저자: CanaryInvest · 외국인
요약 보기
SOXX와 필라델피아 반도체지수(SOX)의 채널 구조를 분석. SOXX는 단기채널 상단 접근 중이며 돌파 시 $540, 추가 돌파 시 $600 가능하나 상승 탄력은 약할 것으로 봄. 프리마켓 하락이 이어지면 중기채널 하단 $508, 최악의 경우 $450까지 하락 가능성 제시. SOX는 이미 단기채널 상단에 도달해 프리마켓 약세로 되돌림 후 추가 하락 확률이 높다고 판단. 신용 포지션은 점진적 일부 청산 고려, 단기채널 상단 부근 익절 제시, 거시 환경도 불리하여 신중 대응 권고.
다듬은 글
Greetings to everyone. This video is about the semiconductor index, and before we begin, please take a moment to familiarize yourself with the Canary investment style, which is something to keep in mind during this review. Let's get down to business. First, I will show my year-to-date profitability for 2026 .
I track it weekly, and lately I've been doing it daily. Currently, my year-to-date return is 3.9%. Now let's move directly to the graphs. This is the SOXX semiconductor index. I mostly use channel lines. So, on the screen, the black line represents the medium-term channel, and the blue line represents the short-term channel.
If you look at the price dynamics, it continued to move inside the medium-term channel, bounced off the lower border, made a significant increase, and has now returned inside the medium-term channel. It is currently trading just within this short-term channel. Let's zoom in for a better look. This is what it looks like up close.
Currently, we see that the price is approaching testing the upper boundary of the short-term channel. If it reaches this level, it will likely touch the mark of around $540. However, if it breaks this short-term channel, the path to $600 will be open . But to reach $600, it would need to rise about 15% above its current level.
And at $600, it would be less than 10% off its absolute all-time high. I don't think it will move upwards with that much force. And even if it breaks through, instead of testing the upper medium-term channel, it seems to me that it will most likely use the short-term channel as support and move along these lines.
However, the premarket is already open, and the share price is already falling. If the price action follows the premarket and the downtrend continues during the main session, it will likely cross this black line. If it reaches the medium-term channel, it will likely touch the level around $508. And if it doesn't manage to bounce right there, the likelihood of it going through and going down like this increases significantly.
In the worst case scenario, we should also be prepared for the possibility of a drop to $450. Of course, semiconductor stocks have enormous volatility and are extremely difficult to predict. So once the main market opens, the situation could completely change, the price could bounce back and go up again.
Moving on, let's look at the Philadelphia Semiconductor index instead of the SOX. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is slightly different from the SOX ETF. The underlying assets also have some differences. Looking at this chart, the red line marks the long-term channel . But since the price has already confidently broken through it , we shouldn't worry about it .
If you look at the intermediate channel, it looks a little different than the previous one, doesn't it? Significant parts of the chart go beyond the intermediate channel. However, in the big picture, it is similar in terms of rebounding from the intermediate channel structure. We also have a short-term channel here.
Let's take a closer look at it. We're getting closer— here he is. Unlike the SOX, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index already reached the absolute upper limit of its short-term channel yesterday. So, if the price continues to rise, it will have to break through this level. But since the price is already falling in the premarket, looking at the chart, we can say that it looks weaker than what we saw in SOXX earlier.
Therefore, if the price rolls back, even in the event of an attempted rebound, the probability of its further decline is high. And if a sharp sell-off begins, the probability of touching this black line increases, perhaps even today. Because of this, it is worth being careful now. If any of you hold credit positions, a gradual partial closure seems like a smart move.
However, since the price had already dropped quite a bit in the premarket by the time this video was released, I can't strongly recommend it. Ultimately, the price may still recover. If the main session starts with a strong reversal from the opening, taking profits near the upper border of this short-term channel looks like a prudent approach.
Given that various macroeconomic conditions also look unfavorable in addition to these chart patterns, please trade with caution. If you are interested in semiconductor stocks , instead of entering right now, it would be more appropriate to wait for a better moment, for example, a retest of this particular zone. Thank you.
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