저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연방은행(Federal Bank)은 송금 시장 점유율과 머니그램 제휴를 근거로 긍정적이나, 주봉 차트상 추세 전환 확인 전까지는 장기 투자자에게 관망을 권함. 주제1: 라케시 준준왈라 지분 - 연방은행 지분 약 3%(약 6,600만 주) 보유 언급, 기관(HDFC생명, LIC 등) 보유도 언급 - 종목 가격 약 45루피 언급 주제2: 사업 및 제휴 - 머니그램과 제휴, 송금 사업 확대 기대 - 인도 송금 시장(약 20억 달러) 내 연방은행 점유율 약 15% 주장 주제3: 실적 - 매출이 2008년 약 300억 원 수준에서 지속 증가했다고 설명 - 순이익 흐름에 큰 감소 없었다고 언급 주제4: 밸류에이션 - 장부가치 대비 할인 거래(PBR 1 미만 취지), 현 시점 조정 구간으로 판단 주제5: 기술적 분석 - 월봉상 과거 조정 반등 패턴 설명 - 헤드앤숄더 형태 가능성 및 하방 이탈 시 큰 하락 우려 제기 - 특정 지지선(약 128 부근) 이탈 언급, 현 주봉상 긍정 신호 없음 주제6: 투자 전략 - 주봉에서 긍정 신호 확인 전까지 장기 투자자는 관망 권장 - 저점 매수는 위험하다고 경고 주제7: 리스크 - 지지선 붕괴 시 추가 하락, 시장 전반 조정 가능성
다듬은 글
사용자가 힌디어 제목과 채널 정보가 붙은 영문 자동자막 원문을 주고, 읽기 좋은 글로 다듬어 달라고 했습니다. 프롬프트는 한국어로 되어 있지만 요청 자체는 원문 편집이므로, 원문 언어(영어)로 다듬어 출력하는 것이 맞습니다. 다만 제목 등 힌디어 부분은 참고용입니다.
Wait, I should note that the transcript is garbled (typical auto-caption errors). I need to correct obvious misrecognitions while keeping content. Let me produce a cleaned version in English, following the rules: first-person, keep numbers, fix obvious errors (e.g., "Federal Bank" is consistent, "MoneyGram" ok, "Liberation" maybe "Liberation" → unclear; "Rohtak rise" → likely "Rohtak" wrong; keep uncertain as is), remove filler, add ### headings per topic, paragraphs 300–600 chars.
I'll produce it now, being conservative with uncertain words.
Hello, hello, hello friends, welcome to the Voice Mail playlist.
This is a share priced at only 45 rupees, and the most important thing is that 6 crore shares are in the name of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala ji. That is a very good sign, and you should feel very positive about it. But even more important is that this company holds a huge share of a market worth only two billion dollars, a market of 11 or 21 million dollars. Let's talk about that now.
Yes, I am talking about remittances here. Those of you who deal in dollars will have understood that remittance means money sent from outside into India. When your rupee arrives from abroad, the bank converts it and charges a small fee on top, whatever the amount may be. You must have seen that whether it is ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, or Axis Bank, every bank does that work. The last stage is the office in the market. Which company holds a small share but of the remittance market? Which is the biggest in the market? Let's look at it in detail: technical, fundamental, economic, and the big partnership. We'll cover it in a short video.
Before we move ahead, if you have not subscribed to this channel, please subscribe quickly and press the bell button so you get notifications. You can also join as a member by clicking the join button.
First, I'll show you the company: here we are talking about Federal Bank Limited. When we talk about the shares of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala ji, you should first see that he holds 6 crore 60 lakh shares. Calculate it: that holding is three percent. Let me show you, here in a little more detail. If it's not clear, I'll zoom in. By zooming, you can see the government holds 6 crore 60 lakh 21 thousand 600 shares, and his holding is three percent.
Apart from this, many other companies operate here, such as HDFC Life Insurance, Fidelity Investments, and Aditya Birla Sun Life, which has potential. Then there is General Insurance Corporation and LIC policy, whose leverage is 4.63 points. All of them have good holdings, as do L&T Mutual Fund and Vanguard Emerging Markets Fund, which has a very strong holding. We'll learn a lot more in detail, and we'll understand them completely by going through the first and second parts. After that we'll talk about the rest.
Let's understand the technical and fundamentals. First, let's understand the stock and see what important work it has done today. Federal Bank has tied up with MoneyGram as of today. MoneyGram, the global leader in proper P2P payments and money transfers, has joined hands with the bank's payment system, and the MoneyGram partnership has definitely been announced.
According to the World Bank data on remittances, if we talk about the one to two billion US dollar remittance market in India, Federal Bank has about a 15% market share here. So the tie-up with MoneyGram is a huge booster for the bank, and that is why there is positivity around it.
Now look at this. The share price saw a huge jump after the news. If you try to understand it, you've seen an overview of this kind with MoneyGram. You knew about Federal Bank that its market capitalization of roughly 9,000 crore rupees had seen a big decline for some time, and that effect has been felt directly. Look at it: the stock trades below a book value of 60, so for every 5 rupees you earn one rupee. Earning 5 rupees on a 500-rupee stock is very good. Look at the rest: you can see the profit growth. There is no lack in the fundamentals, so just look at it and understand it.
Right now is a time of correction, and the book value is good, and at the current price there is a lot of appetite. Let's look at that in detail. The focus is on profitability: how much revenue is being generated, and how much profit is being earned. That's the main important thing.
Let's look at the profit. In 2008, revenue was about 300 crore, which is a big number, and it kept rising to 3,336 and then to 30 thousand. There has been no decrease; it has increased continuously, which is a good thing. Try to understand the net profit: there are no lumps in it, and you will see that clearly in between. Try to understand the 600 crore figure for Federal Bank at this time, and the bank account, and you'll see a tremendous delivery of almost 1 crore in business. From a long-term perspective, that is important. When I talk to you, I try to explain it clearly so that you can take advantage of it.
Now look at the monthly chart and try to understand where the correction is coming from. The reaction of correction is like the reaction of correction. You will see the rise from here, then a correction that continues to some extent, with support continuing and a rise coming again. In 2014 there was a big fall, but the resolution happens here. You'll understand this when the resolution is happening, after it gets close. This point is the second entry point, and it is free. As things turn red, when the correction comes again you can see how fast it fell, and at any time you can buy at the bottom.
If you buy at this level, no matter how good the share is, the chances of a wrong decision are very high. Someone can buy at this price, and who knows with whom we shared it. If you see recovery and a change, and the correction ends, only then do you get an entry opportunity. You got a right opportunity here. This correction will come again, and after it there is an opportunity at a lower point.
Now let me clear the picture and explain it. Here there is a decline; look again, second. Understand that this is the first, and after this a lower high is formed. If the lower lock is broken, the market falls rapidly. Look at this line I am drawing. Take these points, and I can see it forming a head and shoulders pattern. If it breaks, there will be a big pain. First there was a hockey-stick series; then a higher low formed here. But as this trend line broke, look at how big the pressure is in front of you. It is very strong. My expectation was that there would be support somewhere around this level, or the old support would hold, and it did get tested. But I still think the pain should end.
The market needs a turnaround right now. If the decline ends, I can expect a rebound. Here, I can see nothing surprising in the 2025 range. If it breaks the bottom, this is a very macro range, and the book value is high enough to suggest resistance.
Nothing is impossible in the stock market; understand this. Let's look at how the price is currently moving, and look carefully at this point. There was a decline, so I would say the collection looked like it was rolling over, which you can see on the weekly chart.
Look at this line: the correction looked like it was rolling, which is a very good and positive thing. You can see a higher low here. After that, the important point is this: if it breaks the low, I was seeing a clear break here, and if there was a big investor at this level, he must have exited. Look at how clear the signal is: this shoulder formation is forming, and the series of higher lows is starting. This is the exit point. If I talk about it, this is the point of hitting unity.
In October 2018 an attempt was made to recover, and we did recover well. But if it repeats the same pattern, it again comes down from the same place. At the present time, the situation is not over. A big investor should never buy at the bottom. Look at that correction: it had fallen below the 128 area, and whoever bought at this level bought on strength. There was a rise, and an opportunity for re-entry came almost at the same point, which was nearly free. Try to understand things this way: small things like these give you benefit in the long run.
Right now there is no positivity in this stock. The business is intact, but if there is no positivity on the weekly chart, it's better for long-term investors to wait a bit. There's no problem with the video. I hope you liked it, so please share it and like it. If you have not subscribed to the channel, subscribe quickly and press the bell button, and you'll get notifications. Thank you for watching my video.
Comments 0