저자: MichaelBurry—제목기준,진행자미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
연준의 0.25%p 금리인하와 QE 재개로 달러 유동성이 늘어나지만 이는 금융 배관(funding) 붕괴의 땜질일 뿐이며, 증시 상승은 펀더멘털이 아닌 유동성 기대에 의존한다는 주장. 일자리 통계는 신뢰하기 어렵다고 비판하고, 오라클 급락이 나스닥 전반으로 번졌다고 언급. 진행자는 QQQ 숏 포지션이 손실 중이라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
Good morning, homeschoolers. Um, that was a pretty awesome quarter rate cut yesterday. Quarter percent. That was pretty phenomenal. I mean, when you lower rates by a quarter percent, you really expect stock to run like crazy. Uh, up about, I don't know, 1%. And then you know quantitative easing we're going to add back the do that again because market can't function without it basically read Michael Bur plumbing is broken the money markets all jammed up gummed up.
Every time they get a chance to open things back up they do. They're adding more money into the market. What happens to that incremental dollar that goes in $40 billion a quarter? I Jersey from Bloomberg said it was going to be 150 billion or so. Um, uh, what's his face over there at the the the gunlock Jeffrey Bills fan said, "Look, 200 billion and you know this is going to devalue the dollar.
I'm going to buy assets that are not dollar denominated." and he's making money doing that. And said the rest of the market, the rest of the world had a long way to go to catch up. The bond market is 300 trillion plus that we know of. We're not counting a lot of private stuff out there, which is more than the size of the stock market.
Considerably more. Um the economy woff was oh no not wickoff it was luck whatever that Howard Lutin Trump's bestie that just was on CNBC pumping stocks a minute ago said that you know we're going to grow at 6% everything's wonderful we need low rates and he's got a good point the United States is paying a higher rate than Italy than paying a higher rate than Portugal Ireland Greece case on and on.
So, who should get the lowest rate? It's the people with the highest credit. The people with the highest credit are the ones that create money in willy-nilly out of thin air. The United States of America. That's right. Drum pile. $40 billion a quarter going into the economy. That incremental dollar then goes into what?
Further down the curve, maybe that dollar is displaced and winds up into stocks. ultimately doesn't go into your pocket until people freak out. Then it winds back up pushing rates down possibly goes in the money market. Money market goes back in the T bills which they are buying right now. They could have started at about 3:35 this morning.
I watched the QQQ. It's at 62451 currently at 3:35 this morning. I was pretty happy with my short position. I'm cranky. I had a short position on Triple Q and it was looking to make me a lot of money this morning. Now it's looking to make me basically nothing. So yeah, I'm cranky. I'm going to have to go ahead and do something about that the morning.
Probably move that out and up and over and short long. Wait for a big move. They don't want a big move. I had the right position on the big move last time and I went into a meeting and I put a little hedge in anyway live and learn. So that incremental dollar winds back up in stocks, pushes stocks even higher.
And that's what makes people really excited about Trump and the economy because you cannot get a job. They're worried about jobs. They're directly analyzing that maybe there's less jobs going around that there's not 40,000 being added every month that maybe there's 20,000 being subtracted because the numbers always come out.
They get fixed. They get relooked at. And it's like, oh, the whole last year of Biden being in office after he left office, there was actually a subtraction of jobs not dishon the exact same number. No conspiracies here because none are necessary. It's right there in front of your face. The obvious lies that are spit out in you by the government statistics offices are just that we are no greater than the Soviet Union back in the old days with the propaganda stuff.
and it's one party or it's the other party and it doesn't matter. So, the numbers are completely pointless. What does matter is earnings and Oracle is down $29 on one set right now. And that contagion spread throughout the market last night like wildfire. Nine hours ago, I got a notification that QQQ that the NASDAQ the NASDAQ 100 is down 1.51%.
As it stands, it's rallied 1% since 3:35 this morning. I woke up doing a happy dance. Now I'm sitting here pissing my pants because that ain't no fun. Anyway, we're here to trade. We're here to learn. We're here to look at my stupid face and have a good time. And what else is going on out there? Michael Bur tore apart the Fed monetary issue.
I suggest you go read his latest post. regarding FT Alphavville's post actually and it really ties everything together and that the financial system is busted from a funding standpoint [clears throat] and people are on the verge of freaking out at all times, but they're rushing to buy these stocks because that's the story and that's where we're at.
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