저자: Kevin · 외국인
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애플 전기차(애플카) 프로젝트가 사실상 중단된 것으로 보이며, 이는 테슬라에 유리하다는 주장. 애플은 제품·서비스 마진이 높은 반면 자동차 제조는 저마진이라 진입 실익이 낮다고 분석. 테슬라 자동차 매출총이익률은 약 19~29%로 떨어졌지만 현금흐름은 여전히 강함. 리비안·루시드는 대당 원가가 판매가를 크게 넘어 적자 확대, 경쟁사 축소 중이며 테슬라가 가격을 낮춰 경쟁을 압박 중. BYD는 플러그인 하이브리드 모델로 수익성을 확보해 세계 시장 경쟁자가 될 것으로 전망. 금리 하락이 진행되면 금리민감주에 순풍이 올 것이라는 견해 포함.
다듬은 글
wow it's finally happened after many billions of dollars and 2,000 people working hard on the Apple car project the Apple car project is dead yes Tesla has officially killed the Apple car project okay that's my speculation we'll talk about Tesla and implications for Tesla in just a moment but first let's consider what apple is Apple is a designer and an ecosystem provider you're locked into the ecosystem that is Apple iPhone Apple watch Apple iPad MacBooks Vision Pro virtual you name it you're locked into an ecosystem in which Apple can sell you high margin devices cases accessories and of course service Suites which are even higher margin apple is a business that is driven by high margin one of the reasons people argue is that that it is a pricing power company they're able to sell you virtual reality headsets for three and a half times what Facebook will charge and they'll do it because people perceive that Apple's quality is going to be the best and so when people thought Apple was going to get into auto automotive manufacturing and design people thought okay maybe we'll have a quality American based competitor to the Mercedes the EVS from Volkswagen or even the EVS from Tesla and one that will not only be delivered with quality and precision but margin see remember look at Apple's financials I I want you to be comfortable with the financials this is very simple all we have to do is look at their products right here we can see their products they generate around $298 billion of product Revenue those products only cost them about $189 billion to manufacture in well the year ending September 30th in the case of this financial statement that gives you about 36.5% profit on a product think about that for a moment you go into an Apple Store you spend $100 on an Apple product let's say uh oh I don't know something that should never cost nearly $100 but how about a dongle you know how much they're making off that 37 bucks every 100 bucks I know this doesn't actually cost $100 it may as well be because it's so expensive but the point is that's a lot of money that you're making on a gross profit basis on a product think about it on a dongle on an iPad case on the case for your 3D goggles or your virtual reality goggles i s for $200 for the freaking case I know cuz I was one of the idiots who paid for it anyway then you'll look at the other side what do we have margin for Apple Services 2488 divided by 85200 we are sitting at 70.9 9 cents of every dollar are going into Apple's gross profit so you spend $100 a year on an Apple subscription apple is putting about 70 almost $71 into their pocket that is margin baby it's delicious when you take out all their R&D and everything said and done at the end of the year what do you have about $97 billion left of net income after every expense this company has that works out to about 25 cents of every dollar going into their pocket 25 cents hm who has a goal of making 25 cents in gross profit for their cars and they're supposed to be the industry leader oh Tesla yeah we'll talk Tesla in fact we'll do it right now because take a look at this last year where was our gross Automotive margin well it was 28.5% at Tesla where was it the year before that it was 29.3% that's gross the net profitable figure was even lower right we're just looking at gross margin here net is down at like 8% now okay now on Gross we're below 20% we're not even 20% on gross margin for making the vehicle so why does that matter well think about it if apple is making 37 is cents on products they're selling you and 70 cents on Services they're selling you on a gross basis why they get into an industry where a company like Tesla is making vehicles at a gross margin of 19% at scale well they might not be very incentivized to because their margins would get crushed now you might say well there's there's competition I mean other people are able to operate businesses and scale electric vehicles right sure we might look at a company like Neo who has partnered uh with well other companies to help them manufacture their uh designed vehicle see Neo designs the vehicle and then somebody else manufactures it this leaves them with a gross vehicle margin of about 11% but after you actually get down to gross margin after the other expenses of sort of their revenues because their revenues are not just coming from vehicle sales they come from battery sales and other contracts as well you're only at a gross margin of 8% and they use contract manufacturing well who else uses contract manufacturing well Apple does does Apple manufacture this phone no it might assemble it but it manufactures this with a company known as foxcon and of course they're trying to diversify that manufacturing to make sure they can have as much margin negotiating Cloud as possible with their manufacturers which makes sense if somebody can make you a cheaper iPhone and can do it faster in let's say India great more profit for the company right same thing is true for the watches for the provision for the iPads the MacBooks you name it so you need a manufacturer who could do it it's kind of like Nvidia hey Nvidia you're selling $40,000 h100 and h200 chips who's making them for you ah Taiwan semiconductors you're not making them yourself and that's fine now what happens when in uh Intel for example opens up their manufacturing for some of these advanced chips well now Nvidia can negotiate with a company like TSM and say heyy you know we might take some of our business over here to Intel if uh you know you don't uh you know you don't negotiate with us on some of these prices this is how contract manufacturers make more money another contract manufacturer nase they don't actually manufacture their inverters that's how their margin on a stupid solar inverter is like 50% it's better than Apple's margins n phases inverter margins are like 13 points 133% better on a gross basis than Apple's product revenues uh or margins that's incredible it's crazy so interesting so you can make a lot of money manufacturing phones watches iPads computers and inverters at least on a gross basis can you make a lot of money contract manufacturing with vehicles well Neo can't figure it out well maybe another American company can figure figure it out maybe a company like rivan can figure it out oh well rivian delivered about 50,000 Vehicles last year and last year they lost about2 billion yeah two billion with a B is how much they lost trying to manufacture these vehicles in America that means they lost $4,600 per rivan that they sold last year now maybe you could say they're scaling but they're already at 50,000 deliveries and they're still losing $40,000 per vehicle consider how much it costs them to make these vehicles so all you have to do to figure that out is you divide uh 6.4 billion dollars by 50,000 deliveries what are you at it costs you $128,000 per rivan they don't even sell for that much they sell for like 80 obviously some of the other models sell for a little more but if your average cost is 128 what happens you lose money and the losses are worsening see all of last year they lost $500 million per quarter in Q4 they lost more they lost 600 million in the quarter so the losses are worsening they are not getting better this last earnings report was problematic for rivan but it's not just them also consider a company like Lucid who's had so many issues with service or scaling production at all first of all if it weren't for their Saudi Arabian subsidies they'd be dead but they delivered just 1,700 vehicles in Q4 Q4 Revenue was $157 Million which is great but wait a minute on 1700 Vehicles how much money did you actually keep on a gross profit basis ah here you go you earned $157 million but it cost you $410 to manufacture those cars so $410 million okay here's here's the fun $410 million divided by 1700 Vehicles it cost you about $240,000 per vehicle in just cogs to manufacture not including sgna or R&D if you include those numbers it gets even more disgusting all of a sudden you're spending $522,000 per vehicle delivered in Q4 now obviously you would hope that Apple would be able to scale more rapidly but who's going to be their contract manufacturer maybe you might say byd but byd's net income is about 8% on their vehicles their gross margin isn't that far off of what Tesla's margin is presently and that includes the fact that byd is able to prop up some of their numbers with an existing really powerful business business model that Toyota uses the plug-in hybrid model these are not just pure EVS they're plug-in hybrids they're really good at them byd is a great company just like Toyota is a fantastic company now I don't expect BDS to be sold in America anytime soon but what Tesla has done by dropping the prices of EVS to make sure they can essentially flood the market with their mass production Vehicles is squeezed out the competition Tesla has Point Blank told rivan you will not be profitable Lucid you will not be profitable any GM Ford Volkswagen Mercedes look at all of them they're all scaling back EV production why because Tesla is willing to drop prices until the competition is dead squeeze their margin down to where they're still cranking out massive cash flow delicious cash flow coming out of this company but what ends up happening your competition gets squeezed out is that bad for Tesla well in the short term it's not great because your margin gets hit but wait a minute what do we still have here we still have operating cash flow of$ 13 billion do at the company now of course a lot of this is being reinvested into uh expansions for new Giga facilities uh or uh essentially expansions of existing facilities which is great that's what you would expect a company to do the company if you break it out in terms of a free cash flow basis still in the year ending 2023 had free cash flow of just over $4 billion so that's over on average $ billion of free cash flow per quarter three that's almost what is that that's almost $10 million a day of free cash flow 1 billion per quarter so if I take a th000 divided by 90 days in a quarter it's about $1 million of free cash flow per day Mass manufacturing Vehicles this while Tesla has been plummeting prices for their vehicles consider for a moment the Tesla Model y so let's jump on into the model y order page and let's see how much we can buy one for know that the model y was selling for about $68,400 in 2022 and now if I jump into shop available model y Teslas close to my ZIP code I could get a model y rear wheeel drive for $41,800 41,800 divided by 694 is about 40% less the price of the vehicle has come down 40% % now what's remarkable is that's the rear wheeel drive model at 42,000 which doesn't currently qualify for tax credits but if I scroll over here I could get myself a long range dual motor Tesla for 50,000 minus the $7500 tax credit I'm basically also at $42,000 point is the cost of these vehicles has plummeted and Tesla has done so by Design the competition for electric vehicles is getting d destroyed apple is quitting and shifting their team from electric vehicles their 2,000 Engineers finally to something they should actually be working on either they're following the trends or maybe they'll finally make Siri work given that the plans are for the company to focus those 2,000 Engineers on generative AI work now remember Apple started working on the Apple car in 2014 they've been testing trying to get the vehicle to level two plus by 2028 but so far they're throwing in the towel and this opens up the world for Tesla to take it by storm at the very least in America because I personally don't expect byd competition in America given the trade tensions America has with China however in the International Community byd will absolutely be a competitor to Tesla and as a result the world will likely be dominated by two auto manufacturers Tesla and byd at least an electric Vehicles everybody else will get squeezed out unless they transition and quite frankly nobody seems to be capable of manufacturing electric cars at the margins that Tesla is able to do or byd is able to do with the benefit of hybrid manufacturing which is again a proven model that they've already scaled and therefore can print profitably as a result Apple has folded Tesla takes a big win here now from a stock point of view this is going to be great for both apple and Tesla now you think it should be take from one and give to the other but quite frankly Tesla's up about half a percent on this news when the news broke and which is actually a pretty benign movement and Apple's up almost a percent and a half given that it was red for the day Tesla and apple can both exist they're just going to exist in different worlds I think this is a great step in the right direction for Apple because the reality is unless they're going to create a manufacturing process which they have never done before at least as far as I'm aware they're not going to win in automotive there's not a contractor that they can call up and say make my Apple car for me they've all been failing with the exception of course of byd maybe they could pull it off but why not just let byd sell their cars at an 8% net profit margin and apple keep doing what you're good at that's the big question see why get into cars at all if byd is going to operate an 8% net when you could be putting 25 cents of every dollar in your pocket net income in your pocket so again Apple here smart move get out of the low margin industry leave more room for the players who can actually pull off vehicles and that's Tesla byd and the existing ice manufacturers and hybrid manufacturers stick with the high margin product and eventually as the competition is crushed I highly expect as interest rates slow slowly start coming down you'll see a Tailwind towards the interest rate sensitive stocks like an N phase or Tesla or whatever it may be and I believe the long run future for the company is strong but there's still some bumpiness between now and then but this does give you an update on what the heck just happened with apple and why I believe Tesla is heavily responsible for it thanks so much for watching if you like this kind of content consider subscribing check out my real estate startup house Haack go to house hack.com 2024 to learn more about our fundraise that we're doing now as well as the warrants that have been called due thanks so much my presently acting as a market maker
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