situation will be stabilized and if that's the case then the outlook for 2024 is probably pretty good uh okay but here's the thing you know prior to a week and a half ago where was a different debate about not whether things putting putting what was happening in Israel aside because it it hadn't happened yet there was just a fundamental debate about whether we were headed towards a recession How deep the recession would be and whether frankly 2024 or 2025 actually wasn't that it was going to be positive or stable it was going to be bad I mean that was I think there was a lot of people that were concerned about that sure well look one of these days the recession is going to happen the business cycle hasn't been uh you know forever banned and I I do think that the outlook for now is is pretty good I mean the economy has proven to be remarkably resilient um it's it's true that we've seen this tremendous increase in short-term rates and the bond yield and yet the consumer continues to spend there's still a lot of fiscal policy stimulus in the pipelines companies are investing in artificial intelligence and so on and as you know we had a really strong uh GDP during the third quarter which is why earnings are probably going to be at at a record high so I I think the economy has proven that it can actually live with four and a half to 5% bond yields obviously if we go a lot higher than that you know Jamie Diamond of JP Morgan has been saying you know we these are extremely dangerous times and yet his bank reported tremendous upside surprise earnings in the in the third quarter
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