Why Ed Yardeni is expecting an interest rate hike in July

요약 보기

채권시장이 연준 금리인상을 반영 중이며 2년물 4.1%가 연방기금금리(3.5~3.75%)보다 높아 연준이 뒤처져 있다고 봄. 6월 회의에서 긴축 편향 전환, 7월 25bp 인상 가능성 제시. 10년물 4.6%가 임계점이며 그 이상이면 4.75% 정도가 다음 지지선, 5%까지는 아니라고 봄. 금리 상승에도 주식시장은 감당 가능하고 실적은 계속 좋을 것이라며 S&P 목표 8250 유지. 시장 조정은 협소한 대형 기술주 쏠림 완화의 건강한 과정으로 평가. 중동 긴장으로 유가가 100달러 수준에 머물고 중국 경기 약세가 이를 완화한다고 언급.

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01. From one of the most followed market watchers, Ed Yardeni, says we could get a rate hike in July. Let's get more now from the man himself. He's the president of Yardeni Research and he's with us live. Welcome. It's good to talk to you. Thank you. So, you turned some heads today because you're such a bull in this market and you stay with your target of 8250 for the end of the year, but you think the Fed could actually hike rates in July?

02. Well, I think the bond the market is calling for that. I think the reason bond yields have gone up is because the perception is that the Fed is behind the curve on inflation and the Fed has to uh was clearly show that they're dropping their easing bias, which is what they had in their April meeting and uh move not to a neutral bias, but move to a tightening bias at the June meeting in coming up in a a few few weeks.

03. And then after that, I think they have to follow up and actually show that they're willing to raise rates and do it by 25 basis points. The the 2-year is now indicating that the federal funds rate is too low. The federal funds rate range is 3 1/2 to 3.75%. The 2-year is at 4.1% and it's a pretty good leading indicator of what the Fed should do and very often it gets it right.

04. Ah, so you you're one of those in the Fed follows the market camp, it sounds like. Well, I I think the Fed doesn't really want to get behind the market. Being behind the market is being very much behind the curve cuz the market is certainly looking at the CPI and PPI that just came out and there's a lot of concern that we're back into an inflation mode comparable to what uh 21-22.

05. I don't think it's anything like that. I don't think we're going to have another bear market the way we did in in 2022. I think the uh stock market can handle a rate rise in the in the bond market. Well, right now it's at 4.6%. It's sort of at a critical level. If it goes higher than that, then I think the the next stop is going to be somewhere around 4 and 3/4%.

06. I don't think we're going to go to 5% and I don't think these are the kind of rates that are going to really create a problem for the economy to grow and for earnings to grow. So, I see earnings continuing to do well. I think that we are going to see some tightening in credit conditions here because of the inflation issue.

07. And I don't think that's going to create a real big problem for the valuation multiple, either. It's It's not a perfect correlation between bond yields and the valuation multiple, and I think the market's still very much focused on the very futuristic developments that are happening now in the whole AI field.

08. You know, uh Ed, I'm just going to read you We're not naive to the moves in the market. As we were having this conversation, guys, put up the the S&P if we could, uh please, cuz that's that's that's what we need to see. Can we see that, please? The intraday. There it is. Um this is on a Truth Social post by the president, uh who says, "I've been asked by the Emir of Qatar, uh the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, and the President of the UAE uh to hold off on our planned military attack of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which the president says was scheduled for tomorrow and that serious negotiations are now taking place." Um so, we'll continue to follow that, but Ed, this this just shows you uh how sensitive the the market is to this issue, right?

09. If you're going to have yields move up and oil move up and attacks move forward, this market's probably not going to take that news all that well, especially at a time where some would suggest the stock market was ripe for some degree of pullback anyway. You just needed the point of to which it was going to initiate that, right?

10. Yeah. Look, I I I don't really have a problem with the notion that the market takes a pause here. I I I think it's a good thing. I wouldn't want to see the market continuing to move straight up led by a narrow group of stocks led by the magnificent seven and led by the the semiconductors. I like what I'm seeing today.

11. I like that some money is coming out of some areas of tech that have done very well and going into software. I think that's that's that's a that's a good development, a sign that of a kind of a healthy broadening out in the market. And we have seen the S&P 500 index outperform the market weight index.

12. And I think some broadening in this market is appropriate, especially since the underlying earnings picture really is broadening. It's more and more companies according to analysts are looking better and better on the on the earnings front. So, I don't think we're going to have a pullback anywhere near as severe as what we had in March.

13. That that obviously was when we had the shooting war in the Middle East. It certainly looks to me as though the the president does not want to start another round round of shooting. And we may just have a status quo where the Iranian ports are blockaded and the Strait of Hormuz is blockaded. And the big surprise is that the price of oil is actually stayed pretty reasonable at 100 bucks.

14. I know that sounds odd to say, but it's not 125, 150, 200. I think some of that is because fortunately the Chinese economy is looking pretty weak. Their their retail sales report that came out just recently was very very weak.