저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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Dimon은 감세 연장을 포함한 '크고 아름다운 법안'의 조속한 통과를 지지하고, 재정적자는 성장·규제완화·복지 개혁으로 해결해야 한다고 주장. 채권시장은 언젠가 압박을 받을 것이며(6개월~6년 불확실) 신용스프레드 확대 위험을 경고. 중국은 두렵지 않지만 미국 내부 정책 실패를 더 우려. 스테이블코인·토큰화 예금 등 디지털 자산 인프라에 긍정적이며 기술 투자액(연 약 200억 달러 규모)을 강조.
다듬은 글
JP Morgan Chase chairman and CEO Jamie Diamond sat down with Maria during the 2025 Reagan National Economic Forum last week. Watch. Thank you so much. I'm at the Reagan National Economic Forum and I'm sitting with Jamie Diamond, chairman and CEO of JP Morgan Chase. Jamie, thank you for sitting with us.
Thrilled to be here. I know we have limited time. I want to get right into it and first get your thoughts about this big, beautiful bill underway in the Senate where you've got some push back from some senators about spending cuts not being enough. What do you think they need to do? Yeah. I so I think first of all they I'm thrilled they got it through and I I think Michael Johnson did an unbelievable job doing that.
Uh I think the Senate I think they should finish it. I think create increasing consistency, keeping the tax rates going that allow business to to invest small business to large business is really important for growth and etc. And if you go back to the bill in 2017, it brought back trillions of dollars in the United States.
It created a lot of jobs. It created a lot of growth. And people when they look at those numbers, they don't accurately say what those are. So it will work. Then they should go back and worry about cutting, you know, literally looking at, and I shouldn't say cutting, making things more efficient around, you know, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security.
It could be done. Uh, but I think they're better off just getting this thing finished as best they can. The, you know, the smaller the deficit is, the better. Are you as a business person running the largest bank counting on that the extension of those tax cuts? I not so much JP Morgan but I think if you you know talk to small businesses who they don't know if the rate's going to be like 28% or 40% they need it.
If you talk to a lot of companies do a lot of R&D or a lot of equipment expensing they need the certainty and what you what you really don't want them to do is just waiting to find out what's going to happen before they make you know investments in new plants and equipment etc. And seeing a little bit of that.
So the sooner the better. How much are you focused on debt and deficits right now? It's a big deal. you know, it's it is a real problem, but one day we're going to have the bond market's going to have a tough time. I don't know if it's six months or six years. So, I think we have to focus. But when you say focus on it, the real focus should be growth, pro business, proper deregulation, permitting reform, getting rid of blue tape, uh getting skills in schools, get that growth going.
That's the best way. And then reform some of these programs everyone knows can be reformed properly. And I think some of the reform could take place. You're not taking benefits out of poor people or sick people, old people. You're just putting rules in place that make it more reasonable. You know, less uh fraud, less waste, less abuse.
So, I think I think all those things need to be done and then then we can conquer that problem. We've already seen a reaction in the bond market. Rates have been spiking. When you say something will happen in the bond market. What do you mean bond bond market will crack? What does that mean? The but the public has to understand is that something like $30 trillion of securities trades every day.
The these are investors around the world. foreigners own $35 trillion of American securities. They have, you know, another 30 trillion of private investments in the United States or something like that in the United States. People vote at their feet and they're going to be looking at the uh the country, the rule of law, the inflation rates, the central bank policies, you know, what they want to hedge and what they don't want to hedge.
And so those rates aren't set by central banks. They can affect them. They can twist them. They can do things to make you feel more comfortable, which they should do. But you know if they if people decide that the US dollar isn't the place to be yeah you could see you know spreads gap out you know credit spreads gap out and that will become a problem.
We had that during COVID, you know, the Fed promptly stepped in then we had that in 2019. We had it in 20. It will happen again. It's just I can almost guarantee you that. I just don't know exactly when or what the trigger might be. What kind of And the important thing about that is it's not it for JP Moore itself, it's not it doesn't affect us that much.
You know, when you have these volatility in the markets, we trade, we're good at it. We we we finance companies. It it hurts the people raising money. And that includes small businesses. That includes loans to small businesses, includes high yield debt, it includes leverage lending, includes real estate loans.
You know, that's why you should worry about volatility in the bond markets, not because you should worry about the big banks. What kind of growth are you looking for second half of the year? Oh, god. I think our economists have it at like one and a half or something like that, but and I would rely on them.
I I don't know. I think there's so many moving parts. I just don't know how to look at something like that. I mean, Kevin Hasset was on this show the other day and he said he would not be surprised to see 4% growth in the second half of the year. I disagree with Kevin. You disagree? I mean, you know, I'm hope I hope he's right.
You know, I I just don't know. Speaking of growth, look at the growth at JPM the other day, the investor day. Uh you had all your shareholders happy with with the goals that you set out and and your most recent quarter. What do you make like a billion dollars a week? Close. Yeah. But but but remember, but all that stuff we do has been investing.
It's been taking place for 15 years. That's earnings. new branches, new bankers, new technologies, serving clients, serving we serve our multinational, US multi all around the world and that's how you build a company and then we you know provide services payments and you know market making and we raise capital I think in total like $2 and half trillion dollars a year for and that includes governments, cities, states, hospitals, schools, large corporations, small businesses and that's our job.
you know, profits themselves bounce around for a whole bunch of different reasons, but but we like doing it and we're quite comfortable that we can grow our company. You've also and we've got real competition by it. So, I don't I don't sit here, you know, being complacent. Our we have the the other major, you know, investment banks and commercial banks, but we have, you know, the fintech folks.
We've got foreigners, some who are doing a very good job. So, I always look at the ones who are doing better than us and why. I don't just focus on, you know, how well we're doing. Who's doing better than you? Well, Stripe has built a great business in payments. We could have done some of that. You know, PayPal's done stuff.
There are some, you know, we have a Chase UK, we have a digital only bank, but you've seen Revolute done a very good job building a real digital bank, but not just one country, but, you know, pan European and they're coming here. So, lot a lot of people. I remember, you know, 10 years ago sending or 15 years ago sending a bunch of people on our airplanes from consumer retail to China and they said, "Why would we go to China?
We're a US bank." I said, "You'll find out when you get there." when we set them up with Pingan and Tencent and Alip Pay and Alibaba and it opens up your eyes. People around the world are doing really interesting stuff and you you know you can debate what stable coins might do on data banking and so you know we we're always looking at that competition of all different sorts.
What is the impact of the stable coin legislation on the banks on JPM? I I think we are going first of all we have a JP Morgan coin. I think that crypto if you mean stable coin moving data real-time payments doing data and payments together that stuff is real. We're going to be at the forefront of that.
The JP Morgan coin today can move money and data, but as a JP as a deposit of JP Morgan and so it's used internally. We're going to externalize it at one point. My view is we should be in that. I think the other question is what's the laws around it? AML, BSA, KYC for other people. What's the access to the Fed?
What are the rules of the Fed? The Fed may do it itself, you know, to move money internationally. That's all reasonable. Remember the we already move 10 trillion dollars a day and it's digital and we already move some of it real time you know and so there a lot of this we're already building the technologies to do a better job for the client.
So why do we need digital assets? Well it depends what you mean by digital asset. It is a it could be a very effective way to move money through the correspondent banking system where everyone in that system can see where the money is, what it's for, where it is all at the same time. So there are there are going to be some very good uses for you know blockchain.
You spend what? 20 billion dollars on technology. You're spending more on technology than NASA. Really? I didn't know. Is that not right? I don't know. I didn't know that. Tell tell us about your allocation of money on technology and what your goals are. It's it is about close to 20 trillion dollars and that's every business when we look at it.
So, first of all, it's the big stuff that we do at the corporation. That's networks, the big data centers, certain policies, things like that. But then there's the stuff and some AI policy. You know we spend two billions of dollars in AI already billion you know billion dollars in cyber to protect our clients but then we do at the business level if you're in small business what are you doing with data to do a better job for your client that could be for for techn that could be better online account open it could be wealth management it could be you know better fraud services uh it could be you know hooking into accounts receivable accounts payable systems so it's at the very detailed level in trading you know you're talking about split-second trading hedging it taking place with AI I so for every business they have a whole list of things that they're trying to get done to do a better job for the client.
Better is faster, cheaper, ancillary services that people want you give away for free. Uh so it's a whole wide set of stuff. I'm glad you're talking about security. Security and security of our money at at at JPM. You just got back from China. Yeah. You said when you were up there on stage today, you're not afraid.
Tell me what your observations were in China. And I mean, didn't they just do an enormous hack? Yeah. Into our networks. Yes. So the I So cyber is a big deal. China cyber is a big deal. And we don't really know what our government does, by the way, but it's a big deal. And we spend a lot of money protecting us and our clients uh on cyber.
What I mean by I'm not afraid of them is that look, China, first of all, they're not afraid of us either. And you know, going over there, you get the distinct impression that they are doing their thing. They're putting a lot of money into AI, cars, robotics. Uh they're going to be 30 or 40% of new pharmaceuticals sometime shortly.
They're going their way, you know, and but they have weaknesses. They have still have a lot of poverty. They have a very tough neighborhood. You know, a lot of their neighbors are rearming. They have to deal with us. We're still, you know, the most prosperous economy on the planet. Um but my point, the thing I'm I'm not afraid of them.
I'm afraid that we don't get our own act together internally. If America just does our things right, deregulation, permitting, education, pro business, grow the economy, help the lower income folks by growing the economy, you know, fixing immigration, allowing eventually allowing, you know, good immigration in, we'll be in great shape.
We, you know, we will be we'll be the pre-minent military and economy 30 or 40 years from now. If we're not, the world would be a very different world than what we live in today. So, what do you want to see? What should be done in terms of policy? you've been increasingly worried and talking about national security issues.
Oh, so I I say that there's like tectonic plate shifting. People looking, you know, the world relied on the US military umbrella. I think they should you can easily say, you know, people didn't spend enough money. We did too much of it. They relied on us too much. Or you can say we misused it sometimes.
I think that's also true. But that is really important. If if countries start looking elsewhere for their their national security, that will become an issue. is directly related to the their economic security. So it's not just trade is is who do you want to partner with? So we already have you know alliances with you know hundred different countries economic alliance 100 different countries but also India who do you want to partner with and that includes trade it includes investment development finance it includes educating them about the values of America which we've stopped doing a little bit you know values of freedom of speech freedom of enterprise it allows allowing good immigration here you know people have pointed out that you know 40% of the new companies are immigrants who came here to be American they didn't come here to change America And so if we do those things right and then the other long list is permitting dereg I call it the blue state as you know uh we we'll be great.
We just have to get our act together. Well you said something that struck me earlier. We should be stockpiling. What did you say? I said not bitcoins but bullets, tanks, missiles. Uh you know because you pointed out national security is a critical thing. So the most important thing to me in trade is going to be protecting our own national security and that's around resilient supply chains for medical ingredients for anything that goes into our our F-35s rare earths uh and and related think of you know two nano centimeter AI chips you know things like that we say yeah this is important for American national security we need resilient supply chains and then we have to do things to help the military which is we don't keep productive capability empty so all of us do that in our businesses but you know their missile capability they have you know I forgot the number they have a plant billing missiles but if you have the double or triple production we don't have a plant sitting there ready to go and we need that right and that should have been part of our planning we don't allow enough flexibility for the military the world's changed and you see what's happening these drones what you need is very different this month and even two months ago so they need more flexibility to buy this not buy that uh uh we need to spend more money uh we need to um uh do budgeting do multi-year budgeting for them.
And so we're going to lay this out with we have a thing called the defense action form. We spent a lot of time with some of the generals and you know some of the new tech companies in in uh in uh equipment and then obviously the big prime contractors. What do we need to do to have the best military?
What's changed? And we got to do it now. We don't really have the luxury to wait. Well, so when President Trump is thinking about these trade deals that he's talking about, what you're saying is put limitations on on certain groups. Like it's not, you know, bullets are not the same as t-shirts. Yeah.
Exactly. Well, and the other thing is it's unilateral. You don't have to negotiate. Certain things are just this is the way America's going to do it. You know, they've done that in a whole bunch of different things. This is the way we do it. Uh there are other things which they should focus on too which I say is unfair trade where if you believe they're using their capital, their surplus, their economy, subsidies to dominate a global industry like cars or batteries or that's not unfair.
on that one. Of course, you should deal with in trade, but you also need to deal with our allies. It's not near as effective to do it for yourself. And now we we don't get any of that stuff here, but the allies are going to do it anyway, right? So they they can still dominate the global industry without us actually being part of it.
Jamie, as I wrap up here, what do you want to say about leadership? I mean, you were at the investor day the other day and everyone was saying, "Oh, he's here for another five years." I mean, you you're not going anywhere. It doesn't seem like, but why does everybody talk about soon you're going to have to retire?
It's several I don't it's several years away and and obviously it's always up to God and the board. Uh we have we've got some great people. There will be an appropriate time and then I may stick around for a couple years, you know, uh up to God and the board as, you know, chairman or executive chairman, something like that.
I love what I do. I love my country and uh I I don't know what I'd do if I wasn't fighting for something every day. What do you want to say to a young person who wants to become the next Jamie Diamond? How do they do it? It's it's work and learn learn. Read everything. Talk to everybody. Talk to every side.
Don't don't become weaponized by one side of the other. Uh get out in the road. It's amazing. Get around the world because some certain countries are doing some fabulous stuff. Learn earn your respect every day with a little bit of uh humanity and heart. People should want to trust you. They they'll work for they want to trust you.
So leadership isn't like just pounding people. was, you know, and and you know, like if I came to Fox, you know, and I and I was running Fox, I don't know what you everyone in Fox does every I don't know what everyone does every day in JP Morgan. That's why I'm work hard. That's why I do my bus trips is to and then say, "We'll fix it for you." Whether the client tells me we have a problem or the teller tells you a problem and uh have a heart human humanity treat everyone properly you know make sure you treat you know from the security guards to the waiters to you know to the CEOs treat them properly and enjoy your life you know and enjoy the journey a little bit and it's it's that journey is never straight.
I mean it is it's a rocky thing. So um I know you a long time Jamie and most people may not know this but even you got fired once. I did and everyone they introduced me they never mentioned that you know that I worked for 15 years for one guy helped build traveler I've been president chief operator merged it with city uh and that obviously wasn't going to work out and I got fired and I was surprised you know but eventually you dust off you move on and then you came back and you crushed them in market share yeah exactly all right final question here Jamie how did the markets feel to you right now complacent you know prices are high things are things are going okay prices are kind of working in a soft landing.
I hope that's true. I just tell people I I think the odds of that are just lower than other people think and that they're going to surprise. There's so many things moving out there from deficits to geopolitics to uh trade. It's it's it's complex and something can go wrong and you know when things do you usually get surprised and I was taking my job not guessing the future being prepared to serve my clients regards the future.
That's how I look at business. Jamie, it's great to see you today. Great. Enjoy it here. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you so much.
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