저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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페덱스가 예상보다 크게 좋은 실적(EPS 3.83달러, 컨센서스 3.61달러)과 첫 완전연도 가이던스(매출 4~6% 성장, 컨센서스 1.1%)를 발표해 주가가 2% 이상 올랐다. 관세 등 불확실성 속에서도 고객 서비스와 시장점유율 확대, 네트워크 2.0 및 유럽 효율화, 항공화물 비용 절감 등이 근거로 제시됐다. 주가는 PER 약 13배로 저평가이고 배당수익률 2.5%도 안전하다고 평가했다. 다만 거시 경제는 여전히 우려스럽다고 언급했다.
다듬은 글
Last night, FedEx reported a much better than expected quarter, almost out of nowhere, which is why it stock jumped more than 2% today. Now, this is a stock that struggled since the summer of last year, especially during the original tariff turmoil this spring. While FedEx rebounded from its post liberation day lows in April, it never really got back to pre-tariff levels, pretty much trading sideways over the course of the summer.
Going to last night's earnings report, the stock was down nearly 20% for the year. Not great. And it's not like Wall Street was enthusiastic in anticipation of the quarter. If anything, there was a palpable sense of negativity. And whoa, Bank of America downgraded the stock from buy to neutral just last week as part of a broader negative call in the shipping industry.
Three days ago, Epicord did the same thing, taking from outperformed to inline because they were worried about the economy. Even I haven't been particularly positive on FedEx, although I haven't been as negative on this one as I've been on UPS. And I have tremendous respect for CEO Rajmanian, who's still in the midst of a long-term turnaround plan.
I've been hesitant to recommend the stock lately because this really doesn't seem like a great economy for anyone in the shipping space. Yet, when FedEx reported last night, I got to tell you something, they shot the lights out. These guys delivered a very healthy revenue beat driven by the strength of their core FedEx Express business, which was up more than 4% year-over-year.
The FedEx freight segment, which is, by the way, is being spun off, was basically in line. More important, the company earned $3.83. Wall Street was only looking for $3.61. Uh, that's 6% earnings growth. Really, very, very good for this company. Even better, FedEx issued its first fullear forecast for the 2026 fiscal year, and those numbers were very good, too.
They're talking 4 to 6% revenue growth. Analysts were only expecting 1.1%. Although their earnings guidance was pretty much in line with a very wide range. Still, last quarter, they didn't even issue a fullear forecast. They were that hesitant. This time, they really stepped up. I think it's very bullish.
Now, in terms of the story of the quarter, a couple things did stand out to me. First, management sounded much more constructive on the overall operating environment than anyone would have expected. They're still cleareyed about the challenges po uh that are posed by a weak industrial economy and the tariffs.
But the word management returned to time and again on last night's cover was dynamic. It's not a good environment. It's not a bad environment. It's a dynamic environment. What else? Superman and his team kept talking about the need for great customer service. Well, I hope so. The CEO talked about the removal of Trump's dimminimous tariff exemption, which a lot of people were really worried about going into the quarter.
FedEx has been focused on that issue since the spring because the Trump administration removed the dimminimous exemption for goods from China back in May, but the exemption ended for all goods globally at the end of August. Supermania said that because they'd already handled this with China, they were in a much better position to help shippers in the rest of the world.
Now that the exemptions totally gone, it seems like there work some great partnerships about this stuff. At the same time, FedEx is clearly winning market share and they're simp they're not doing it simply by cutting prices. I think they're doing it with better service. FedEx chief customer officer Bri Carreri cited Best Buy, which named FedEx as their primary national partial carrier after being won over by the company's realtime tracking system for packages.
It's worth listening to the call if you like this uh stock to listen to what they said about Best Buy because it was showed you how good these guys really are. Hey, by the way, while we're talking about FedEx taking market share, it seems pretty clear that they specifically are taking business from UPS.
Management was too classy to dunk on UPS. That's dunk on is by name during the conference call. But I did some private digging. It's true. Something you can tell simply by reading between the lines of the conference call transcript. The final major piece of the puzzle was the way FedEx managed its costs with a couple major initiatives discussed yesterday.
The first is an effort that FedEx is calling network 2.0 you know, where they're trying to improve the efficiency of their pickup and delivery system in North America. The company's removing stations from its network and reducing the number of pickup times overall. While the network 2.0 project sounds like reduced service, it isn't.
Nine said it's quote, "Customer feedback, especially when it comes to the consolidated pickup experience, remains very positive." So, they're cutting costs without angering their customer base. That's what we need. At the same time, FedEx is making is making similar efficiencydriven changes to its European network, long a thorn in the company side, and they're reporting great progress there as well.
Superman said that he was quote especially pleased with the team's year-over-year improvements in labor and onroad productivity metrics end quote in Europe. And he noted that this was FedEx best new business quarter in Europe in the last two years. Finally, there's what FedEx calls its triolricolor strategy.
And that's an effort to boost delivery speeds and improve profitability in the company's key air freight business. Now, this is a bit of an oversimplification, but thericolor initiative is mostly focused on making the company's air freight network more flexible, able to scale up when there's more demand and scale down when there's not.
Basically, they're trying to save money by having fewer fixed costs. In this quarter specifically where international volumes were down due to tariffs, the company was able to reduce its Asia to the US capacities mostly China significantly while adding profitable capacity from Asia to Europe. Put it all together and you get what we got last night.
A much better than expected set of numbers from FedEx that led to a very nice rally in the stock. And I've got to tell you, I thought it should have even been higher. So the question is, can it continue? Honestly, I think it really can. While I want to stay a little cautious given everything that's going on with tariffs and a murky economic backdrop, I think FedEx has been able to do a fantastic job navigating its way through this tricky environment, keeping customers happy and taking a lot of market share while also cutting costs.
That makes me feel a lot more confident about this one. Doesn't hurt that stock super cheap, trading at less than 13 times the midpoint of their fullear earnings forecast. Remember, average stock in this market sells at 25 times earnings. And when all is said and done, I wonder if that forecast ends up looking super conservative in retrospect.
FedEx also pays a respectable 2.5% dividend yield. And unlike UPS, which yield is more than three times that level, I have no worries that FedEx is going to have to cut it. This dividend is safe. The bottom line, even in a tough environment, FedEx managed to blow away the numbers last night. And look at how they pulled it off.
I got to tell you, I am cautiously optimistic that this one is not done and is going higher. maybe much higher. That money's back there. Coming up, all you can eat profits. Kramer's digging into the latest earnings from restaurant operator Darden and seeing if now's the time to take a bite. .
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