저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
마이크론 주가 급등의 배경으로 AI 서버용 메모리 수요 급증과 공급 구조적 제약을 제시. 경기순환을 우려해 업계가 과잉투자하지 않았고, 경영진은 2027년 말까지 수급 타이트를 예상하며 다음 분기 완만한 가격 인상을 언급. 16개 장기계약(5년, DRAM 약 20%·NAND 약 1/3 물량)으로 실적 변동성 완화 기대. 데이터센터 투자 붐은 2028년경까지 지속되고 이후 둔화되어 교체 수요 중심으로 이동할 것으로 전망. 장기계약은 매출의 절반 이상으로 확대될 것으로 예상.
다듬은 글
Listen, I think the main reason everyone is talking about Micron is because of the skyrocketing demand for its products and the resulting skyrocketing stock price that this is causing. So let's better understand why this is happening and what it could mean for Micron stock investors. In the second part of the deep dive, that's exactly what we'll do with Micron stock.
to see the top 10 deals to buy now. So, of course, investors in Micron stock want to know about longevity, what has changed, what is causing this surge in demand for its products, and why supply isn't increasing to meet that demand. The management team stated when they reported quarterly financial results yesterday, Wednesday, June 24, that supply is structurally limited in its growth and ability to meet industry demand, despite their comprehensive efforts to increase this supply.
So, because of how difficult it is to add new production capacity , expand and improve production capacity , it takes time. These are very complex production processes that take time to work in the system. And given the history of the semiconductor industry, participants understand its cyclical nature.
So they didn't overinvest because industry participants understand cyclicality, so they didn't overinvest because demand was growing. They kept up with the usual growth investments within the trend, but not to meet the growing demand, which they believed was short-term. This means that the increase in demand is short-lived.
We may reach a new level, but the growth rate will certainly slow down. And so industry players including Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, and also if you look at the GPU side like Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel, etc., haven't invested, especially Taiwan Semiconductor, they haven't invested aggressively enough to meet this surge in demand.
Additionally, the new shift in AI system performance is now architecturally dependent on the performance and capacity of the memory subsystem. So, this has resulted in a more complex memory hierarchy that provides greater differentiation for Micron than at any other point in their history. In other words, their product is more important to the end market now than at any time in history.
And that's creating this surge in demand for Micron's products and services. The price increases that Micron has been able to endure are impressive and have been going on for a long time. This situation has been going on for several quarters in a row, and the management team predicts that they will find themselves in a situation where demand exceeds supply until at least the end of 2027 .
Although the management team said it expects a moderate price increase starting next quarter. Another thing that is structurally changing is long-term agreements. Micron has signed 16 such agreements with customers from various industries, including data centers, consumer electronics and automotive.
Typically, these agreements, they note, have a 5-year term, starting from the 2026 calendar year until the end of the 2030 calendar year. And that will be about 20% of their DRAM capacity and a third of their NAND storage capacity during that period. So, an increasing percentage of their sales will come from long-term deals.
And of course, this addresses the biggest concern of Micron stock investors, which is business cyclicality. The semiconductor industry in general, and Micron in particular, goes through these ups and downs where demand increases for a period and then goes through a lull period and then demand increases again.
So, they go through these ups and downs, but overall they still generate growth over the long term, but that growth comes with built-in volatility up and down over the cycles. But these long-term deals will reduce that volatility. They will spread out the ups and downs, reduce the highs and lows thanks to these strategic agreements that Micron has signed with several of its largest customers.
In the future, they expect about half or more of their revenue to come from such customer deals across all of their end markets. And that will probably continue for at least the next few years, but I don't know if it will continue beyond 2030. There is a shortage right now as these companies, the hyperscalers, are trying to build as many data centers as possible with as much computing power as possible as quickly as possible.
But I'm not sure this situation will persist after 2030. Once these companies build these data centers and feel comfortable with that level, they may not be jumping all over themselves to build these new data centers so quickly. And they can be more patient. They may be less willing to sign such agreements.
They may be less willing to pay these higher prices. And so, while this is taking longer than some market participants expected, it's not me, as I said, I was emphasizing that I think the data center demand boom is going to last for a few more years, probably at least until 2028. But after that point, after 2028, 2029, 2030, I expect that the growth in data center spending will slow down dramatically, and we will enter a period where demand will start to be driven by the replacement of components in data centers that have already been built, rather than by new data centers and components that need to be installed in new data centers.
This is a big shift that I see over the next few years, and it remains to be seen how it will impact the memory, storage, and GPU markets at that point. So, this is a commitment to purchase certain volumes over this multi-year period. And in this deal, they have a cap price and a floor price. And the price will be somewhere between that range, but it will be at least a certain price, and it will have a maximum defined price.
But most of them do not include a fixed price in these agreements. So they didn't give us many details on what would cause the price to go up or down. Who can say what the contract price will be ? Will it be customers who say: "You know what, we're not willing to pay such a high price." We want the price to be closer to the minimum." Will Micron determine what the price will be?
I think it will be a combination of both factors, depending on the supply dynamics, the demand and supply dynamics in the market, and which side of the equation has more leverage in the negotiations. Regardless, it provides some certainty to both parties to these agreements, and it is truly beneficial to both parties.
This allows both parties to manage their businesses more efficiently. This reduces research, development, and capital expenditure risk for Micron and its customers, and reducing risk is always a positive factor. It's a win-win situation for each of the clients in these deals. There's a lot of interesting stuff here, but there's still a lot to learn about this Micron and its developments.
The next part of the deep dive will appear on your screen. Click on this link and let's continue.
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