저자: 미상 · 외국인
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드러켄밀러의 투자 7원칙 소개: 메가트렌드 조기 포착(엔비디아 AI, 비만약), 2~4년 보유 관점, 분석과 직관 병행, 기술적·기본적 분석 병행, 자기확신과 실패 복기, 멘토 활용, 거시경제·정보 활용. 과거 사례로 1992년 파운드 공매도, 2007년 부동산 버블 포착 언급. 특정 자산의 향후 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
Stanley Duken Miller is one of the super investors who has achieved one of the best records as a manager. Between 1981 and 2010, he achieved an average annual return of 30% with no losing years. He is also known for betting against the pound in 1992 along with George Soros achieving profits of $1 billion in just a few days.
Currently his family fund the Dukane family has investments in lesserk known but highly promising companies such as Nata, Deva Pharmaceutical, Kang, Woodward, Philip Morris, Coherent and Mercado Libé among others. In this video, we will try to identify seven principles that have led him to become one of the best investors in history, even surpassing the legendary Warren Buffett.
The first principle is to identify major trends and invest before others. Duken Miller explains how to identify trends such as artificial intelligence which he capitalized on with his investment in Nvidia. He observed that young analysts were switching their cryptocurrencies to the artificial intelligence sector and the young analysts who work with him were increasingly talking about that topic and they began to mention Nvidia.
But while investment ideas sometimes come from casual conversations, Stanley is beginning to delve deeper into trending topics with potential. Another trend he was able to identify was weight loss drugs. And he realized the market potential for these drugs as it was easy to see how the average American wanted to lose weight without exercising.
And they also understood that the drug works if taken continuously. Duken Miller believes that markets are becoming smarter and faster with all the technology and communications available today. So when you hear about an investment opportunity, it's sometimes better to take positions quickly because if you spend two or 3 months analyzing the asset, you may miss part of the movement and the opportunity.
But those early positions, while they may be important, shouldn't be completely decisive. It's advisable to thoroughly analyze the investment thesis afterward. If a mistake was made, the position will be sold quickly. However, if on the other hand, a detailed analysis reveals that the decision was a good one, the position will be decisively increased.
In his investment style, Duken Miller seeks to build a thesis which possibly no one initially builds and allows him to buy at good prices, taking into account certain assumptions. If you notice that the thesis begins to evolve and other people join in, you'll most likely see favorable momentum, that's when you should increase your bet significantly.
George Soros was very good with that strategy. The second principle is to look for investments that can be sustained for 2 to four years. Unlike many people, Duken Miller doesn't invest to sell positions within a few days. Rather, he seeks investments to hold for 2 to 4 years. Stanley tries to visualize what will happen in a sector or a company in 18 or 24 months, not making decisions based solely on the current outlook.
In a way, when investing, one tries to put together a puzzle trying to visualize the future where one can have a different perspective than that of others. If one manages to get the purchase prices right, the future values will reflect whether the assumptions were correct. When Stanley chooses an investment theme, he will try to explore the concentric circles and the dominoes that can fall around him.
The third principle of investing is to consider both analysis and intuition in decision-m with a competitive component. Duken Miller explains that while he takes into account the analysis of different data in his decision-m, he also takes his intuition into account. Stanley acknowledges that he doesn't like to lose and that he's competitive and this is possibly one of the reasons why his results are so good.
While his competition isn't against another person, he is competing against the entire pool of opportunities. If he had a good number of opportunities and missed them, he would be disappointed in himself. If he managed to gain 20% but could have gained 50%, he would be disappointed with his results.
This competitiveness leads them to seek out opportunities and do a variety of things. Duken Miller does his best not to make emotional decisions, but he understands that investing has a strong emotional component. He admits that in 1999 he took a sbatical because that year due to the 16% losses he was emotionally devastated having allowed himself to be swept away by the crowd despite identifying the overvaluation of the so-called dotcom companies.
Just as in a game of chess, Duken Miller believes that the best player is the machine combined with man, the same is true in investing. While both the machine and data are necessary, adding human intuition allows for improved results as information needs to be understood to understand when the signals are real and when they are driven solely by algorithms and robots.
The fourth principle is to consider technical and fundamental analysis. In his analysis, while he takes fundamentals into account, Duken Miller also uses technical analysis. For example, in the case of the analysis for buying and selling Nvidia shares, he considered its price charts. He also analyzed the semiconductor industry, understanding that it had been cyclical since the 1970s.
He also learned that the company had 4,000 software engineers who could add significant value to its products. Regarding technical indicators, Duken Miller reviews the relative strength indicator or RSI, which assesses the speed and change in a stock's price movements to identify trend changes. Another technical indicator he uses is the standard deviation of an asset, which assesses the dispersion of a stock's price relative to its average value.
He also considers correlations between assets which allow him to identify whether two assets are moving relative to each other or conversely whether they are moving in opposite directions. But Stanley is aware of the changes that occur with the results of the analysis as he explains how what worked a few years ago may not work today.
And this is a challenge for him. If you don't recognize this change, you may get trapped like other investors. For example, in the case of currencies, a shift occurred when they began to be traded according to the current account, then traded according to interest rate differentials and a few years ago traded according to a country's positive and negative risk.
Understanding these changes under which assets operate is fundamental because many of the analysis algorithms are based on historical models and data. But these changes can make many of the factors taken into account no longer appropriate as they were relevant in a previous regime rather than the new one.
In these analyses, Duken Miller even admits that he is willing to buy a stock for a higher price than he previously sold it for. But in addition to using both types of analysis, Stanley also explains how his results are largely due to his deep respect for the markets. Dr. Miller has invested in supercomputers that send him signals when something important happens in the market.
But regarding decisions, while he takes the information from these computers into account, he analyzes it to make the final decision. In fact, he comments on how he monitors several machines for one or two years to evaluate whether the decisions they make are correct. As it seems, there are correlations that don't make much sense, and that can be dangerous.
The fifth principle of investing is having self-confidence to make decisions. Dereken Miller explains how when you've done something well for decades, you can make decisions that while they may involve initial losses can lead to profits later on. He believes that while in some cases you have to be stubborn, other times you have to be willing to change.
When investing, it's essential to be open-minded and humble because to be able to change your mind, you shouldn't be arrogant. Stanley explains that in investing, the important thing is to earn enough when you're right to compensate for what you lose when you're wrong. Duken Miller believes we must analyze failures to understand why they happened and learn from them rather than pretending they didn't happen, trying not to repeat them.
The sixth principle for investing well is having a mentor who knows the market. Duken Miller explains how he learned a lot from Soros. Lessons such as not being afraid of portfolio concentration and exploring other asset classes. Another of Soros's teachings is that when you have conviction in an investment, you should bet big.
Stanley believes that you have to learn to establish the relationship between risk and reward in an investment which sometimes seems unclear in the stock markets but in reality it is. Duken Miller analyzes the relationship between risk and reward. And in times when the risk doesn't outweigh the reward, you should become more cautious.
When making an investment, you should constantly evaluate what could go wrong, but you should also evaluate the opposite. That is, what could go right. Draen Miller recommends that if someone is passionate about the world of investing, they shouldn't pursue an MBA, but rather seek out a mentor to learn as much as possible from them.
In addition to continually expanding one's knowledge and keeping an open mind, the seventh principle of investing is to consider information as an input for trading the market. In his daily routine, Dereken Miller religiously reviews the markets, scanning media and newspapers such as Bloomberg, the Financial Times, and the New York Times, as well as news about the markets in Japan.
Duken Miller is also intimately familiar with the macroeconomic situation in the United States and the major world economies. He monitors the Fed's interest rate movements, inflation levels, economic growth, and other macroeconomic variables. He is also well-versed in the commodities market and the reasons for the rise or decline of these assets.
Thanks to his knowledge of macroeconomics, Stanley has also been able to take advantage of the currency markets, as in the case of the famous operation with George Soros, in which they earned more than $1 billion by betting against the pound sterling and in favor of the German mark. This transaction was achieved because Duken Miller had studied the economic situation in Germany and England, identifying that the pound was overvalued against the German mark.
He was also certain that the central bank or the Bundes Bank was the most important institution in Germany and would not allow inflation to run rampant. Having an open mind also allowed him to identify the 2007 real estate bubble. He analyzed the real estate market and identified a trend of average annual price increases of 3%.
But in the four or 5 years before the crisis, prices soared above the previous trend. This hypothesis was ultimately confirmed by an analyst who was very good with numbers who reiterated to him that the mortgages being issued were not sustainable. So Stanley was able to take precautions in time. Although 2006 was frustrating because due to his defensive positions, his competitors made huge profits while he made marginal gains.
But in 2007 when the market exploded, his positions were very well oriented to withstand the crisis. Duken Miller also knows in detail the fundamentals of the companies he invests in, as well as their valuations to determine whether a company is undervalued or overvalued. Tracking different types of assets allows him to trade five or six different assets to take advantage of opportunities.
But understanding all this information requires many hours a week. So investing well requires a passion for this activity. Thanks to his disciplined analysis and research, Duken Miller is able to identify market cycles. He understands that stock market lows occur during recessions with dismal earnings and highs occur at the height of consumer confidence.
But the world changes and change is only perceived if you open your mind to how things can be different whether for better or worse. He also employs young analysts who are constantly seeking information to analyze and offering new perspectives. Remember that in the video description you'll find the link to the best course for learning technical and fundamental analysis for investing in stocks.
You'll also find the link to the best platform for buying stocks on the stock exchange regulated in the United States. If you enjoyed the video, give us a like, subscribe to the channel, and share the content.
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