저자: DanIves · 외국인
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배터리데이 이후 테슬라에 대해 장기 낙관 유지, 주가 상승 여지 있다고 봄. 배터리데이: 시장 기대치가 매우 높았으나 배터리 원가 50% 절감 등 핵심 기술 로드맵은 인상적이라고 평가. 주가는 400% 상승 후 조정 중이지만 추가 상승의 신호로 봄. 배터리 생산 일정: 배터리 혁신의 본격 효과는 2022년 규모화 이후 나타날 것으로 전망. 기가팩토리 내부 생산 유지가 경쟁우위의 핵심이라고 강조. 글로벌 생산 확장: 상하이 공장이 연 15만대 규모로 출발해 7~8년 내 100만대 가능. 베를린, 오스틴 등 대륙별 생산거점 필요. 2020년 인도량 50만대 목표, 향후 2~3년 내 100만대 이상 전망. 미중 무역갈등: 테슬라의 미 정부 관세 소송은 부품 원가 상승을 소비자에 전가하려는 움직임으로 해석. 다른 기업들도 주시 중. 경쟁 구도: 전기차 제조사 40~50곳이 경쟁 중이나 테슬라가 브랜드·배터리·생산 측면에서 1~2년 앞서 있다고 평가. 팬데믹 중에도 수요가 견조해 타 자동차사와 대비됨. 출연자 전망: 테슬라 목표 상향 낙관 유지, 경쟁 격차가 좁혀질지가 투자자의 핵심 관심사라고 언급.
다듬은 글
well with me to talk about the latest announcements from tesla is dan ives he's managing director of equity research at webbush securities thank you for joining me great to be here so how did shareholders react to how the events unfolded on battery day and with musk's comments about the readiness of some of these batteries to last much longer look i mean this was a very hyped event and almost impossible expectations going in you saw the stock react accordingly but in my opinion they sort of laid out the foundational battery technology that's really going to drive tesla for the coming years cutting costs by 50 on the battery side is a jaw dropper and i think that's the focus and when this is a stock take a step back it's up 400 percent a pullback but i continue to think it's a green light for this to go higher so then given that then what do we know about the timeline for production i mean we heard about him perhaps re reimagining the battery as part of the car yeah i mean i think this is really more of a 2022 event once they get to scale but but it really comes down if you look at tesla everything that they've laid out they've talked to talk but walk to walk especially in china with the gigafactory which is really a linchpin to their success and i think right now they need to make sure that you know that they keep everything within fremont within giga because that continues to be their competitive advantage because right now in the ev market it's tesla's world and everyone else is paying rent now you mentioned the shanghai plant obviously now more plant locations planned for austin texas in the u.s as well as germany both for 2021.
why these locations and what strategic edge could that give tesla well in china that's yeah and that's the heart so long to their success i mean that that's going to be 150 000 vehicles first year out and ultimately could be a million vehicles when you look out over the next seven eight years but but they need to have footprints in each continent and that's what you're seeing with berlin they're obviously expanding in the us in terms of austin and this is more of a broader you know view and the strategy of tesla as it continues to meet that global demand 500 000 deliveries it's slated for this year but you look out next two three years you should be over a million deliveries and in order for that at scale they need these factories in the content in the continents now something that's obviously a backdrop to all of this is the u.s china trade standoff we saw that tesla announced that it's suing the u.s government and u.s trade representative robert lighthizer over the trump administration's tariffs on the parts that tesla imports from china to manufacture its electric cars what's at stake here and how do you see this developing yeah it's a shot across the bow and i think tesla's you know bit not been shy in terms of the tariff situation in terms of how their impact as well as many other companies and i think you know a lot of companies that are in similar situations are watching what musk and tesla are doing with the close eye to sort of see the reaction and how this ultimately pans out but but if you look at a lot of these from a component perspective i mean it's just more costs that ultimately get passed on to the consumer and i think that's really what tesla's going after with this move now obviously on top of the trade war we also have a pandemic going on so where are traditional automakers and smaller companies in the eevee and autonomous vehicle races in comparison to tesla with everything that's going on well i mean look you have 40 or 50 legit manufacturers going after eb today and of course that's global and china you know europe and the us right now in terms of market share i mean tesla continues to be you know i'd say one to two years ahead of competitors and that's not just from a brand perspective battery technology and production the reason battery day is so important it's just is that gap going to narrow that's the big focus for investors going forward but i think so far even when you've seen this pandemic it's been teflon-like demand that tesla's shown which is a contrast to other automakers globally and i think that's why the stock has reflected that optimism all right thank you always good to have your insights down lives there thank you managing director of equity research at webbush securities
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