저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
소프트뱅크가 엔비디아 지분 전량(약 58억 달러)을 매각한 소식을 다룸. 출연자는 엔비디아를 굳이 보유할 이유가 적고 NBIS, 스테라랩스 등 성장 소형주가 낫다고 봄. 마이클 버리의 AI 감가상각 과소계상 주장(약 1,760억 달러, 오라클·메타 이익 과대계상)을 소개하고 팔란티어 공매도 포지션에 주목. 출연자들은 AI 거품 가능성을 인정하나 버리의 타이밍에는 동의하지 않음. 시장 모멘텀 약화와 셧다운 영향도 언급.
다듬은 글
It's time we get into the real meaty stories this week. We have some updates on Michael Bur. But first, headline came out today that Soft Bank, just an absolute behemoth in the investing in Wall Street world, if people are watching and aren't aware of them, sold their entire stake in Nvidia for 5.83 billion.
And some people came out and said that this isn't a a bearish thing for Nvidia because SoftBank has a ton of commitments within the AI space already. So they're going to use this money to kind of fund other AI that like open AI and other companies within the space still. I don't know. You sell close to $6 billion and the entire position it doesn't seem that great.
What do you make of this headline for Nvidia? The fact that SoftBank is no longer a shareholder. I it it's kind of like when people it's the same thing when people oh they scheduled that sale. It's okay. Maybe they scheduled the sale but it's not a good sign. I mean it's not a it's not necessarily a bad sign to me actually what I am saying to people is I don't know why you'd own Nvidia when you could own like Stera Labs or NBIS just because they face the same risks and you know those smaller ascending companies are growing faster right and I think it's all the same to you be well if if if there's a downturn in it then then those will go down more.
Yeah. But if you believe in the sector overall, if you're owning Nvidia long term and you believe in the sector, then you'd rather own the long-term thing, you might suffer some more short-term losses. But if your theory on Nvidia is I'm holding it for the next five years, I think you'd rather hold NBIS or Aster or INO for the next five years.
I just don't think Nvidia is going to get that same level of appreciation where it is. And but that's what it comes down to, right? If you're like, I'm worried that there might be an AI bubble, then I'd argue that you don't want to own Nvidia or NBIS at all, right? If you don't think that there's a bubble, then I think you'd rather own the smaller ones.
And it's a simple like, you know, we're always trying to set up game theory, and I think that's simple game theory. I don't think there's a good reason to own Nvidia right now versus more ascending players. You just, no matter how you slice it, it doesn't make sense to me. We have to continue on this AI story because we got a furthering of Michael Bur and his position against the AI sector.
So, we covered last week and we posted a video from the stream about how Bur is now or it came out that he was slash is 80% short in his portfolio with Palanteer being a huge majority and that Nvidia making up the other percentage. He gave further details about about this about how he thinks companies are overvaluing the assets and they're not properly accounting for the depreciation of these chips by as much as 176 billion he estimated.
and he singled out Oracle and Meta individually as the two biggest companies that are doing this the most and saying that their profits could be overstated by as much as 27% for Oracle and 21% for Meta by 2028. And if that's the case, yikes, that's a lot of 176 billion. That's a lot. It's kind of funny when we were talking about this last week, the the thing that I said was Bur's got to have something more behind it, right?
So, so there it is. This is a very specific thing. He probably has specific numbers on it. I'm not sure what that has to do with Palunteer or Nvidia because Nvidia is selling new chips. So depreciation I mean that doesn't I think I could make the case for Nvidia the fact that people just won't be able to keep purchasing at the pace that they are to I don't I don't get Palanteer in that in that thinking as well but maybe the
thing if if that's his specific thesis it means that eventually places like Oracle and Meta will have to take a big loss. So that seems like the morological shorts there. That doesn't it doesn't totally it doesn't totally check out. His thinking could be that that it creates kind of overall systemic risk and that overall systemic risk is what's going to um what's going to hurt these higher valued stocks.
Palanteer being one of them. I could see that. But yeah, I mean I don't think I think that makes it more interesting to me and gives it more credence that you know, like we said, he has some numbers behind it. And when he has numbers, he probably has target prices of what these stocks should land at.
So definitely worth following. And I'm just seeing more and more coverage of people questioning the legitimacy of how the money is flowing. We we've covered the circular economy. There's this classic meme. I forget which show. It's an old show, but they spread $10 around between the three of them and they're I owe you 20, here's 10.
I owe you 20, here's 10. And at the end of it, it's the same $10 and they're all out of luck. And there's this photo going around how like seven companies are sending a trillion dollars worth of digital money essentially back and forth and this is kind of spurring this demand of the AI stuff. How worried are you that there is going to be some type of actual damage and once one domino drops the rest will fall or will that not happen?
Do you not see that as a scenario? No, it's very intertwined. It is a bubble. I'm not I'm just not sure I agree with his timeline on the bubble is is is the one thing. If he's buying options, he could know something. Maybe his play is that these depreciation numbers will have to be updated. But even then, he's owning options.
Maybe they're long jated options, even if they're going to have to take a depreciation hit at the end of this year, right? Which I don't necessarily agree with. You can really kick the can down the road on these things if you don't want to take it yet or you want to find some other solution, but maybe he's aware of them out of options in terms of taking those depreciation hits.
And maybe that's what relates to Nvidia. I still can't connect it to Palunteer, but maybe if these depreciation hits, I don't know the age of their inventory. That would be an interesting thing for you to follow up on, Stephen. If they have a lot of this inventory that's going to be depreciated, actually Nvidia, if they're sitting on a big amount of inventory, that could be the biggest hit to them.
But if the bubble pops, it's going to pop everything. and and Palanteer is probably the most overvalued mature company anybody's ever seen relative to where what its current EPS is. Um, so yeah, I mean it's going to be I mean if Bur is right on this one, you've got to put it in the com him in the conversation as one of the one of the most, you know, smartest asymmetrical investors we've seen.
Uh I mean and the asymmetrical part is is important because some people there's been some very famous investors that uh that I don't need to call out specifically some of them are pretty latigious that have been caught suspected of basically having asymmetry by gathering information that they shouldn't have but by all accounts you know Michael Bur is you know not really like a lot of those people get that kind information by, you know, working connections, you know, diplomacy, bro.
Like that [snorts] doesn't really seem like his game. He gets it in legal means, but yeah, this would be to the best of my knowledge. But this would be a real a big feather in his cap if he's right about this. And we are seeing a more apprehensive market. We don't know if it's ready to pop. It doesn't have the bull energy that it used to have.
And a lot of this was retail. I don't know if retail is buying the narrative more. I don't know if there's a real economic strain, how much the shutdown is factoring in, but obviously it's pulled back today, the shutdown and and we're not seeing people buying this stuff up. So, yeah, like if it was a few months ago, I would have been more inclined to be like, h, you know, Bur's a little crazy. But to be a real
Comments 0