저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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Howard Marks는 탄핵이 이미 예상된 사안이라 시장 충격은 제한적이라고 본다. 대선 변수는 시장 친화성 여부가 핵심이다. 트럼프는 친기업 이미지로 상승을 이끌었고 재선 시 안도 랠리가 기대되며, 워런 같은 반기업 성향 후보가 당선되면 부정적 반응이 나올 수 있다고 본다. 그는 2016년 선거 직전 시장 예측이 빗나갔던 경험을 들어 단기 예측을 신뢰하지 않는다고 강조한다. 위워크 기업가치 470억 달러는 한 매수자의 오판일 뿐 사모시장 전반의 거품 신호는 아니라고 본다. 공모시장이 이를 거부한 것은 건전한 가치 감시 기능이라고 평가한다. 현재 시장은 거품이 아니며 과거 닷컴·서브프라임 같은 급락과는 비교되지 않는다. 밸류에이션은 높지만 과열 수준은 아니라는 입장이다. 다만 경기 확장과 강세장이 길어져 기대수익률이 낮아졌으므로, 3~6년 전보다 위험자산 비중을 줄이는 것이 합리적이라고 조언한다. 폭락을 단정하는 것은 아니라고 선을 긋는다. 자신의 예측도 믿지 않는다는 점에서 이번 발언은 방향성 전망보다는 위험 관리 관점의 조언에 가깝다.
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one of the people I just sat down with is Oaktree's howard marks the famed investor of forsen I began by asking him whether he was fearful of a market sell-off if we did see a presidential impeachment well number one impeachment shouldn't come as a surprise I think it's a foregone conclusion and number two given that if we assume that the market is intelligence then it shouldn't have an impact because if it is if it's a foregone conclusion today then when it's voted in in a week or two and it doesn't come as a surprise if it's in line with expectations things that happen in line with the cocaine should not have a profound impact on the level of the market but conviction is something that you'd be concerned about I'm not concerned about that because I don't think it'll happen you know they need 20 Republican votes to convict in the Senate and they don't have one and I can't imagine what's going to change in particular I think that all the evidence is on the table so how are you going to change 20 minds that said on the political front the 2020 election of course is only a year or so away but the front front of our minds for sure what's your take on the impact that might have on on markets well you know market wise it all depends on whether we have a president who's considered pro or anti business the market took off after Trump's election because he was judged to be pro market and he has behaved Perl business it so if he's re-elected people will continue to see him as pro-business they'll breathe the sigh of relief that he was reelected and and that'll probably be healthy for the market in this case it's not preordained like like the impeachment I think that that there is uncertainty as to the outcome if he's not elected then the question is who is Bloomberg would be judged as pro-business and the market would like that Biden moderate probably not a strong reaction Warren who certainly comes out as being anti business anti-wall Street I think that hold your hat Lee Koopman said 25% sell-off in that sense does that equate to hold your hat in in your mind well look a week before Donald Trump's election there were two things we were sure of Hillary would win and if Trump won the market would collapse so Donald won and the market went up and that tells me we don't know what's gonna happen so I don't I try not to make forecasts and I tend not to believe forecast including my own but I do think that that there would be an adverse reaction to a progressive president when we look at your broader industry there's been a lot of price pressure and traditional long-only asset management with that with the growth of indexes also more recently in the broker price wars that we've witnessed do you think that kind of price pressures coming to the credit space to the private equity space a lot depends on how it performs you know basically the people switched from active to passive management in equity funds because active wasn't working and it wasn't earning its high fees that's why the fees have come down I I think we're still in a rational market where things that make money for people will be compensated things that don't make money for people will not well when we consider we work as an example of a private market company a private market valuations do consider that as broadly actually representing a bubble in private market valuations or is it more of a special situation I think it was a special situation because I think that that valuation of forty seven billion dollars earlier this year was made by one one buyer and if that buyer miscalculated I don't think that's typical of broad trends I think it's very interesting to see that the you know the market one of the roles of the market is to serve as a vigilante and to reject or down price when it should the the fact that the public market rejected the private market valuation on we work I think was a very healthy development and it shows that the market is value sensitive that's a plus I know it's very hard to predict when the current cycle will end but do you ever think about how big the fallout will be this time round when it does end do you think that the sell-off when it comes will be bigger than a 8:09 on or well look if you've been around 20 years you may have been around 20 years I am NOT always investing you've seen two bubbles Tech and subprime and two crashes and you may tend to think as may your viewers that that's it bubbles and crashes but the truth is we have ups and downs we have bulls and bears and they're not all as profound as bubbles and crashes I don't see that we're in a bubble this time certainly nothing comparable 2:07 I don't think we're going to have a market decline comparable things are elevated but not crazily so but where we stand today worth taking a little bit of risk off the table well it depends on from what but I mean look everybody's made a lot of money the economic expansion and the bull market or old valuations are above average prospective returns are low there's a lot of uncertainty in the world and it strikes me that one should not have as much risk as one did three years ago or six years ago you've made a lot of money take some off the table that is not to say it's going down you know if I thought it was going down which I don't know how I would reach that conclusion I would say sell at all but I I never say that and you it's impossible to say that but I think there are reasons to have less risk going forward then you have had in recent years so taking a little bit less risk today perhaps than in recent years though all things considered relative to the last three or four investor letters he sent out I actually thought he was a little more constructive than perhaps he could have been his comments on we work perhaps an indication of that which I thought also was pretty interesting you
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