저자: 미상 · 외국인
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미 PPI 둔화로 금리인하 기대가 커졌고, 가계부채·신용카드·자동차대출 연체 증가로 소비 둔화와 미국 경기 둔화 우려가 제기됨. 은행 실적은 충당금 증가로 이익 감소 전망. 반면 AI·반도체 등 기술주는 올해 약 13% 수익 기대. 홍해 물류 리스크로 유가·금 상승 언급. 중국은 디플레이션 우려 속 추가 부양 기대, 대만 선거 결과 및 지정학 리스크 언급.
다듬은 글
Good morning, Monday, January 15, 2024. This is Strategy Inus, a strategic analysis of the UK. The US PPI figures came in lower than market expectations. It 's around -0.2%, which has resulted in... The market is increasing its weighting for downsides. Interest rates in March increased from 64% to 78.5% recently, and it's believed that...
This year, there will be approximately 5 adjustments to the kidney function test results, specifically in May, June, July, and September. Right now, the water... There was a significant interest rate cut of over 100%, which caused the stock market to adjust. It's positive, but it's considered quite flat.
Despite receiving positive factors from the continued slowdown in PPI figures, the announcement of financial results... It's the banking sector's opinion that profits will decrease. Please lower the price as it needs to be set up. We're increasing our reserves, also due to concerns about... Regarding the debt burden, particularly the commercial property loan portion, which has been written off as zero.
This coincided with the beginning of signs of household debt. The price of houses has risen rapidly this month. November, as we previously informed you. That refers to closing the account to avoid default or increasing the delinquency rate for credit cards. And car loans are also accelerating. Rising prices could also be a factor that puts pressure on people.
Americans may slow down their spending from now on. That's consistent with the household debt figures. It just came out that there has been a 16% increase, with the majority of this coming from two sources, 50% believed to be due to... Due to the rising cost of living, another 43% is believed to be due to high interest rates.
Interest rates have increased, rising from 17.1.3% in 2021 to 22.7.7% in 2023. This has resulted in a debt burden that is more than 5% higher, specifically for interest on credit cards and other sources. This issue will be a factor that puts pressure on the... Spending might decrease from now on, and that would be good.
It is believed that the US economy will see a slowdown. The forecast is also downward, according to City Group. They estimate there is a risk of entering a recession by the middle of this year. The earnings results for the banking sector will be announced soon. The US reported good results in both profit and revenue for JP Moran, while Bank of America and other companies, including their portfolios, also performed well.
Other major banks also have revenues that... It has increased, but it might be lower than the market average. It is estimated that this will affect bank stocks when... There was a downward adjustment last Friday. Due to excessive expectations, coupled with... well... We forecast this year's profit to decrease, as Net Interest Rate Income (NII) has already adjusted downwards, and this also includes...
Risks from the real estate sector may necessitate... Due to increased expenses, the establishment of... The reserves have been increased, especially in that group. It's called real estate, and there are some partial cuts/offs for the real estate in the group that the banks are involved in. Extending lending has forced banks to increase their lending rates.
Reserves increased, so profits decreased. On average, it's around 3-5%, which is considered... This is a decline from its peak in 2022. This week, the banking sector remains the main focus. That includes the announcement of earnings results. It's the industrial sector and airlines that will be involved.
According to Moran's data, the upcoming earnings announcements indicate that tech stocks, particularly in AI, data centers, and semiconductor chips, are expected to generate returns of up 13% this year. Major stocks like Amazon and Microsoft are expected to see growth. It has adjusted upwards and is expected to reach a new high, which is new for this group, based on certain factors.
The positive trend is still due to the economic slowdown. US factors have led to beliefs that the Fed will lower interest rates. It's about lower interest rates and lower costs, that's what we'll do. Let's bring more liquidity back into the market. Yes, it's going up. They're pointing out that the Fed will move early, meaning they'll lower interest rates.
The payout is very quick, and there's a chance of winning. At most, interest rates will be cut more than 3 times this year. They think it will likely be around 5 times, and definitely this year. Yes, it will be an election year of elections. The President of the United States, along with... Lowering interest rates would make it a year.
That's good for investing in the stock market. Furthermore, regarding the political aspect... He sees it as supporting Fina, the person in question. Please represent the state of Minnesota. The Democratic Party in the election. Yes, he's the president in 2024. He will donate approximately $1 million to...
This is to support Philip as the challenger. Competing with Biden for the party's presidential nomination. This is the Democratic Party's page after Biden. This is a loss of popularity for him to gain from Chapp. Very much so. And another point is the risk. So, it's about Jerlis in the Red Sea, and...
It's the Middle East that the United States has opened. Launch an airstrike against the Houthi rebels, just to be honest. The simplest thing is to stop the Houthis from opening the route. Shipping in the Red Sea, that's the issue. This results in the use of ships to transport both gas and oil. At least 17 ships had to stop in...
Uh, this risk profile and the issue... This is what caused the global market to become a tense situation again. This is due to inflation again, stemming from transportation costs. Higher shipments and soaring oil prices. Yes, it's going up. However, the price of oil remains... The market is trading within a range, with WTI at $72 and BTI at $78, as the market continues to give weight to...
The global economy has already slowed down. It's good that I have n't fully recovered from... It is China that is putting pressure on us. The current price of oil has decreased. As for gold, the price has increased to $2,053 per ton. The increased risk issues have been addressed. Let the money flow into safe assets.
The dollar is still strong, within a range of around 102.1. However, there has been a slight downward adjustment. Okay, so the index is standing at around 3.93, and then the year-on-year figure dropped to around 4.14. European stock markets are rising, while other stock markets are also increasing. Asia is adapting with a mixed mix; the 225 remains adjusted.
The stock price increased by another 1.5%, hitting a new 30-year high. However... The market is strengthening again today, around 144.900. This might be a good selling opportunity. Profits from investments in the Japanese stock market. Regarding the elections in Taiwan, they are considered to have been successful.
The new president is Rai Ching. Tae- yeon was a former vice president during Tsai Ing-wen's administration. That's Ying Yuan from the DPP, or Democratic Party. She's about 64 years old. This victory marks the first time the DPP has won three consecutive elections, totaling 12 years. The victory of the Ching-Teo farm is attracting attention everywhere.
The world, because it believes it might be a clue. The fate lies between war and peace, after all. The Chinese government is trying to prevent it from being launched. It's about gaining power, but ultimately the majority chose... They elected Chakkra to president in order to protect... That's called protecting freedom.
It's a democracy, anyway, it's a victory. The situation at Shitenaka Farm has caused concern among many parties. This could potentially increase tensions in the Taiwan Strait. It might even erupt into a dengue fever after that. President Xi Jinping has made an announcement. They came out defiantly before the event occurred.
I'm voting for a coalition government with Taiwan. It is inevitable in the long run. It's history, you see, and we have to get involved. This is in line with the Chinese government's policies, both from the past and present. The conflict in Taiwan, for example, has created... The damage to the global economy is estimated at approximately 10 trillion dollars, and that includes the Chinese stock market.
There has been a downward adjustment within the range after the investors... This investment is based on expectations regarding the CPI and PPI figures that are believed to be released. It's slowing down and there's a risk of entering a phase... Deflation is also a factor that will affect the government.
China can further stimulate its economy. To add, there might be an announcement about a reduction in LPR on Monday, the 22nd, as well as an assessment. It was mentioned that additional photos of the incident would be uploaded. Within the system, the goal is to get the Chinese economy out of it. Following the entry into deflation after the CPI figures showed a slight recovery to around -0.3% compared to the previous month, and remaining at 0.1% compared to the previous year, this is considered...
I've recovered a little bit, to be honest. It's the pressure that causes inflation to adjust. The decrease is due to food inflation. The price itself has decreased by 37%, while the CPI remains at around 0.6%, unchanged. The PPI contracted by approximately -2.7%, reflecting the slowdown due to falling energy prices.
The nature of demand, or needs, both within and outside the system... Country, foreign countries, and export figures. Okay, I'd say I've recovered slightly, but I'm still here. With the price slowing down to 4.6 per grain, the estimated money is approximately 3.38 trillion at the moment. Imports have also decreased to 5.5%, including both imports and exports.
It must be said that it is lower than the levels during the COVID period. That was in the past year or two. Yes, it seems that the Chinese economy will face a very challenging year this year because of the... The risk of entering a deflationary period and related problems. The murder of Lemmasap is still a contributing factor.
Pushing demand to slow down and confidence to improve. It's still shrinking due to production; you'll see a decrease. There's a noticeable slowdown in the number of orders. A decline in exports would be another factor that... This would also help to keep inflation low, which would... This will be reflected in the company's profits, which will decrease.
I'll go along too, but anyway, I believe you. This year, the Chinese government will likely inject more liquidity. Fluency has increased significantly, including the reduction... Increase bank reserves and boost liquidity. With the economy in order to maintain economic activity. It will increase. The yuan will likely return to its former strength.
The weakening dollar this year will be a challenge for the Chinese government. It would greatly stimulate the economy, wouldn't it? Continuing this year, there will be a line called "Khao Khre Line". Okay, so in setting the goals from the meeting... Polypuro this March, because if... China hasn't fallen into a state of deflation.
The result of excessive economic stimulus is... This could also be a risk factor contributing to China's debt burden. Well, anyway, the market believes in China. There will be a very strong economic stimulus plan. It's been consistent since the United States... Interest rates have been lowered this year.
This is expected to result in a 30 basis point interest rate cut, as well as an increase in liquidity. Come in this Monday, or today. It is believed that the One Year MLR Rate will be lowered by approximately 10 basis points, from 2.5% to 2.4%. And on Wednesday, there will be... A key figure for China is its GDP, which is expected to recover from 49% to 52% in the fourth quarter.
This would boost China's GDP for the year... The company's growth exceeded 5%, in line with its target. The Chinese government, while expecting retail sales to slow down to 8.1 from 10.1, is anticipating a decline in domestic consumption. Overall, there has been a slowdown. Chinese activity still contracted in December, and...
This suggests that the PBOC may have to take measures. We will provide further economic stimulus throughout the year. As for Europe, the Industrial Production figures will be released on Monday. This comes out as a contraction, which suggests that GDP in the Eurozone in the next four months has a chance of entering a contraction or shrinking.
On the higher side, we're led by the big player, Germany. As for earnings in the US, that has already started. On Friday, we'll continue with the group. The banks today, including... The industry group and airlines, on that day... The government is closed on Mondays and Wednesdays in the United States for Martin Thor King Jr.
Day. Yes, there will be retail sales figures that are believed to... It has recovered from 0.3% to 0.4%. As for investment this week, I believe earnings for SAR will show mixed results. Chinese economic figures will indicate recovery. This has made it possible to engage in speculation in the stock market.
For China, the funds recommended for speculation might be TMB CH EQ hb CH. And looking at the overall picture, I believe the stock market will... The world should probably remain within the framework of that sizing. Thank you for watching and following, and please come back. See you again tomorrow. Goodbye.
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