저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 인도 시장이 2023년에도 강세를 이어갈 것이며, 미국은 추가 하락 후 회복할 것이라는 전망. 인도 시장 전망: 인도는 GDP 성장과 모디 정부 개혁 덕에 세계 대비 좋은 위치에 있으며, 유가 하락도 호재. 2023년에도 인도 투자 확대 의지. 미국 시장 전망: 경기침체 우려는 있으나 시장은 2024~2025년을 내다보므로 10~15% 추가 하락 후 회복 가능성. 유동성도 여전히 충분. 포트폴리오 배분: 대만 비중은 점진적으로 축소, 인도 비중은 확대 중. 다만 거래 빈도가 낮아 천천히 조정. 인도 종목 선호: 금융/은행은 불투명하다며 선호하지 않음. 소프트웨어(퍼시스턴트 시스템즈), 헬스케어(메트로폴리스), 인프라(아폴로튜브) 선호. 단기적으로는 금융도 좋을 수 있다고 언급. 메트로폴리스: 코로나 검사 수요 감소 우려로 주가가 약 50% 하락했으나, 코로나 검사 비중은 실적에서 작아 시장이 이를 과소평가했다고 봄. 향후 실적 성장과 주가 회복 전망. 그린수소: 중요한 에너지원이 될 것이나 아직 실험 단계라 투자는 시기상조. 장기 전망: 인도 실질 GDP 성장률 약 7%의 두 배인 14~15% 수익률을 장기 기대. 고ROE·저부채 기업 중심으로 분산 포트폴리오 구성, 지수와 다른 중소형주 비중 확대. 시장 상황: 방송 시점 니프티 약 18,027로 보합권, 상승 종목 다수. 인도 코로나 재확산과 미국 경기침체 우려가 단기 리스크.
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I will have you back with a proper fix line thank you very much for joining us appreciate it well Mark Mobius is now joining us need to introduction is founder at Mobius Capital Partners Mark great to have you with us here thank you very much for your time uh and from all of us here at CNBC CNBC tv18 uh wishing you a very happy 2023.
uh all the all the best of luck uh you know in case we forget to wish you that towards the end of the interview Mark uh you know this year and the last two months actually right starting the 1st of November till date the Nifty the Nifty index in India is absolutely flat uh the Hang seg Market is up 45 47 and you've got markets in Europe which were big underperformers which have come back very strongly is that the big theme at least uh you know in the beginning this year uh the comeback of the big underperforming parts of the global stock market whereas the big Winners perhaps stay a little subdued what's your sense well I think the big winner of course is India and the fact that India has outperformed everybody else is an indication of the incredible growth that you're witnessing in India now which will continue uh in this new year I believe that we're in a very very sweet spot when it comes to India a lot of things are going well for the country compared to other parts of the world and despite the fact that you have recession fears in the U.S the reality is that oil prices are coming down and this is very good for India and also the Indian economy is doing very well on the back of the reforms that Mr Modi is putting in place so I think we're very very good position in India compared to other parts of the world nevertheless you know in any kind of problem you're going to have winners and losers and uh regardless of what Market you're in so there are going to be tremendous opportunities this year and I'm looking forward to continuing to invest not only in India but in Taiwan in Korea and across the world okay all right hi good morning Mr Mobis and good to speak to you in the new year well uh you know in the past Taiwan has been your top allocation followed by India and then I think China how has that changed I think the last time you briefly mentioned that maybe you'll be skimming off some uh you know allocation to Taiwan and maybe it goes to India how was how has it changed say in the last few months uh that's right we're gradually decreasing the amount in Taiwan and increasing the amount in India but of course these changes take time because we're not big Traders we're not in and out of the market on a daily basis so what we do is we gradually increase positions we have and maybe add some positions in India while in Taiwan we may subtract and reduce the amounts that we have in some of the companies in Taiwan but these things will take time and it's an ongoing situation of course depends on the markets if you could be reducing in one country but if the prices are going up it doesn't look like you're reducing you're actually increasing Mark a constant refrain or complaint from investors is that India is expensive does that deter you well I think uh what you see in uh the General market condition is that there are lots of fears about covid again in India coming from China and then you have the fears of the lap over a recession from the U.S but I think these are a very minor problems facing India and real situation in India is the reform process which is taking place um no got that Mark uh you know there have been some uh kind of sort of outrageous calls made by a large money manager saying that this is going to be a a sort of tough year uh uh I'm saying outrageous I should say big calls right big price declines for the SNP for the NASDAQ uh the general sentiment seems to be you'll get a lot worse before it starts to turn a corner and get better uh should we should we continue to expect a similar kind of resilience and outperformance in India like what we saw in 2022 if we were to see another say 20 25 fall in the US or you think it'll be different this year your sense uh my sense is that uh more money will go into India on the face of the incredible growth that the country is facing and experiencing uh despite what's happening in the U.S but don't forget the U.S has already come down quite a lot so you may see another let's say 10 15 decline in the U.S but not more than that then you're going to see recovery coming forward don't forget the markets look forward so the markets are now not looking at 23 but 24 25 so going forward you're going to get a much stronger U.S market in the even in the face of recession because the market is looking forward and uh you remember there's still an awful lot of liquidity left in the system uh despite the fact that the FED is trying to pull back liquidity reality is that there's lots of money available to Consumers and investors in America okay Marco What would you bet on in India in 2022 the Finance stocks Banks were the best performers what's your favorite uh we are not too interested in the financial sector and the banks uh globally we find that generally speaking Banks tend to be somewhat opaque let's move that way so we prefer uh stocks and the Technologies area like persistent systems in India you know software companies we prefer Healthcare companies like metropolis and we prefer companies that are doing something in the infrastructure area particularly in India because the infrastructure spending is increasing so you have companies like Apollo tubes and so forth so those are the areas that we really are interested in investing in the short term you may see good performance at certain sectors like Financial but I think in the long term the sectors that we've selected We Believe will do well and continue to grow anything you uh Mr Mobis that you'll have uh added you know these talks you've uh you you have been invested in whether it was persistent APL Apollo tubes uh you know Metropolis I think you'll have had this in your portfolio anything fresh from the India basket that you'll have got into a case in point saying that you like infra companies have you added any of them if you could name a couple uh we haven't added anything but we're still exploring where we can add in India there are a number of uh software companies we're looking at uh we're looking at Healthcare again and also some of the more interesting specialized tech companies uh companies for example that are doing mapping uh companies that are doing consumer surveys that sort of thing we are still looking at but we haven't made any decision yet you're a strong proponent of ESG you brought out a book you know arguing your case and India is trying to go big on green hydrogen we had a policy announced a couple of days back on green hydrogen do you play that theme or pick any stocks on that on the basis of that policy uh hydrogen of course is big and it's going to get bigger it's something that a lot of people are looking at and we believe that will be a big source of energy going forward however we're still looking at the experimental aspect because it hasn't paid off yet and so it would be a premature I believe to be investing in companies in that area we have to wait to see how the technology develops so this is something that we definitely are looking at but I think it's too early to invest in that Arena yet all right uh that's one place which has got a favorite policy push right I mean uh so but uh point taken Mark I just uh you mentioned Metropolis uh because you own it and you know the prices come off sharply right uh from the uh it's basically uh come off some 50 or so the diagnostic space I just wanted to understand what's your view uh first on why there's been such a steep fall and how do you see things panning out there's Dr Lal which is a competitor uh there are others listed as well go on I think what's happened is that because of covid a lot of people thought that oh these companies like Metropolis who are doing testing will do very very well in in a coveted environment but then when the covet is off the paper then these companies will not do very well so that's the reason why you've seen the decline in other words a lot of people said okay covert testing is over it's declined therefore let's get out but if you look at the earnings of these companies you'll find that covet testing is not a very big part of the total so I think the market has missed that that little secret so we think if these companies will do well going forward there'll be fluctuation of course in the price of the stock but going forward we think that the earnings will continue to do well and you're going to see a recovery in the price okay all right uh Maca you know what about the Indian markets with the three to around a five-year perspective do you believe we continue to compound that's returns of around 15 I think we briefly touched upon that in the past as well so do you stick to that and also how what about portfolio construct you have been uh you know allocating some kind of money to goal that's always been uh you know the way you approach uh asset allocation your sense for 2023 given that we could have a bit of a rough ride yes well if you uh consider the GDP growth real growth of India is 70 right um usually you can use that as The Benchmark for predicting the growth of the market which would be double the GDP in other words seven times two 14 15 returns in the market it's normally what you would expect and uh so I would stick by that prediction I would think that the market is going to continue to return that kind of uh increase of course there'll be fluctuations you're going to get ups and downs but on the average that's the kind of an increase in terms of capital allocation uh we are not very interested in doing a macro allocation in other words we don't say oh we think oil is going to do well therefore let's go into oil companies what we do is say okay we like the economy uh the generally speaking certain sector is doing well but then we zero down on the companies in other words companies with a high return on Capital companies with low debt particularly in this environment uh the companies that we want to focus on and then we build the portfolio based on these specific parameters of course the result is that you get a pretty Diversified portfolio but a portfolio that's very different from the index and it also leads you to some of the smaller companies rather than some of the big cap companies that represent the index so that's yeah no got that Mark it's a pleasure great having you with us here on scene busy TV 18 and wish you all the best uh for 2023 and Beyond thank you very much uh for taking on the time thanks thanks very much okay Mobius bullish in India and uh it's the number two Market in this uh weightage in his portfolio uh perhaps soon to be number one as he pointed out well uh just a few names whether the market went up almost 50 60 points it's up 30 now so it's one uh that's one that's a Nifty eighteen thousand and twenty three Market breath has also come back into the positive so 1200 stocks are higher 800 stocks are lower and then look at these stocks I mean paytm is up about three and a half percent uh it's about 560 or so I mentioned bandhan earlier but Astra microwave it's a small defense name small cap name but seven and a quarter percent higher on Astra microwave so that is doing very well uh you've got ananth Raj which is up three percent mukund is up six percent now soba is a new addition into the mix two percent higher 578 and I'm only mentioning names with volumes gorgeous Industries is up three and a half three four percent and so on so forth in terms of off which is doing well on the downside fact is now completely lower it was up three percent it's down three percent and it's a top volume traded Name by the way that's fertilizer travel core Apollo a tires is down one and a half percent GIC re which kind of almost saw a re-rating 50 re-rating very quickly that's down about 2.6 UCO bank is something which is down about two percent uh and lots of these names you know well tracked well traded names Max Healthcare coaching Shipyard South Indian Bank all in the two percent Cut Zone uh at this point in time 35 points on the Nifty so not running away in either direction eighteen thousand and twenty seven we take a quick break here anush podar magic director and CEO at Bajaj electricals joints joints in for an outlook on demand and business later we also analyze expectations from the I.T Services space results start next week in our special segment quarter say quarter tuck and we'll have a purva Prasad of HTC Securities joining in to help us with that stay with us foreign
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