저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 시프는 미국 경제가 이미 침체 국면이거나 침체 직전이며, 연준의 정책 한계로 큰 조정(실물경제 지진)이 올 것이라고 주장한다. 경기 지표: 산업생산 반등 기대가 하락으로 나왔고 2월 수치가 하향 수정됐으며, 재고 증가·소매판매 부진·무역적자 확대가 겹쳐 1분기 GDP가 마이너스일 수 있다고 본다. 작년 겨울이 20년 만에 가장 따뜻해 2분기 반등 요인도 없다고 평가한다. 정책 전망: 마이너스 금리는 일본과 유럽에서 실패했고 미국에서도 효과가 없을 것이며, 연준은 금리를 인하하거나 마이너스 금리·대규모 양적완화 외에 쓸 카드가 거의 없다고 본다. 유럽과 일본은 인플레이션이 올라 금리를 크게 올려야 할 수 있으나 미국 연준은 높은 부채 때문에 인플레가 올라도 대응하지 않을 것이라고 주장한다. 부채·달러: 미국은 세계 채무국 중 가장 많은 빚을 지고 있어 사실상 파산 상태이며, 연준이 금리 인상 기대를 접고 인하로 돌아서는 순간 달러 약세가 촉발될 수 있다고 본다. 원/달러 방향은 달러 약세(하락) 쪽으로 시사된다. 금·은: 금은 희소성 때문에 가치가 있고 정부의 시세 조작은 일시적이라고 주장하며, 금 가격은 1220달러 수준이고 은은 연중 신고가를 기록했다고 언급한다. 금 상승을 장기적으로 낙관하는 취지다. 주식·자산: 기관 투자자들이 여전히 회복을 믿고 있으며 1분기 액티브 펀드 수익률은 18년 만에 최악이었다고 말한다. 주식시장 전반은 거품으로 보며 구체적인 개별 종목 언급은 없다. 리스크: 주요 리스크는 연준의 정책 실패와 미국 부채 위기, 그리고 캘리포니아 대지진 같은 비유적 '지진'이다. 증시 거품 붕괴와 글로벌 경기침체 가능성을 경고한다. 출연자 전망: 시프는 2008년 위기를 예견한 것처럼 현재도 대규모 조정이 올 것이며, 2016년 말 시점에서 달러 약세와 실물 침체를 예상한다.
다듬은 글
Financial argument follow us on YouTube where do we start I mean are we 30 seconds from Midnight I mean how bad is it what's really going on in the economy well it's it's no way to know exactly you know the timetable but obviously this economy is already back in recession and if it's not in a recession it's certainly on the cusp of one but you know if you look at the data that came out we got the industrial production numbers that came out earlier this morning uh they were looking for a bounce instead we got another decline they revised the February number down uh we got big inventories build again this week retail sales disappointed I think it's clear that you know we could be in a negative GDP quarter right now and you know I think that if the first quarter is bad the second quarter is going to be worse because the last couple of years we had a rebound in the second quarter because we had very cold Winters well this winter was the warmest in 20 years so there is nothing to rebound from if anything some of the activity might have been pulled into the first quarter from the second meanwhile you've got this huge inventory uh glut that needs to be wh down and the trade deficit is getting worse so there's a lot bearing down on US economic growth the problem for the FED is how do they launch a new round of stimulus and still pretend the economy is in good shape because that's the message President Obama is trying to sell and that's the message that Hillary Clinton is trying to run on and Janet Yellen doesn't want to take the wind out of their sales what does it signify was my analysis accurate or what can you add of what negative interest rates will do and then what do you predict they're going to do well I mean negative interest rates are disaster I mean it's not working in Japan it's not working in Europe it's not going to work here uh but just because it doesn't work doesn't mean we're not going to do it because everything we do doesn't work and and we do it anyway but I think it shows desperation that you've had all these Central Bankers lowering interest rates and lowering interest rates and expecting it to revive the economy and then when they get down to zero rather than admit that it didn't work because clearly if you go to zero and you still haven't achieved your objective maybe it doesn't work instead of admitting that they were wrong they're now going negative which is just sheer desperation but I do believe as inflation really starts to turn around in Europe and Japan uh the central banks there are going to be for to abandon 0% rates and they're actually going to have to raise rates pretty high to get out in front of that inflation curve but the United States I I don't think we're going to do anything no matter how high inflation gets we'll do our best to pretend it doesn't exist or rationalize it away because we have a lot more debt I mean America is broke uh if you look at Europe and Japan even though there is some debt there overall those are still creditor Nations the world still owes Europe money the world owes Japan money but America owes more money than all the other deor Nations combin I mean Trump is right about that I mean we are broke we're flat broke and we're living off this credit bubble and we can't prick it so other central banks may be able to raise their rates uh but the FED can't how do you see this unfolding I mean what are the next triggers we hear about sovereign debt we hear about corporate debt we hear about State debt I mean what could trigger the next big implosion a huge earthquake in California I mean I guess another subprime mortgage crisis they're talking about is coming soon I mean there's so many irons in the fire that I see as being able to be a trigger or does it just keep sliding slowly because even Mainline media now won't push the lie that they were just a year ago that really the economy is doing fantastic the only person doing that Obama who says we have the best economy ever ever yeah yeah meanwhile you know we got some consumer sentiment numbers come out today much worse than expected small business sentiment came out the lowest in uh in two years that was earlier this week and in fact uh small business own owners listed the weak US economy as their main concern I mean so you know if if if businesses are so concerned about the economy how can it be so great if you've got Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders doing so well Sanders is now almost neck and neck with Clinton in the National polls he's only down by like one or two points and I think Trump came out today this is his biggest lead yet in the National polls I mean why is that these are the two candidates that are the ones that are most running as an anti-establishment the economy is a wreck and I can do something to fix it if the economy was so good these candidates wouldn't be attracting so much support so you know you're right the economy is bad it's just a question of people admitting it and I think the trigger the trigger that's going to really send this into a higher gear is going to be the admission by the FED that the economy is weak or the markets figuring it out on their own and then you really get a decline in the dollar because now people start to to realize that we're not going to get all these rate hikes that everybody's been betting on we're going to get cuts and the FED doesn't have much room to cut because it only managed to raise rates to a quarter so there's not a lot of stimulus left all they've got is potentially negative rates and a huge round of quantitative easing and this thing is going to blow up in the fed's face sure I mean if the fed's wrong about interest rates being at zero being good why is the IMF and World Bank why are they cheerleading around I guess imf's more European World bank's more us but it's it's I I'm the tour connected at the hip but but both those groups are are basically saying the same thing yeah well they're not any smarter in fact the IMF is still projecting the US economy to grow at about 2.2% this year which you know there's no chance of that happening because if you look at how bad the first quarter is the rest of the EUR is going to have to be above 3% and I don't know why the IMF would would actually believe that it's more of this propaganda the IMF they're bunch of bureaucrats they want to believe that the US economy is going to be strong because that's the the Federal Reserve that's the central bank's uh program I mean the government is trying to create economic growth and the IMF wants to pretend that they're successful they don't want to acknowledge all this government failure the only way to get real government economic growth is to get the government out of the way institutions like thef just interfere with economic growth I agree we're about to go to break and I want to come back and ask you just front and center because you're the expert other key things about the economy you want to impart to folks Peter sh's our guest but separately I'm not happy the economy is falling apart I'm happy we're on a bubble I'm not Doom and Gloom I just want to be honest with people our audience has been roughly doubling every year for the last five or six years it's growing even faster more Affiliates more people watching videos more people watching podcast until I mean this even happened in 2008 but until about two or three years ago as audience went up our money went up the amount of money coming in went up so I could expand with reporters and writers and everything else audience gets bigger more money comes in for the first time ever the last few years our audience is explo loading but money is not going up Peter and I've gotten better at sponsors and raising money so despite every trick I've got it's harder than ever most media as you know is downsize and you're going out of business so I'm seeing it even in a quote Boom Town where we're based like Austin Texas I'm I'm seeing it across the country yeah well absolutely I mean people have less money people have less money to spend and so advertisers are cutting back and everybody's feeling it so so I mean you think that we may already actually be in a recession yeah well all of the indicators if you look at most of the economic indicators that are out there they're flashing recession I mean the only thing that isn't is the low unemployment rate and the jobs that we're creating but then when you look beneath the surface and we've discussed this before on your program when you real that all the jobs that are being created are low-paying part-time jobs the reason there are so many jobs is because people have now have two or three and so if you have three jobs that you know you count as having you know it's three instead of just one but they don't add up to one good full-time job job and you have lots of people who have left the labor force and I think one of the reason the unemployment claims are so low is because so few people are being hired that not that many people are being fired you can't lose a job unless you get a job and so since we're really creating so so few legitimate jobs there's not a lot of people that are are collecting unemployment so this economy is very weak despite uh The Rosy scenario the fiction that the president is trying to pain but Wall Street still doesn't get it you know if you look at performance investment performance in the first quarter this was the worst quarter for actively managed accounts in 18 years Peter stay there let's talk about the real state of the economy the next shet to drop and more Straight Ahead Peter shack.com I'm Alex Jones with the infowars.com stay with us the reason I'm talking about earthquakes is I'm going to talk some about that the next segment I'm not obsessed with volcanoes and earthquakes some people really are into that they like those movies they're always worried about it I guess you kind of do if you live in like California or something or Japan but they are saying all the seismologist California's way overdue it's going to be like an 8.0 or bigger what will that do to the economy but it's a parallel to the economy already people just don't think it's going to happen till it happens and we're lined up for the biggest group of bubbles we've ever seen even you know the Royal Bank of Scotland says sell everything you've got you know into the world type stuff now coming out of George Soros and others and so I'm just asking wow you know is that just hype or how big is it going to be is there any way to avoid it uh Peter shiff was just getting into some of the numbers coming out Peter Well no I was talking before the break about how investors still just don't get what's going on because for the past several years everybody's been positioned as if this recovery were real that it were sustainable and that the FED could normalize interest rates and everything was going to be fine so they've been buying dollars they've been buying certain assets and the first quarter of this year investment returns it was the worst quarter in 18 years for actively managed funds and most hedge funds lost money barely any made any money at all because they still don't get it they still don't understand what's changed meanwhile at EUR Pacific Capital we had one of our best quarters in years probably since 2009 because we're positioned for reality I I've been saying for the last few years as this bubble's been inflating that this whole narrative has been wrong that the Federal Reserve has not solved our problems but exacerbated you said that before 2008 so let me ask you this I mean speaking of earthquakes you're famous for quoting um I mean famous for this quote 2008 was a trimmer for the earthquake that's coming is that what you're still saying yeah and I've been saying that all along even before 2008 because I saw 2008 coming and unfortunately I also saw how the government would respond to 2008 and they did exactly what I feared that they would do and what I warned they would do and that is exactly why the real earthquake is still in our future it's not in our past and people have to prepare for that and by the way you know silver hit a new high today uh for this year for 2016 so so people are starting to wake up it's happening very slowly uh but it's happening and I think well I'll say this I mean I think D's really smart and I think and I agree with him a lot of stuff but when he thinks because gold is so finite that's why it's not valuable I mean the laws of of of of Economics I've seen that makes it more valuable and it has industrial uses and all these Elites are hoarding it he got it he's got it backwards it's scarcity is what makes it so valuable one of the things that makes it so valuable if it was abundant if it was everywhere then obviously it wouldn't have a lot of value and the idea that because it's scarce it can't function as money is completely ridiculous because gold is divisible I mean you can you know you can always adjust the price of gold higher so there's you never run out of it there's always enough well what about this though we now know they've been manipulating gold and silver down as you said many years ago was going on and others did they now admit that so much is rigged so like the stock markets much of it like the interest rates currency rates I mean how how does rigging tie into it because they can always come up with new tricks yeah well you know you can only do that for so long look if the government really could manipulate the gold market gold wouldn't be at 1220 it would still be you know down at 300 or lower where it was in 2000 you know if they can rig markets well we know they're trying is what I'm saying yeah they try but they're not going to succeed the markets are much bigger the fundamentals ultimately went out they can succeed in delaying the inevitable but all that does is make the inevitable bigger right so if if the government is trying to prevent gold from going up when it eventually does go up it's go up even higher well that's what they say about earthquakes too they say the fact that California is way overdue means there's even more pressure when it finally hits are you saying it's the same for economics yeah I mean those tremors are good because they take the pressure off the faults you need the little tremors so you don't have a bigger Quake but think about wage and price controls you know what happens when the government has a price control on something for a while because they try to cover up the symptoms of inflation and then they give up and they take away the controls and then you get a huge spike in price so if the government's going to try to manipulate the market it's not going to last but a lot of the manipulation isn't really manipulation it's just people being foolish you've got big Banks like Goldman Sachs shorting gold telling their clients to short gold a lot of people unfortunately listen to Goldman Sachs and they're doing the wrong thing so a lot of times the markets are just mispriced because so many people don't get it just like all the people who were buying the subprime mortgages before the bottom dropped out of the market or all the people who were buying those stocks for several years before they collapsed so the same thing is going to happen now there's a lot of people follow Peter Skype cut out for just a moment we're trying to reconnect with him here at the end you know it's my job's fun in manyways it's also scary but the good news is time goes on we're gonna get to find out who's right and all this Peter your Skype cut out for a moment uh but uh europ pack.com do do you think it'll be evident that we're in a real Global recession soon the next few months or will it take later well look I think it's more of a a us all right Peter schiffs is gone hey it's okay Skype cut out the end thank you Peter for joining us europ pack.com Alex Jones with infowars.com and prisonplanet.com
Comments 0