저자: 미상 · 외국인
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진행자가 Market Wizards(Jack Schwager) 책의 투자 교훈을 소개. 성공 트레이더들은 자기 규칙을 세우고 손실을 빨리 인정하며, 추세 전환의 촉매(catalyst)를 보고 진입한다고 정리. 개인 사례로 2020년 비트코인 반등의 촉매를 놓친 경험과, 장기적으로 농업/미량영양소 분야에 관심이 있다고 언급. 특정 종목·자산에 대한 구체적 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
what's up guys welcome back to the channel I'm uh going to be finishing an audio book today called Market Wizards written by Jack Swagger I think it's published this one the original version is published in 1987 I got that version there are updated ones but he interviews some of the best traders of all time and uh you know you could call you know Jim Rogers is in there and he refers to himself as an investor he's like I don't know what you mean by Trader but uh investing yeah but a lot of these guys he interviews are commodity Traders and um and it's a really helpful book it's a really helpful Business book because he asks these guys what has made you an outlier like unbelievably successful and I'm talking guys that are starting with 5,000 bucks 10,000 bucks tur into 200 million uh in uh a couple cases he's got Paul tutor Jones in there turns it into a few billion um and he's just like hey so how come you guys are able to do this and like the average guy or like the public is not able to do this and what's interesting is almost all of them early in their career lose they have a huge gain like they do really well get to a certain number call it 5 million bucks they lose it and mostly lose it on one trade and uh and then all of them kind of adjust and and then create rules for themselves so that's the first observation I have in this book is that all of these successful inv investors have their own rule book and they all violate it uh at the beginning or it doesn't exist and then after they make that mistake they never do that again and that's one reason why that they've been so successful for example a few of the the investors in that book are are like yeah I don't do anything more than a 3% draw down if it's a 3% draw down I'm out now this is the second point that I found interesting all of them were more than happy to realize a loss and by realize a loss I mean like they were happy to take the loss I had a buddy that was trading options and I love the guy sold his house had some Equity he like Trav I'm going to trade options I'm like I don't that doesn't sound like good to me but okay like and I'm all I'm I'm fine with tra like if you want to trade options like I'm all about it I do it sometimes as well on on like certain companies I I I I feel like I know what direction they're going and so by buying an option it gives you a little bit more leverage and uh and but none Ness he he uh he had a loss he got to a spot where he had a loss paper loss hadn't hadn't realized yet hadn't sold anything yet and he didn't want to sell because he didn't want to take the loss so he just rode it down and uh rode rode it down a few times like it it didn't really work out well and uh and so all of these investors are are more than happy to take a loss because of the time value because they'd rather take a loss on their capital and move into something that they feel like they have more information on or they they that they feel like the trend is moving in their Direction on rather than try to will it into existence I think like small business owners entrepreneurs people don't want to take a loss so I bought this one asset and I don't want to sell it for this but but by doing that you're not making the best decisions so you've got to look at the capital that you're investing and you're like what given this balance sheet where am I best to invest it like where should it be best if you're like oh well I wish I I had more in this asset and less in this asset but I don't want to sell this asset cuz I'll have a loss it's like no get rid of that and get what you think is better like immediately and that's so that was like that a big observation of this book uh the next the next thing that I had noticed in this in this book that was like really different than everyone else is that they weren't trying to time anything they were just trying to do genuinely good on their on their investment like they were just trying to pick a big slug out of the middle they weren't trying to find the bottom they weren't trying to find the top but all of them said one thing with the exception of Jim Rogers who basically said the same thing but in in a different in a different context Jim Rogers is my favorite investor of all time you can find him on YouTube he he ran the quantum fund with George Soros back in the day um they they both became billionaires Jim went off to ride a motorcycle around the world then he did it with a diesel Mercedes G Wagon but he took the frame and he took a Mercedes convertible I think it was the SLK and he put that on top of the G wagon he actually had Mercedes do it they warrantied the entire thing and he took it out around the world and so he just became like a worldwide like solopreneur investor so Jim is like by far my favorite investor but he said the exact same thing all of them were more than happy to buy some something at an all-time high because it shows that the trend has shifted in the favor of that said asset which is not intuitive to me where I was like you don't want to buy anything at an alltime high it would be selling things at an alltime high and all of them said no typically you're going to have really great odds mathematically because you know that the trend has shifted if you're there early you're there early I mean I guess you could be there a decade early you know and it could be wrong and so all of them had said yeah when we see a trend shift when we see a catalyst shift that's when we go in and I thought man that's really interesting because there's a few things I'm looking at now and business and in investing and and I'm like what's going to be that catalyst you know one thing I'm super bullish on long term is agriculture I just think the US a a situation is a wreck I don't think that there are any micronutrients available in the United States and I just think that eventually at some point in time this is going to be evident and um and that that there might be you know a trend shift for people demanding healthy food I went to a church service this weekend we had a church BR brunch thing afterwards that nobody cared about what was in the thing you know I was showing you people like oh look at this like it's caramel coloring it's yellow six you know it's all the things on the back everyone's yeah whatever it's like okay you guys are eating poison but I guess nobody cares and so uh as an investor it' be kind of foolish in a way to invest in that now it's weird because there's a big lag in agriculture right like if you're going to be really killing an a it's going to take a few years to build to build up not just going to plant a fruit tree and just be killing it tomorrow you know it's going to take seven years so uh but all of them said there was a catalyst something that shifted I noticed this with Bitcoin in 2020 I've got a video where I'm making fun of my Bitcoin buds I'm like how we doing today it's March 20 of 2020 and Bitcoin had fell like 3500 I should have backed the bus up I should have just went in and just bought 20 coins real quick and uh and instead I was like oh this is interesting we'll see how this shakes out the Catalyst was that week they announced they were going to spend like5 trillion printing all of a sudden it just freaking took off and never stopped that was the Catalyst moment I missed that I didn't have the knowledge to know that and uh and then when it was like eight you know whatever it was like okay is this still like the thing from back in my college days where all my like weird libertarian buddies are are like you know into this and like it's just magic internet money or is this like is this now becoming part of like the solution to get out of a system that's clearly dying and I miss the catalyst event and um or I didn't recognize the Catalyst event I didn't miss it I mean I have some but like it's like but I Mis understood the Catalyst event so you're looking for things that are going to shift that that enable a new trend to begin and there's a clear Catalyst and at which point um that that's when you go in so Market Wizards I'll link to the book I I I just thought it was freaking excellent and I thought there so much to learn I've got about 2 hours left left on it he interviews all these different investors in it and uh man it's it's a really really good book so I have like two or three more interviews that he does and you notice these trend lines in him so see you guys in the next one
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