🙌 Chamath Palihapitiya 🙌 Hyperinflation & Bitcoin-🙌

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결론: 연준이 인플레이션을 방치하는 사이 자본시장이 먼저 인플레 기대를 반영해 성장주가 급락하고 있으며, 바이든 정부의 과도한 재정지출과 세금 인상이 경기회복을 해칠 것이라는 주장. 자본시장과 정부 인식의 괴리: 자본시장은 인플레이션 기대를 가격에 반영하는 반면, 연준은 대응하지 않고 있다고 주장. 2월 10년물 금리가 0.75%에서 1.75%로 급등한 사례를 제시하며 그때 연준이 '문제없다'고 한 것을 비판. 인플레이션 근거 수치: 상품가격 50% 상승, 목재 등 공급 부족, 치포틀레 최저임금 15달러 인상 및 3년 내 연봉 10만 달러 가능 발언, 우버 뉴욕 운전자 시간당 38달러 언급. CPI는 4%대로 상승 중이며 시장은 큰 금리 인상을 반영 중이라고 설명. 성장주 전망: 미래 이익에 의존하는 성장주는 할인율 상승으로 밸류에이션이 크게 훼손된다고 주장. 현 상황을 '유혈 사태(bloodbath)'로 표현. 바이든 정책 평가: 백신 배포는 잘했으나 재개방 정책이 지연되고 있고, 10조 달러 규모의 지출·세금 정책이 과잉 부양과 인플레를 유발한다고 비판. 부유층 증세가 본인 지지층에는 영향이 없다고 봄. 바이든이 지미 카터처럼 실패할 수 있다고 우려. 노동시장 리스크: 연방 실업급여 추가 지급으로 근로 유인이 약해졌다고 주장. 몬태나 등이 급여 중단을 결정했고 전국적 인력 부족이 나타나고 있다고 설명. 임금 인상과 비용 상승이 가격 상승으로 이어진다고 봄. 캘리포니아 재정: 750억 달러 흑자 중 3분의 1은 연방 구제금융, 3분의 2는 2020년 주식시장 호황에 따른 자본이득세 때문이라고 설명. 2020년 순유출 18만 2천 명을 언급하며 주식시장이 무너지면 흑자가 사라질 것이라고 경고. 민간과 공공의 관계: 민간 부문이 부를 창출해 공공재를 재원으로 제공하는데, 정부가 민간을 쥐어짜면 '황금알을 낳는 거위'를 죽이게 된다고 주장. 클린턴 시기 연방지출 GDP 대비 8.5~22% 대비 현재 30% 이상이라 문제라고 지적. 종목·자산 방향: 발언에서 특정 종목 매수·매도 추천은 없음. 성장주 전반 하락 압력 언급. 비트코인 관련 언급은 있으나 구체적 가격 전망은 불명확. 출연자 전망: 인플레이션 확대, 금리 상승, 성장주 약세, 바이든 정책 실패 가능성을 전망. 재정 정책 역풍과 경기 둔화 위험을 강조.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. we have essentially decoupled um what the government thinks is happening with what the capital markets needs people to know and that's a really unique dynamic like i mean i'm i i'm not nearly as successful as stan or have been in the markets as long as him but in my 20 years this is the first time i've really seen that so just to give you a sense of this you know the markets are now acting to establish inflation expectations that the fed just seems to not want to do anything about and what was so for just to give you guys a sense of this like you know when in february the markets really kind of had its first capitulation what happened was that all of a sudden people digested all these facts that stan just said and realized wait a minute like all of this money is going to drive prices higher and so what they did was they took the they took the yield on the 10-year bond up by like 150 100 basis points and the markets freaked out they went from like 0.75 to 1.75 and the fed came out and said hey hold on nothing to see here this is everything's going to be fine but then everything since then has been sort of leading to this realization commodity prices are up 50 there's this kind of like joke that like you know you see a bed of lumber moving across a railroad that's like a billion dollars of lumber just because of how expensive it is you know there are shortages everywhere you'll be shocked to know that today chipotle put out the following guidance which is they said they are increasing the minimum wage to 15 and that within three years you can make a hundred thousand dollars a year at chipotle yeah that is as much as some engineers and coders in the united states dara korshoshawi the ceo of uber said on the uber earnings call last week that the um average hourly rate that some drivers in new york uber drivers in new york were getting paid was 38 bucks an hour thirty eight dollars an hour so what does all of this mean i think what stands for hundreds of thousand dollars a year but we're in this weird place where we've decoupled the government institution that's responsible for fiscal stability and then the overall capital markets used to work in tandem and they're no longer working in tandem because you have a narrative and a set of data points that aren't supported by the facts and so this is an interesting thing so in the cdc versus the american people example there's no way to push back right i mean governors can act independently cities will act independently but at the end of the day you know the teachers unions are working with the the cdc the school camps have this guidance and you're stuck in this morass in the capital markets that's not necessarily true and so you can change and you can you can re-rate asset prices based on sentiment and i think what everybody is saying in this example is we're past the emergency we've put too much money in the economy we need to reopen and we now need to face the fact that there are massively rising prices which means that there will be inflation and if you don't act the capital markets will continue to act for us and so this is an example today where you're just seeing a bloodbath in the markets and by the way the the only time the two government officials tried to be on the either side janet yellen last friday kind of casually in an interview kind of put her toe out in the water as treasury secretary and kind of said something that said there could be inflation and literally was hand slapped and had to put out something that disavowed her comments less than 24 hours later um so that's why there's there's a bloodbath in the markets today and there's been one for the last couple of months and in particular all the growth stocks have been hammered and just to build on what you're saying to moth so there's a announcement today there's some data that the the inflation the cpi is up four percent uh and climbing and so people are now pricing in big interest rate increases and so that makes growth stock that hammers grow stocks because all the earnings are in the distant future and so they get now discounted at a higher rate and so the valuations get absolutely hammered so you know it's it's it's absolutely souring uh that the markets are basically souring on this biden agenda and you know i just you know i i i'm beginning to wonder if biden's going to be a jimmy carter here because frankly all he had to do was leave things well enough alone covid was winding down we had a vaccine all they had to do was distribute it to as many people as possible and covet let the recovery take shape and instead they push this insane 10 trillion dollar agenda of taxes and spending that are now over stimulating the economy that are causing inflation that are now creating interest rate increases no that's that's not that's not true yet meaning he did do a good job on the vaccine david but then to your point the federal government's posture on reopening is still been stunted and he's proposing so much more incremental capital which we all know probably will not be efficiently spent and there isn't any other good ideas and so he believes his path to re-election which is true is to spend and to put money to put money into the economy i think he's gonna backfire i think he's gonna backfire massachusetts and to tax right so he's the spending he's trying to he's gonna offset with higher taxes on the wealthy which uh you know from his point of view is not going to affect him and the analysis is probably fair it's not going to affect his his voter block um he's going to backfire massively look if the economy turns we were set for a postcovid boom and right now that is all at risk because your mouth like you're saying they're keeping the economy closed or parts of it way too long they then overcompensate for that by printing a ton of money and then they overcome say for that by raising taxes too much just to build on that so that second step of their overcompensating their inability to open with money is so true because then what happens is your labor force stays impaired because people make enough money by not working this is the key issue right now for a lot of businesses i mean you have restaurants that are overbooked cannot get servers jim cramer was saying he's he's up to 18 you know per hour per servers he's going to move it to 20 it won't make a difference because with that extra 300 i think in federal st federal unemployment plus three to 700 i think depending on where you are you're now at 60 70 80 percent and people are like well people will still go to work and it's like yeah but you're saving commuting and you probably have side hustles and you've lowered your commute expense so what is going to incentivize people to go back to work we are now running a dry run with cryptocurrency and you know stimulus a ubi experiment and the result of this ubi experiment is uh negative economic growth or uh throttled economic growth we cannot be productive if people don't want to work and contribute so just to your point we need people to go to work so just your point on friday montana which was part of the federal government's um you know pandemic related ui benefits program basically said that we're canceling those benefits and we're opting out and on top of that i think they're now offering a 1200 bonus to return to work and the problem is because the montana now has a severe labor shortage but it's not just montana it's every state in the union so we have these two opposing forces right we have so much stimulus we have an under-motivated labor force we have more taxation that's also just going to be wasted so very poor roi and then now we have input costs going up um and prices going up to try to attract people it's it's all going to drive here i think we have to stop sending people free money so they go back to work like this is a very hard position to take um and we now have this occurring on a micro basis in california we have is is it true we have a 75 billion dollar surplus this year as the city devolves and now we're gonna take that and instead of lowering taxes and maybe trying to get tesla or oracle or other venture capital firms that have left instead of doing that what would be what would be what could we do david with that 75 billion okay well okay so great point so the 75 billion dollar surplus one-third of that is a is from the federal bailout which obviously we don't need and that's the money printing that's coming out so we're giving that back right to another state yeah good luck good luck exactly no the other two thirds is because last year we had all these unexpected tax receipts from the stock market boom and so you had all these california taxpayers paying capital gains on that so but what this highlights to me is and what i wonder about is how many of those taxpayers have left the state because we know that we had net migration loss of 182 000 in 2020.

02. so how many of those people left the state and won't be paying taxes this year and if biden breaks the stock market through this insane tax and spend then where is this like surplus going to come from next year and what this highlights to me is i think we have people in washington and sacramento for that matter who've lost sight of the fact that ultimately the private sector and and the public sector are a partnership because the private sector generates the largesse and the wealth to fund the public sector and to fund the creation of these public goods to fund education to fund law and order to fund social programs and they've stopped seeing it that way they see the private sector not as something like a cow to be milked or a you know or or um you know or a sheep to be sheared but they want to skin the sheep instead of instead of shearing it and um and so they're really at risk of or you know killing the golden goose i guess you could put it put it that way um you know and i think that you know during the clinton years just to take just to take a contrast we had a government spending as a federal government spending as a percent of gdp was between eight and a half and 22 percent that was the range and we had a boom uh so when you have a federal spending as a percentage gdp around 20 it works right and that doesn't mean you can't increase government spending it just means that government spending will increase as the economy gets bigger but what you have now is federal spending over 30 percent of gdp and everything is starting to break that's the problem very very big problem