저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오의 브리지워터가 2분기에 알리바바 등 중국 기술주를 전량 매도한 것은 중국 증시에 부정적 신호로 해석되며, 영상은 상장폐지 위험·경기둔화·부동산 위기·규제 강화를 그 배경으로 든다. [13F 공시와 매도 사실] 브리지워터의 2분기 13F 공시에서 알리바바, JD.com, 빌리빌리 등 중국 기술주 지분을 모두 정리한 것으로 나타났다. 1분기까지 매수하던 알리바바 약 750만 주를 2분기에 매도했다. 달리오는 작년 11월 중국 투자자용 펀드를 출시해 약 12.5억 달러를 모았다고 언급된다. [상장폐지 위험] 외국기업책임법(HFCAA)에 따라 중국 기업 회계감사자가 미국 감독당국에 정보를 제공하지 않으면 2024년까지 미국 거래소에서 상장폐지될 수 있다. 상장폐지 시 장외시장으로 옮겨가 유동성이 크게 줄고 주가 하락이 예상된다. 중국 국영기업 5곳(시노펙, 차이나라이프, 중국알루미늄, 페트로차이나, 상하이석유화학)이 SEC 지적 후 자발적으로 뉴욕증시 상장폐지를 택했다. [중국 경기 둔화] 7월 산업생산은 전년比 3.8%로 예상(4.6%)을 하회했고, 소매판매는 2.7%로 컨센서스(5%)에 못 미쳤다. 제로 코로나 봉쇄로 상하이 등 주요 도시가 2개월 봉쇄되었고 소비·제조 회복이 일시적이라는 우려가 나온다. [부동산 위기] 부동산 부문은 GDP의 약 1/3, 가계자산의 약 70%를 차지하며 은행 대출의 약 30%가 부동산 관련이다. 헝다그룹 디폴트 이후 개발사들의 자금난이 확산되었고, 7월 부동산 투자는 12.3% 감소, 신규 매매는 28.9% 감소했다. 분양 미완공에 따른 주택구매자의 대출상환 거부가 은행 건전성을 압박한다. [실업과 전망] 전체 실업률은 5.4%이나 16~24세 청년실업률은 역대 최고인 19.9%로 발표되었다. 골드만삭스는 중국 GDP 성장률 전망을 3.3%에서 3.0%로 낮췄고, 정부 목표치(약 5.5%)를 크게 밑돈다. [규제 리스크] 알리바바는 반독점 조사를 받아 작년 28억 달러 벌금을 부과받았고, 지난달에도 추가 벌금을 받았다. 규제 강화와 사업 구조 변경 요구가 주가 압력으로 작용한다. [출연자 전망] 영상은 위 리스크들이 달리오의 매도 결정에 영향을 주었을 가능성을 제기하나, 매도 이유는 공시되지 않았다고 명시한다. 진행자는 알리바바 주가와 매도 결정에 대한 시청자 의견을 댓글로 요청한다.
다듬은 글
hedge funds recently filed a list of their second quarter stock market positions to the sec and the filing for ray dalio's hedge fund bridgewater associates which is the largest hedge fund in the world had some major surprises that are potentially a bad sign for chinese stocks like alibaba ray dalio has traditionally been one of the biggest bulls on wall street for chinese stocks just last november he even launched a fund for chinese investors and collected an equivalent of 1.25 billion dollars from these investors which was even larger than a rival offering from blackrock which is the world's largest asset manager but the latest sec filing for ray dalio's hedge fund revealed that they had completely sold all their shares in alibaba jd.com billy billy dd and many other chinese tech stocks this is a huge deal because ray dalio has traditionally been a huge alibaba stock bowl and had been buying shares in the company as recently as the first quarter of 2022 before promptly selling off his nearly 7.5 million shares just now in the second quarter of 2022 while we don't know exactly why ray dalio sold his stake in alibaba since the reasoning doesn't have to be disclosed to the sec there are several bad developments that have been taking place with chinese tech stocks there may have been reasons for why ray dalio sold all of his alibaba stock in this video we'll be taking a look at some negative developments that have happened surrounding chinese tech stocks to get a better picture of why ray dalio might have sold his stake in alibaba the first major development that's been occurring in recent months is the heightened possibility that chinese stocks could be delisted from american stock exchanges congress recently passed the holding foreign companies accountable act at the end of 2020 which requires the auditors for chinese companies listed on american stock exchanges to share information with american inspectors or they will be delisted from american stock exchanges the chinese government has never allowed access to see and inspect information for these chinese companies that are publicly listed but the united states is now forcing the issue that these chinese companies must comply with the inspection standards that other publicly traded companies do the act is currently requiring all chinese companies to comply by 2024 or they will be delisted from american stock exchanges this is a big deal because if the chinese government prevents these companies from sharing information with u.s regulators these chinese stocks will be delisted from u.s stock exchanges when a stock is delisted from american stock exchanges the stock most often continues to trade as an over-the-counter stock but there's much less liquidity in the over-the-counter markets and not every investor wants to own or even has access to over-the-counter stocks so if alibaba and other chinese stocks were to be delisted their stock price would likely fall heavily as a lot of american investors would exit once it became an over-the-counter stock to make matters even more pressing with the chinese stock delisting risk five chinese state-owned companies announced just a few weeks ago that they would be voluntarily delisting their stocks from the new york stock exchange these included the oil giant cinopec china life insurance aluminum corporation of china petrochina and sinopec shanghai petrochemical company they voluntarily are choosing to do list after the sec flagged these companies in may as not meeting u.s auditing standards for publicly traded companies the fact that these chinese state-owned companies are voluntarily delisting could be a bad sign that the chinese government will prevent many major chinese companies from sharing the information u.s regulators are requiring which would lead to them being delisted this could lead to major chinese tech stocks like alibaba jd.com and others being delisted if china's government determines that these companies are too important to china's national security interests for them to share this information with u.s regulators it's very possible that this may be why ray dalio sold all of his alibaba stock if he believes that these stocks may ultimately either be delisted or voluntarily de-list like some chinese stocks have already done another possible reason ray dalio might have sold all of his alibaba stock is that china's economy is slowing down very quickly with recent economic data being very weak and coming in below forecasts reuters reported that industrial output in china grew 3.8 in july from a year earlier according to the national bureau of statistics which was below the 3.9 percent expansion they had in june and the 4.6 increase that was expected by analysts in a reuters poll and china's retail sales which only just returned to growth in june rose 2.7 percent from a year ago which missed the consensus forecast for five percent growth analysts are worried that the recovery china's economy was seeing was just a temporary boost that came from reopening from lockdowns in some cities china's continued zero tolerance policy for covid cases has led to many continued lockdowns which has hurt the country's economy and manufacturing just earlier this year the commercial hub of shanghai had a two-month lockdown and other cities have experienced similar temporary lockdowns when cases are detected which has slowed consumer activity confidence and manufacturing to make matters worse for chinese stocks china's economy is also suffering from a rapidly deteriorating property and real estate sector china's property sector accounts for around a third of the country's gdp and housing makes up nearly 70 percent of chinese households wealth and almost 30 percent of bank loans are property related for the country so the worsening property market is a major risk for china's economy and potentially for chinese stocks like alibaba if the slowdown continues to affect consumer spending and confidence the property crisis has been brewing in the country as highly leveraged and indebted property developers continued to take on debt from investors to build real estate in the country but there has not been enough demand and cash flow to sustain these property developers in recent times this led to evergrand a chinese real estate developer with around 200 000 employees to default on its debt this has led to a serious cash crunch for chinese property developers and many others have defaulted on their debt since evergrand first defaulted these property developers are now unable to finish existing real estate projects they already sold to buyers because they have run out of cash to continue their operations since existing projects aren't being finished and chinese citizens know that these property developers are at risk of failing demand for property in real estate has been collapsing and existing buyers are threatening to not pay their mortgages unless the properties they pre-purchased are finished this in turn has been hurting chinese banks who gave loans to property developers that these developers can now no longer pay and the banks also gave mortgages to citizens they're now refusing to make mortgage payments on the unfinished projects they bought from these property developers so banks loan to both parties and are now struggling to be paid by either the property developers or the people that bought these properties the property crisis in china isn't getting any better either as the situation continued to worsen in july property investment tumbled 12.3 percent the fastest rate this year well the drop in new sales deepened to 28.9 percent to make matters even worse china's unemployment is 5.4 percent but the unemployment rate for young chinese people aged 16 to 24 hit a new high in july the official rate of 19.9 percent released by china's national bureau of statistics is a shockingly high number and means that one in five young chinese people are unemployed all this is causing economists to become more pessimistic about china's economy bloomberg reported that goldman sachs lowered its projection for chinese gross domestic product growth to 3 percent from 3.3 percent that's below the 3.8 consensus in a bloomberg survey of economists and is significantly below the chinese government's original target of around 5.5 percent growth that was set for the year the economic problems china is facing right now are widespread and could continue to deteriorate if the property crisis worsens like it has been this may have influenced ray dalio's decision to sell alibaba stock and many other chinese tech stocks in his portfolio another major thing that's become very clear is that china's government regulators have been very critical of alibaba and other chinese tech companies in recent times alibaba has been facing anti-monopoly scrutiny and has received multiple fines from the chinese government it faced a record 2.8 billion dollar fine from chinese regulators just last year and was fined again just as recently as last month for anti-monopoly reasons the increased scrutiny from china's government and the business changes they are requiring alibaba and other tech companies to make has been weighing on alibaba's stock and may be another reason that could have influenced ray dalio's decision to sell alibaba because of the delisting risk china's economic issues and the increased regulatory scrutiny there are a lot of negative factors currently facing alibaba's stock and other chinese tech stocks these increasing risks and the uncertainty surrounding alibaba stock may have been what ultimately prompted ray dalio to sell all of his alibaba steak and other chinese tech stocks that he had but be sure to let me know your thoughts on alibaba's stock and ray dalio's recent decision to sell it in the comments below and be sure to subscribe to the channel for more finance and investing content thanks
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