저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
사회자 Kevin은 10년물 금리 하락으로 부동산 레버리지 과열 우려가 있으나 주식 시장 열기는 아직 본격화되지 않았다고 본다. 미시간대 소비자심리지수 급등과 고용 지표(비농업 고용 0.4%, 임금 상승)를 근거로 연착륙 시나리오(골디락스)를 제시하고, 금리 인하 후 2025년 초 유포리아 재진입을 예상한다. 샴 룰은 아직 경기침체 신호가 아니라고 본다. 기존 입장은 현 시점 매수·축적을 권하고 유포리아 구간에서는 일부 익절을 권한다.
다듬은 글
Time to curb our enthusiasm. And I say that because, you know, the 10-year Treasury yield dropping 90 basis points, from five to 4.10, has made people go crazy again in some real estate markets. As for some real estate markets, we will, of course, soon talk about jobs, stocks, and so on. But in some of these markets, people are starting to take out expensive loans again, and they have been doing so for some time.
They take these 15% loans as collateral and hope that if they buy something now in December, they can sell it for 20% more in March. I think this is an unhealthy situation. It's like stock memes, only in real estate. And part of me is just upset because people are paying ridiculous prices for certain properties and it's like it's normal.
I will continue to buy outside the market or through other means. The market is full of profitable offers. But I'm paying attention to this because I see signs of danger and risk in it. It's like when you see meme stocks skyrocket, like that beloved company we blew up—Shot. We analyzed this company during a live broadcast for course participants 2 or 3 days ago, and we simply crushed it.
I mean, this is just a garbage company. Complete garbage. Let me explain. If you don't know anything about this company: what do amusement park suppliers have in common with women's health pharmaceuticals, cannabis, and detox drinks? Yes. This is what this company is. Of course? This is a joke. So, in short , let's forget about it for a minute.
It's great when enthusiasm remains restrained. You know, as an optimistic person, I don't really want crazy euphoria because it makes it harder to buy stocks or real estate at good prices. That doesn't make it impossible, it just makes things more difficult. Let's be frank. Anyone who says that working when everyone is in euphoria is not more difficult is deceiving themselves.
It seems easier because you buy, then the prices go up, and you feel like you did everything right, but you're just part of the mania, right? This mania is already starting to show in the data we received this morning. Look at this. This is the University of Michigan sentiment index. And these numbers are just crazy.
You've probably seen them already, so I won't repeat what you've likely already heard. But what I really want to draw your attention to are two things. First, this is preliminary data. So, there's a lot of volatility here. Every 2 weeks, the University of Michigan publishes either preliminary or final results .
This is preliminary data, which is just a way of saying, “Hey, these are just our initial thoughts right now. "That could change." And that's how it is. This is really changing a lot. But the delta here is just crazy. The difference, or the rate of change that we're seeing in sentiment, is not only an increase from last month, which we expected, but the way that sentiment has jumped is actually very good.
I think what happened was this: the events in Israel made people think, “Oh no, the world is ending. We are heading towards World War III." Bill Ackman says rates will exceed 5%. We will have the highest stakes in history. And it was a very dark time . Remember October? Stocks have been falling for 3 months in a row, a very gloomy outlook on inflation and interest rate expectations, and individual consumer inflation expectations have jumped, you know, above 4%.
Last time they were 4.5%. They now account for 4.3%. All of these numbers adjusted almost instantly , which is incredible because a lot of the data that we're getting really indicates that we're probably in 19..., I'll write down those dates because they're very important. We're probably, and I want you to study them, we're probably somewhere in 1952, 1983, 1994 right now.
These are probably the moments we are in now, maybe even like in 2003. And you'll see it in the data if you look closely. You have volatility in unemployment rates. We will touch on them. You are coming out of a recession. You are coming out of high inflation, uncertainty is still high. I just don't think it's good to instantly go back to euphoria.
Because then we will create a "bubble" again. I actually think the catalysts for the bubble are quite strong. Imagine , for example, the Fed cuts rates by 1% next year and starts cutting them more just because inflation is falling, not because of a recession, right? I think we will fall into euphoria.
I mean, I think there's a chance we'll get prices like 2021 again, especially adjusted for inflation. Mainly because the Fed will stop sucking out money. Profitability in money markets will fall sharply. When money market yields start to fall back to 3% or below 3%, people will say, you know, imagine that yields are 2.9% and inflation is 2%.
People will ask: why do I even keep money in the market? For the sake of 0.9%? They will immediately return to action. We'll go straight back to euphoria. And this will make it more difficult to build your portfolio. I firmly believe that now, and I've been saying this for quite some time, at least a year, now is the perfect time to build.
To build and buy. Because when the madness starts again, we'll look back and say, damn , I wish I had bought during the uncertainty. Remember, uncertainty is opportunity. But in any case, when we look at these periods, these were times when we were not heading for a major recession. I mean, recession is always ahead, you know, later, like in 1955-56, or '85, no, not so much '85.
In '85, you had inflation expectations that started to fall rapidly, which was great. The Fed has begun to realize this. It took years for people to move away from inflated inflation expectations and for their expectations to actually decline. But yeah, you know, '87, '89, volatility, 1991, and of course, the dot-com bubble.
But, you know, after 2003, we had another 5 years ahead of us. So, you know, there's always going to be another recession. I'm not here to say that there wo n't be another recession. I'm here to say that things are so balanced right now that there's a chance we're getting ready for euphoria again. And, don't get me wrong, I will take advantage of this euphoria.
But I also want it to serve as a reminder to lock in some of the profits during the next euphoric upswing. I wouldn't be surprised if when we get the first rate cut, say in March or May. Maybe in May. Let's see what happens with inflation. You know, on Tuesday, obviously, inflation data. Then we will get inflation data.
I wouldn't be surprised if I see some euphoria early next year. Oh, and it's going to start to build into the price very slowly, and then people will remember, "Damn, that bottomed out so quickly ." But, be that as it may, these numbers are absolutely incredible, although they are starting to seem almost too optimistic.
It makes me think, because we were looking at Delta this morning, and they're like, "Oh, people are spending money like crazy." JetBlue was n't so pleased. JetBlue says, "Yeah, not for us, you know, we don't see people spending money like crazy." But Delta says, " There is no slowdown." "Everyone spends, Frank, everyone spends." Okay.
So let's look at another graph. This is a graph of inflation expectations. Obviously, we see it bounced a little bit after the employment report this morning. Today's employment report is quite interesting. I think we need to understand what's going on with this employment report. So, in this report, as we see, the trend in the labor market is clearly downward.
The long-term trend is about 180,000. Over the past 12 months, it has been about 240,000 . We got 199, which was a little above expectations. The big problem was the 0.4% growth per month. And there are certain nuances here, because yes, we had a 0.4% increase in salaries, but employees from higher- paying industries also returned to work.
Many of those automakers were on strike. We had a labor lawyer on our stream this morning . Let me remind you, I'm on the air every day, absolutely free, at 5:25, when the market opens. I invite you to join the We Kevin Live channel. Link below. But, whatever it was, the labor lawyer said that usually after a strike you get back pay for the time you've been on and you go back to work with a higher salary.
So we're all guessing and trying to calculate whether there's a chance that this is what distorted the monthly growth rate by 0.1% above expectations. However, this is very difficult to determine, because with a workforce of 168 million, even a change of 30,000 jobs makes little difference. Even if you take large changes in hourly pay, you see a change.
So, I think it's probably too hard to tell between seasonal adjustments and all the other craziness that's going on, how much the return of striking workers has had an impact on this wage increase. I guess we'll just have to look at the 3-6 month average for wage growth dynamics. The more important indicator for this economy will actually be the consumer price index, which will be released on Tuesday.
So, remember, compared to the previous month, the employment data looks very, very fake. We also have some pretty interesting indicators. We have n't talked about this before , but there is a so-called " Saam rule" for predicting a recession in the US. It takes employment data to predict recessions: when the Saam rule rises to the level that marks a recession, it often signals the beginning of one.
In fact, almost always. You've had a recession since 1950, except for one false positive in the late 1950s. 1959. But now the Saam rule is a way of saying, " Hey, when unemployment seems to be rising by more than half a percentage point on a three-month moving average , that could be a sign that a recession is coming ." This is an attempt to turn lagging employment data into leading data.
And the mitigation that we're seeing today is actually a way to reduce some of that risk. You can see it right here. Here is the Saami rule closer. You can see that there is a slight downward trend there. But, obviously, this is a rather volatile indicator. However, if you look at other recessions. Usually, even at the beginning of an approaching recession, we already have a confident positive trend.
Very rarely does the indicator actually go down. You see, there was a slowdown here in 2008 , but this is a steady upward trend that accelerates before a recession. This is not exactly what we see now. In fact, what we are observing is more reminiscent of the situation in 2011. You see, it becomes positive and then slows down.
You also saw this in 2003. That's why I assumed that maybe we were closer to the dates I gave earlier. By the way, you can check this out. Find the “real-time Sahm Rule ” from the St. Louis Fed. You can find this graph. We are much closer to 2003, 2011 , which are simply the post-crisis period. And that makes sense.
I mean, look at the mid-80s here. These are post-crisis movements. Look at the year 77. You still have 4-5 years before a recession. You get this growth and then it drops again. So, this positive movement that we're seeing now is not necessarily a problem. You know, when we really get into this uptrend, that's an early indicator.
And this rule worked for Sam back in early 2007-8. I mean, it started operating in November 2007 and lasted about a year. And then it just became parabolic. So, you had a leading indicator there. Look at the " dot-com bubble." You had a leading indicator for almost all of 2001 before the parabolic rise began in late 2001-2002.
So this is a tool worth considering. So, you know what exactly I'm looking for? Well, obviously the CPI data is the most important. This is the best scenario for Goldilocks, right? When employment remains high and wage growth is 3%. This is the goal: can we reach an average level of 3 %? And of course, we want GDP to remain positive, right?
This is the goal for Goldilocks, and this is what we are seeing now. The question is, will this continue under the pressure of higher interest rates? Let's take a look at Nick Tee, who provides us with this aggregate salary data along with great graphs, as always. Look at this. Aggregate weekly wage payments in the private sector.
There are both year-on-year and quarterly annualized indicators. We're seeing them return to pre-pandemic levels , which is just wonderful. This is the direction we want to move in terms of salary growth itself. We need a few more months to see whether the 0.4% figure will hold, or whether we will return to 0.2% or 0.3%.
Again , we aim for an average salary growth rate of 3% per year. The 4% wage growth is the lowest annualized rate of this entire cycle . However, again, it was the monthly figure that had people a little worried. We received 0.2% per month, which may also be due to strikes. We don't know exactly how these seasonal adjustments work.
These are all things worth taking into account. As for the catalyst, the monthly CPI is expected to remain unchanged on Tuesday, at 0%. Personally, it doesn't matter to me whether the month-over-month total is zero or 3.1%. It would be good if it came out to 2.9%, that would be great. But I really want to see the housing sector have more of an impact on this.
And I expect zero to be two tenths. Regarding the month-to-month baseline, I want 0.2 instead of 0.3. This would be much closer to a positive scenario . But then again, will this lead to euphoria? Who knows. Some will say: "I'll just look at the Big Seven, the euphoria is already there." But again, if you look at the "Big Seven", there is one company that does not cause euphoria.
And it's called Tesla. So pay attention to her . So, those are some of my thoughts. Summarizing the practical implications for this. I would say we are probably at a point where many will start to move from money markets to stocks as this data becomes increasingly soft and we are proving that we are in a situation like the mid-90s, 2003 or 2011 .
You know, in 2011, everyone was worried about a double-dip recession. It was the best time to buy. So, of course, I'm not a "bear", but I also want to be realistic: betting on mass euphoria can work, but I would at least write it down somewhere, for example, next to the Forex cycle—lock in profits. This is my opinion.
Anyway, thanks for watching. See you in the next issue. Good luck. Why don't you advertise these things we were told about? I don't think anyone else knows about this. Well, let's take your example. Kevin Pafr.
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