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joining us this morning is Cowan senior research analyst Chris Sankar talk about the chips uh TSM Chris and just how much the sector has added in the last say month or so uh what do you think is happening overall before we get specifically to Taiwan semi okay sure hey thanks for having me call I would say that what you have seen so far is the market has been discounting negative news for a while and in the last three months or so what you've seen is semiconductor companies are coming out and acknowledging demand weakness and consequently you're seeing estimates get revised downwards for next year and that's kind of been a de-risking event for the staff so if you strip out the macro aside investors are willing to get into these names now that some of the fundamental headwinds are being removed as management acknowledges demand weakness and numbers get wasted right so so all the the price action that we've seen all year uh starting to get validated what do you think's behind a berkshire's bet and if you were to try to describe that both thesis uh would it align with your your coverage of the universe right now sure so we actually have a market perform rating on TSM um you know first and foremost best of breed company you know the best Foundry in the world they know how to execute really well they are one of the Leading Edge manufacturers and probably the only game in town for subplanometer today technology so from that standpoint I would definitely say that you know uh the company makes a lot of sense we definitely like the company not the stock uh from the stock standpoint if you look at how the stock has behaved in the last year year and a half you know the stock usually moves besides today because of uh Berkshire news historically has moved based on price action where the asps move higher and gross margins go higher now you're beginning to see into next year ASP is going to moderate and gross margins are kind of peaking so that's why we're more on the sidelines and prefer a better entry point but from a pure quality of company stand for it's definitely best of green we get more earnings for more within the sector this week and video which I don't think you cover but Applied Materials materials as well which I know you do I guess talk to me about some of those manufacturers the manufacturers have equipment to manufacture the chips yeah absolutely Morgan so I think you know when the other peers which is asml KLA land research reported last month you kind of saw do you risking for semi equipment also where company management came and said next year capex is going to be down um and that is basically you know you're kind of going into a cyclical downturn and the same thing happened where numbers got dearest and investors started getting the semi Cup equipment I would say since mid-october they relatively outperformed the market kind of like the same thing thesis as in semi so I expect the same thing from Applied Materials on Thursday when they report people expect weakness but that's already in the start of this point okay the idea of supply chain diversification whether it's the ch ief the chips act here or the fact the semiconductor manufacturing as well is this does this buoy these names over the coming years despite the cyclicality absolutely I think if you document this company management they'll acknowledge it too you know I would say that uh the localization of supply chain as you mentioned you know that's in U.S Europe or even Japan is actually a huge benefit for semicab equipment you know when these transitions happen it's never seamless there's definitely going to be a lot of inefficiencies but those inefficiencies are actually positive for equipment companies because you tend to buy a lot more equipment so I think over the next three to five years I would say as these Government funding starts rolling out uh and the build out of Fabs across the globe starts happening it's actually a net positive for Semiconductor equipment companies uh and speaking of that as well Chris um you know the president and president XI A lot's been written past 24 hours about their meeting and to the degree it was constructive uh do we think this week will Mark a point a turning point in managing that kind of economic cooperation or competition and their access to companies uh like asml you know um it's tough to say to be quite honest I mean obviously last month we saw U.S put export controls on certain specific Chinese semiconductor companies and the Really impacted the U.S and equipment companies not an asml which is based in Netherlands or even a turkey electron in Japan but you'll still see some contagion effect because if those Chinese customers cannot get U.S tools they might not even necessarily need to buy uh the non-us tools so you definitely see some of their impact it's very hard to handicap how these political things would play out I mean on the point of time on semi you know investors do ask once in a while what happens with China Taiwan happens you know I think it's a very hard question to answer because nobody knows of the timeline for that but if you strip aside the politics I think and some of the macro related concerns I would say a lot largely many of the negative news in semi semi-equipment land has been already like discounted in the stocks right uh obviously a tough space to read right now Chris appreciate it very much good to see you talk soon I hope thanks for having me
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