저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
Fed가 금리 인상을 늦게 시작해 인플레이션·성장·금융안정 사이의 딜레마가 삼중고로 커졌다는 진단. 은행권 스트레스 이후 최선의 정책은 없으며, 현 시점 최소악은 금리 인상 중단(pause)과 금융 전염이 끝났는지 확인하는 것이라고 주장. 금융 전염보다 경제 전염이 정책으로 대응하기 어려우며, Fed의 금리 전망과 시장 기대 간 괴리를 해소해야 한다고 언급. 은행들이 대출을 더 보수적으로 가져가고 규제도 강화될 것이라 보며, 대출 축소 규모가 추가 금리인상 몇 bp에 해당하는지가 핵심 질문이라고 봄. 유럽 은행은 미국발 불안이 전이되지 않는 한 크게 걱정하지 않는다는 입장이며, 예금 이탈로 인한 듀레이션 미스매치는 Fed가 해결 가능하지만 신용(대출) 측면 위축이 더 우려된다고 정리. 명시적 종목 매수·매도 언급은 없고 Fed 정책 및 경기 관련 진단이 중심.
다듬은 글
join us to talk more about the markets the fed and the Fallout from the stress on the banking system Muhammad alerian aliens advisor and president of Queen's College Cambridge you've been very hawkish Muhammad have you uh the events of the past three weeks got me to be less hawkish look they just confirmed the problem we have because the Fed was late starting in hiking interest rates and because of that and as you pointed out it's not just a dilemma of inflation versus growth it's a trilemma inflation growth and financial stability and we don't have a good way out of it you know listening to your show today Joe you and Becky you kept on pushing your guests and the truth is there is no first best policy response anymore everything would have collateral damage and unintended consequences what uh what would you do right now then what's what's the the least bad steps that the FED should be taking right now Muhammad I suspect the least bad is pause after the hikes we've seen make sure that the financial contagion is behind us and then try to assess the economic contagion which is harder to counter with policy and then try to resolve Joe this big difference we have between what the FED is telling us is going to happen to rates and what the markets think we need to resolve this because the longer it stays unresolved the bigger the problem when it has to be resolved how bad uh do you think the the situation that we've seen with with the banks how much are they going to pull in their lending Muhammad how much will that how many basis points do you think that that accounted for of additional hiking that won't need to be done you think it's 50 do you think it's 75 do you think that that lending becomes much tougher that is the most important question right now the degree of economic contagion that resulting from this mishandled interest rate cycle um look it is going to be significant um because there are two different drivers here one is Banks themselves getting more conservative but two is Bank expecting regulation to get tighter you know the regulators and the supervisors have been embarrassed and the response has always been tight in regulation more even though this is a failure of supervision more than it is than a failure of regular of Regulation what what's going to happen next in in the financial sector Muhammad what what about Europe we we feel better about the regional Banks here I guess given the developments over the weekend at Deutsche Bank Out of the Woods do our Capital ratio solid over in Europe or are they misleading I keep hearing conflicting signals from that so I'm with Roger I I'm not particularly worried about the banks in Europe um as long as they don't keep on importing um instability from the U.S so the real question is what about the U.S look so far what we've seen play out is duration mismatches as you pointed out and when you have a loss of trust and the deposit side flees there's nothing you can do about your duration mismatch is to be part of banking the problem we've got to be careful about is the credit side the loan book is this notion of rolling credit contractions that we're all worried about so I'm not really worried about the interest rate mismatches I think that can be sorted out by the fed I'm more worried about the credit issues and that really comes back to how badly hampered is the economy because of this mishandled interest rate cycle
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